Thursday, September 27, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (9/28/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 347; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 55.7% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 227; Democrats 211;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 232; Democrats 206

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

18

7

0.8106669

5.674668328

Alaska

3

25

5

0.8892818

0.889281777

Arizona

11

8.4

20

0.6594025

5.9346227

Arkansas

6

24

6

0.8797642

3.519056699

California

55

-20

44

0.1639942

8.691690117

Colorado

9

-2.1

25

0.4590973

3.213680804

Connecticut

7

-12.3

39

0.2737279

1.368639408

Delaware

3

-20

44

0.1639942

0.163994153

DC

3

-75

51

0.0001222

0.000122155

Florida

29

0

-2.2

26

0.4571568

12.34323475

Georgia

16

13.3

16

0.7423107

10.39235009

Hawaii

4

-27

49

0.0933283

0.186656522

Idaho

4

34

2

0.9518333

1.903666682

Illinois

20

-15

41

0.231587

4.168565976

Indiana

11

16

10

0.7830511

7.047459952

Iowa

6

-4

29

0.422448

1.689792061

Kansas

6

17

9

0.7971397

3.188558638

Kentucky

8

14

14

0.7532402

4.519441442

Louisiana

8

16

10

0.7830511

4.698306634

Massachusetts

11

-22.8

46

0.1323999

1.191598818

Maine

4

-15.2

42

0.2286161

0.457232167

Maryland

10

-23

47

0.1303157

1.042525608

Michigan

16

-8.6

35

0.3370182

4.718254737

Minnesota

10

-8.4

33

0.3405975

2.724779822

Mississippi

6

18

7

0.8106669

3.242667616

Missouri

10

7.3

21

0.6394666

5.11573305

Montana

3

10.3

18

0.6927848

0.692784831

Nebraska

5

12.5

17

0.7295189

2.188556801

Nevada

6

-3.4

28

0.4339645

1.735858149

New Hampshire

4

-2.3

27

0.4552174

0.910434896

New Jersey

14

-12.3

39

0.2737279

3.284734579

New Mexico

5

-10

37

0.3123901

0.937170192

New York

29

-26.3

48

0.0991694

2.677574181

North Carolina

15

0

-1

24

0.480496

6.246448378

North Dakota

3

15

12

0.768413

0.768413001

Ohio

18

-4.1

30

0.4205347

6.728555957

Oklahoma

7

29

4

0.921956

4.609780093

Oregon

7

-8.5

34

0.338806

1.694030086

Pennsylvania

20

-9.5

36

0.3210973

5.779751124

Rhode Island

4

-17

43

0.2028603

0.405720681

South Carolina

9

10

19

0.6876099

4.813269551

South Dakota

3

6

23

0.6154117

0.615411727

Tennessee

11

7

22

0.6339603

5.705643027

Texas

38

15

12

0.768413

27.66286805

Utah

6

42

1

0.9800202

3.920080601

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0351772

0.03517723

Virginia

13

0

-4.5

31

0.4129009

4.54190955

Washington

12

-12

38

0.278634

2.786339707

West Virginia

5

14

14

0.7532402

2.259720721

Wisconsin

10

-7.8

32

0.3514206

2.811365188

Wyoming

3

30

3

0.9288475

0.928847452

0

Total

347

191

20.4463

0.5064873

0.443280521

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

Cragg

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.7677279

1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.6

9

0.2754674

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

-3

8

0.4329844

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

1.5

4

0.533627

Gain

1

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

7.6

3

0.6655211

Gain

1

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9755299

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

11

0.0278835

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-0.7

7

0.4842928

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

10

0.1187085

-1

0

17.7745

0.4801584

2

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

7

2

0.7280676

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-18.5

30

0.0543395

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

-0.5

17

0.482709

-1

Delaware

Carper

Wade

0

8

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-8.3

24

0.2358537

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-12

27

0.1490456

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

1

6

0.5345495

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-2.6

18

0.4108148

Gain

-1

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

8

0.5

Gain

0

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-9.5

25

0.2050387

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-21.5

31

0.0311403

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

8

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-5.3

23

0.3229125

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

7

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

1.7

4

0.5585955

Gain

1

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

17

1

0.9297716

Gain

1

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

2.6

4

0.5891852

1

New York

Gillibrand

Long

-40

33

0.0002617

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11.7

26

0.1551668

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-8

23

0.2439382

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

3

0.6676947

Gain

1

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-7.2

22

0.2662083

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-13.2

28

0.1261897

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

Hinkley

0

8

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

8

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

0

8

0.5

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

0

8

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

MacGovern

0

8

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-4.4

19

0.3514051

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-13.5

29

0.1208793

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

32

0.0003601

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

-5

20

0.3323053

-1

Wyoming

Chesnut

Barrasso

1

6

0.5345495

1

0

11.5325

0.3797267

2

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

22

0.9013471

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9148996

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

6

0.9270064

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

-3

3

0

-5

-10

-2.7

86

0.3555717

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9148996

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-5

3

-10

-10

-10

-5.9

104

0.2091944

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

-5

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.5

90

0.3155975

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-10

-10

-7.7

109

0.1454612

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

77

0.4781241

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

102

0.2336356

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

7

5

5

5

10

5.7

50

0.7828306

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

114

0.1246381

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

44

0.8173279

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9580206

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-10

-4.6

96

0.2640474

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

80

0.41315

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

33

0.8809085

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

5

5

15

5.6

51

0.7787781

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

91

0.2916319

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

107

0.1685047

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

-5

-5

-2.2

84

0.381424

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

58

0.6988836

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.919092

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

3

1

0

0

5

1.5

72

0.5815006

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-6

2.5

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

87

0.3353515

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

42

0.8245022

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

0

-3

0

-10

-10

-4.6

96

0.2640474

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

9

4

0

15

-5

3.7

60

0.6940898

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

37

0.8753619

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

38

0.8696373

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

5

6

48

0.7947276

Florida 18

Murphy

West

-1

1

0

5

5

2.1

69

0.6133371

Florida 7

Kendall

Mica

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

17

0.9105464

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

100

0.2464261

Georgia 12

Barrow

Anderson

0

10

5

5

5

5

54

0.7535739

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

107

0.1685047

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

96

0.2640474

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

88

0.3303674

Illinois 12

Enyart

Plummer

-7

-2

0

0

-5

-2.1

83

0.3866629

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

65

0.6495243

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

13

-6

0

-5

5

0.1

74

0.5054716

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

10

5

5

5.4

52

0.7705447

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

5

15

6.4

45

0.8099732

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

112

0.1362667

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

125

0.0894536

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

62

0.6696326

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

58

0.6988836

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-9.5

9

-5

-5

-15

-4.15

94

0.2846113

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-15.5

-3

-15

-10

-15

-10.2

131

0.0819412

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

3

0.9343142

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

106

0.1826721

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

127

0.0851004

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

-7

-7

0

-5

-5

-4.1

92

0.2869425

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9148996

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

0

5

-5

0.6

72

0.5327934

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

8

6

10

10

15

9

28

0.8914736

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

25

0.8964958

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

0

1

10

5

15

6.2

47

0.8024393

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

116

0.1137215

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8383067

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

28

0.8914736

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

2

8

10

10

15

8.8

30

0.8862785

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-2

-3

0

0

-5

-1.8

82

0.4025003

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

112

0.1362667

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

5.7

7

10

5

10

6.97

41

0.830458

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

5

4.4

55

0.7269073

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

8

0.9231266

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

132

0.0729936

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

18

0.9060298

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

133

0.0656858

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8862785

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

127

0.0851004

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-8.7

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.87

99

0.252083

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0939702

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

13.5

5

5

5

10

6.35

46

0.8081065

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

11.5

2

0

0

5

2.55

67

0.6367359

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

16.5

-1

0

0

5

2.45

68

0.6315766

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

15

10

15

8.6

33

0.8809085

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-13

1

-5

-5

-10

-5.1

101

0.2421214

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-3

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.1

92

0.2869425

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-6

105

0.2052724

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

33

0.8809085

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

2

7

0

0

-5

0.6

72

0.5327934

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

9.5

6

15

15

15

11.15

2

0.9369035

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

5

0

5

1.6

70

0.58685

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

-5

0

-5

-2.6

85

0.3606937

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

-12

-5

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

134

0.0622513

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9148996

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

5

-5

0

75

0.5

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

8.5

-2

-10

-10

-5

-4.55

95

0.2662943

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

3

0.9343142

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

0

-5

3.1

63

0.6646485

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

-1.5

12

5

5

5

5.25

53

0.7642586

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

33

0.8809085

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

12

0.9148996

North Dakota 1

Gullleson

Cramer

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

24

0.8989426

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

56

0.7083681

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

42

0.8245022

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

-5

-0.4

77

0.4781241

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

49

0.7868398

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

127

0.0851004

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1085264

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

18

0.9060298

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

110

0.1423511

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

18

0.9060298

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

38

0.8696373

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

65

0.6495243

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-8

6

0

-5

-5

-1.6

80

0.41315

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.919092

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

22

0.9013471

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.919092

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

110

0.1423511

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

25

0.8964958

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

1

10

10

10

15

9.1

27

0.8940062

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0939702

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

-11

-13

0

-5

-5

-5.7

103

0.2171694

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

6

0.9270064

Texas 14

Lampson

Weber

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.9060298

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

-5

6

0

0

-5

-0.3

76

0.4835894

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0939702

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1085264

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-17

13

0

0

-10

-1.1

79

0.4400386

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

5

5

4

56

0.7083681

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

121

0.0986529

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

88

0.3303674

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1085264

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1085264

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8862785

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

127

0.0851004

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

5

0.9307345

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

115

0.1190915

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

125

0.0894536

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

64

0.6596352

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

61

0.6795103