Friday, June 29, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (6/29/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 60.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 239; Democrats 196;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

0

13

0.5

3.5

Alaska

3

0

13

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

4.7

10

0.6743485

6.069136304

Arkansas

6

0

13

0.5

2

California

55

-16.8

47

0.0531022

2.81441925

Colorado

9

-3

34

0.3864895

2.705426451

Connecticut

7

-12

43

0.1242661

0.621330537

DC

3

0

13

0.5

0.5

Florida

0

29

-1.8

31

0.431291

11.64485755

Georgia

16

10

4

0.8318751

11.64625139

Hawaii

4

0

13

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

13

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

13

0.5

9

Indiana

11

9

5

0.8066017

7.259415399

Iowa

6

-2.5

32

0.4050099

1.620039763

Kansas

6

0

13

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

13

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

13

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

-20

48

0.0272273

0.245045487

Maine

4

-15.8

46

0.0643397

0.128679346

Maryland

10

0

13

0.5

4

Michigan

16

-3.5

36

0.3682241

5.155137468

Minnesota

10

-11.6

42

0.1323272

1.058617209

Mississippi

6

0

13

0.5

2

Missouri

10

3

11

0.6135105

4.908084056

Montana

3

7

6

0.7495649

0.749564866

Nebraska

5

13

2

0.8943652

2.683095604

Nevada

6

-5.3

37

0.3051488

1.220595041

New Hampshire

4

-6

38

0.2819829

0.563965856

New Jersey

14

-15

45

0.0745945

0.895133496

New Mexico

5

-12.3

44

0.1184502

0.355350539

New York

29

-25.2

49

0.0076915

0.20766963

North Carolina

15

0

2

12

0.5762543

7.491306465

North Dakota

3

13

2

0.8943652

0.894365201

Ohio

18

-2.6

33

0.4012873

6.420597338

Oklahoma

7

35

1

0.9996181

4.998090603

Oregon

7

-6

38

0.2819829

1.40991464

Pennsylvania

20

-8

40

0.2208632

3.975537421

Rhode Island

4

0

13

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

13

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

13

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

7

6

0.7495649

6.74608379

Texas

38

7

6

0.7495649

26.98433516

Utah

6

0

13

0.5

2

Vermont

3

-31

50

0.0014367

0.001436709

Virginia

13

-1.4

30

0.4464545

4.910999475

Washington

12

-11.5

41

0.1343975

1.343975078

West Virginia

5

0

13

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

-3

34

0.3864895

3.091915944

Wyoming

3

6

9

0.7180171

0.718017072

0

Total

315

220

10.3993

0.4482141

0.394341127

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

1

0.9908099

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

5

0.5

-1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-11

12

0.0230149

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Cilley

Lamontagne

0.3

4

0.5216967

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

7

2

0.8978902

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

5

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

5

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

2.7

3

0.6878308

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

0

5

0.5

-1

0

5.51345

0.5517702

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

6.4

4

0.7394609

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

0

10

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

24

0.3703719

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-6

26

0.2737272

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

32

0.0224674

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

21

1

0.9823773

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.2

9

0.5079993

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

10

0.5

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-12

29

0.1144575

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

0

10

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

6

7.5

0.7262728

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

-1.5

22

0.4402266

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

2

0.9197936

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

4.7

6

0.6812642

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-34

33

0.0003261

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11

28

0.1350364

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-4.5

25

0.3259284

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

3

7

0.6182125

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-10.8

27

0.1394392

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-15.2

30

0.0637543

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.1

22

0.4960001

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-16

31

0.0543338

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

9.3

3

0.8244474

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

8

0.5399323

1

0

9.97375

0.453813

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

30

0.8860188

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9243945

Arkansas 4

Cotton

0

8

10

10

10

7.6

38

0.8623202

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

82

0.4203738

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9243945

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

-10

-5

-5

-3.4

94

0.3127782

Arizona 9

Barber

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3333868

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

0

-1

-10

-10

-10

-6.2

107

0.186769

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

81

0.477109

California 9

McNerney

Gill

0

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

99

0.2638511

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7170523

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1440957

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

5

5

4.6

52

0.7454446

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9647307

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-10

-4.6

100

0.2545554

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

79

0.522891

California 31

Miller

0

-2

15

15

-5

4.6

52

0.7454446

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

38

0.8623202

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

0

-3

-5

-5

-10

-4.6

100

0.2545554

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

106

0.1945749

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

78

0.5457066

Colorado 3

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7072613

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

8

0.9283993

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

70

0.6239072

Connecticut 5

Murphy

McMahon

-3

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.7

113

0.134546

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

44

0.8354632

Florida 9

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

86

0.3545112

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7072613

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

30

0.8860188

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

33

0.8803861

Florida 16

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

15

8

36

0.8745598

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6239072

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

16

0.9202213

Florida 22

0

-5

0

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3333868

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

5

5

51

0.7635084

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

109

0.1575238

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

100

0.2545554

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

92

0.3230146

Illinois 12

Harriman

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

82

0.4203738

Illinois 13

Gill

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

67

0.6561119

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

92

0.3230146

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

55

0.7361489

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

30

0.8860188

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1254402

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1314616

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6239072

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7072613

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

0

9

-10

-5

-15

-4.2

98

0.2733168

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

112

0.1376798

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9428083

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2191567

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

130

0.0756055

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-5

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2191567

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9243945

Michigan 1

Benishek

0

3

5

5

10

4.6

52

0.7454446

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

33

0.8803861

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

23

0.9066569

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

15

10

15

8.2

33

0.8803861

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1314616

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8492899

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

10

15

8

36

0.8745598

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9322392

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4091847

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-10

-15

-7

109

0.1575238

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

43

0.8424762

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

1

5

10

5

4.2

56

0.7266832

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9322392

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0640818

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9158762

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0571917

New York 2

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

26

0.8967117

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

130

0.0756055

New York 1

Bishop

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3333868

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

126

0.0841238

New York 11

Grimm

0

5

5

10

10

6

46

0.8054251

New York 18

Hayworth

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

76

0.5796262

New York 19

Gibson

0

-1

0

5

5

1.8

73

0.6019309

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

49

0.7892292

New York 21

Owens

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

87

0.3438881

New York 24

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

97

0.2927387

New York 25

Slaughter

0

5

-5

-5

-10

-3

88

0.3333868

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

28

0.89146

New York 27

Hochul

0

7

0

5

5

3.4

64

0.6872218

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

8

0.9283993

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

5

0

5

1.6

75

0.5908153

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4091847

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

121

0.0982235

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9243945

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

77

0.5570629

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.4

108

0.17916

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

20

0.9113558

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

0

11

0

5

5

4.2

56

0.7266832

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

5

5.4

50

0.7808433

North Carolina 11

Rogers

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

28

0.89146

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

11

0.9243945

North Dakota 1

Heitkamp

Berg

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

22

0.9090289

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7170523

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

44

0.8354632

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

0

4

0

0

5

1.8

73

0.6019309

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

48

0.7974239

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

130

0.0756055

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

121

0.0982235

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9158762

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

114

0.1314616

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8492899

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8492899

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

67

0.6561119

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

0

6

0

0

-5

0.2

80

0.5114502

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

8

0.9283993

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

20

0.9113558

Pennsylvania 18

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

23

0.9066569

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

114

0.1314616

South Carolina 7

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

23

0.9066569

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9428083

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

126

0.0841238

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

95

0.3026841

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9359182

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9158762

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

69

0.6239072

Texas 34

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

126

0.0841238

Texas 35

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

121

0.0982235

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

0

13

0

0

5

3.6

63

0.6973159

Virginia 2

Rigell

0

5

5

10

10

6

46

0.8054251

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

120

0.1139812

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3026841

Washington 6

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

121

0.0982235

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1254402

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

26

0.8967117

Washington 10

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

121

0.0982235

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

4

0.9394399

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

105

0.2025761

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

129

0.0797787

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

66

0.6666132

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

64

0.6872218