Friday, April 27, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (4/27/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34), Obama at 54% of the vote.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 244; Democrats 191;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

0

6

0.5

3.5

Alaska

3

0

6

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

4.5

4

0.7985584

7.187025466

Arkansas

6

0

6

0.5

2

California

55

0

6

0.5

26.5

Colorado

9

-13

48

0.0078351

0.054845866

Connecticut

7

0

6

0.5

2.5

DC

3

0

6

0.5

0.5

Florida

29

-4.2

44

0.2174843

5.872077163

Georgia

16

0

6

0.5

7

Hawaii

4

0

6

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

6

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

6

0.5

9

Indiana

11

9

1

0.952833

8.575497068

Iowa

6

0

6

0.5

2

Kansas

6

0

6

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

6

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

6

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

-12

47

0.0128531

0.115677992

Maine

4

0

6

0.5

1

Maryland

10

0

6

0.5

4

Michigan

16

0

6

0.5

7

Minnesota

10

0

6

0.5

4

Mississippi

6

0

6

0.5

2

Missouri

10

3

5

0.7114601

5.691680965

Montana

3

0

6

0.5

0.5

Nebraska

5

0

6

0.5

1.5

Nevada

6

0

6

0.5

2

New Hampshire

4

-3.5

42

0.257653

0.515306088

New Jersey

14

-9

46

0.047167

0.566003909

New Mexico

5

-16

49

0.001469

0.004406851

New York

29

-24

50

4.074E-06

0.000110006

North Carolina

15

0

-1.5

41

0.3901885

5.072451008

North Dakota

3

0

6

0.5

0.5

Ohio

18

-5.3

45

0.1622651

2.596241681

Oklahoma

7

0

6

0.5

2.5

Oregon

7

0

6

0.5

2.5

Pennsylvania

20

0

6

0.5

9

Rhode Island

4

0

6

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

6

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

6

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

0

6

0.5

4.5

Texas

38

7

2

0.9034043

32.52255401

Utah

6

0

6

0.5

2

Vermont

3

0

6

0.5

0.5

Virginia

13

-4

43

0.2285773

2.514349961

Washington

12

0

6

0.5

5

West Virginia

5

0

6

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

0

6

0.5

4

Wyoming

3

6

3

0.8676413

0.867641345

0

Total

344

191

5.37967

0.4611879

0.447484757

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

4

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

1

0.965538

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

4

0.5

-1

Louisiana

Jindal

0

4

0.5

1

Mississippi

Barbour

0

4

0.5

1

Missouri

Nixon

-18

14

0.0058928

-1

Montana

Schweitzer

0

4

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Lynch

0

4

0.5

-1

North Carolina

Etheridge

McCrory

12

2

0.9534241

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

4

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

4

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

4

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

6.3

3

0.8109697

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

0

4

0.5

-1

0

7.14711

0.5525589

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

11

3

0.8668862

1

California

Feinstein

0

10

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

25

0.3693642

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-4.8

27

0.3137865

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

32

0.0216171

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Lugar

21

1

0.9831026

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

1

8

0.5402534

1

Maine

Pingree

Summers

-3

24

0.3808626

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-15

30

0.0647495

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

0

10

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

4

7.5

0.6569995

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

2

6

0.5800979

Gain

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Bruning

16.5

2

0.9523112

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

3

6

0.6191374

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-35

33

0.000202

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11.3

29

0.1267034

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-4.5

26

0.3246179

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

0

10

0.5

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-8.5

28

0.1951393

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

0

10

0.5

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.4

23

0.4838756

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-15

30

0.0647495

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

5

4

0.693347

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

8

0.5402534

1

0

9.89394

0.4629714

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

26

0.8925152

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9300562

Arkansas 4

Ross

0

8

10

5

5

5.6

50

0.79579

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

81

0.4181341

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9300562

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

81

0.4181341

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

0

-5

-2

86

0.3839046

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-5

-10

-5

-4.2

100

0.2676263

California 7

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

76

0.5933587

California 9

McNerney

0

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.4

95

0.307865

California 10

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

59

0.7225668

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1373298

California 21

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

63

0.7024414

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9685589

California 24

Capps

0

-3

-10

-5

-5

-4.6

102

0.2485511

California 26

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4066413

California 31

Miller

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

88

0.3615607

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

34

0.8690516

California 41

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

96

0.2975586

California 47

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

106

0.1878827

California 52

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

78

0.5470045

Colorado 3

Tipton

0

4

5

10

10

5.8

49

0.8040568

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

6

0.9339322

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

66

0.6816747

Connecticut 5

Murphy

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1373298

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

41

0.8422679

Florida 9

0

-3

0

-10

-10

-4.6

102

0.2485511

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

5

5

10

4.8

55

0.7607076

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

26

0.8925152

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

29

0.8869549

Florida 16

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

15

8

31

0.8811922

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

71

0.6273209

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

10

15

8.8

24

0.9030391

Florida 22

0

-5

0

-5

-5

-3

91

0.3289325

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

10

6

48

0.8121173

Illinois 8

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.1507209

Illinois 10

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

102

0.2485511

Illinois 11

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

93

0.3183253

Illinois 12

Costello

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

81

0.4181341

Illinois 13

Johnson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

68

0.6603207

Illinois 17

Schilling

0

-6

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

100

0.2676263

Indiana 2

Donnelly

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

52

0.7873189

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

26

0.8925152

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

120

0.1188078

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

116

0.124775

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

71

0.6273209

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

62

0.7125874

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

0

9

-5

-10

-10

-3.2

93

0.3183253

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

114

0.1309484

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.947794

Maryland 6

Bartlett

0

-2

-5

0

-5

-2.4

88

0.3615607

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

131

0.0699438

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-10

-10

-10

-7.4

111

0.1373298

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9300562

Michigan 1

Benishek

0

3

5

5

10

4.6

56

0.7514489

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

20

0.912786

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

36

0.8560797

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

15

10

15

8.2

29

0.8869549

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-10

-15

-7.8

116

0.124775

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

36

0.8560797

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

10

15

8

31

0.8811922

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

5

0.9376397

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

79

0.5235432

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-10

-15

-7

108

0.1507209

Montana 1

Rehberg

0

7

10

5

10

6.4

45

0.8276129

New Jersey 3

Runyan

0

1

5

10

10

5.2

53

0.7786461

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

17

0.9173762

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.058817

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

14

0.9217821

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.052206

New York 2

King

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

41

0.8422679

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

126

0.0919919

New York 1

Bishop

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

91

0.3289325

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

114

0.1309484

New York 11

Grimm

0

5

5

5

5

4

59

0.7225668

New York 18

Hayworth

0

2

0

5

5

2.4

70

0.6384393

New York 19

Gibson

0

-1

0

5

5

1.8

74

0.6047717

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

50

0.79579

New York 21

Owens

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

90

0.3396793

New York 24

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

99

0.2874126

New York 25

Slaughter

0

5

-5

-5

-5

-2

86

0.3839046

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

34

0.8690516

New York 27

Hochul

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

57

0.7420028

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

20

0.912786

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

0

10

5

10

5

54

0.7697746

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

79

0.5235432

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.1507209

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9300562

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

77

0.558679

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.4

107

0.1723871

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

17

0.9173762

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

0

11

0

0

5

3.2

65

0.6816747

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

10

6.4

45

0.8276129

North Carolina 11

Shuler

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

25

0.8978757

North Carolina 13

Miller

0

10

10

10

5

7

39

0.8492791

North Dakota 1

Berg

0

10

10

10

15

9

23

0.9080081

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

59

0.7225668

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

41

0.8422679

Ohio 16

Renacci

0

4

0

0

5

1.8

74

0.6047717

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

10

6.8

41

0.8422679

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

131

0.0699438

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-15

-15

-8

120

0.1188078

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

14

0.9217821

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

116

0.124775

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

36

0.8560797

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

10

6.2

47

0.8199697

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

68

0.6603207

Pennsylvania 12

Altmire

0

6

-5

-5

-5

-1.8

85

0.3952283

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

6

0.9339322

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

17

0.9173762

Pennsylvania 16

Pitts

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

6

0.9339322

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

116

0.124775

South Carolina 7

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

20

0.912786

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.947794

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

129

0.0782179

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

96

0.2975586

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

4

0.941183

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

14

0.9217821

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

71

0.6273209

Texas 34

0

-3

-10

-15

-15

-8.6

125

0.1021243

Texas 35

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

126

0.0919919

Utah 4

Matheson

0

13

0

0

5

3.6

63

0.7024414

Virginia 2

Rigell

0

5

10

10

10

7

39

0.8492791

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

124

0.1074848

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

96

0.2975586

Washington 6

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

126

0.0919919

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-10

-15

-8

120

0.1188078

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

10

15

7.8

33

0.875225

Washington 10

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

120

0.1188078

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

10

15

9.8

13

0.9260074

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

105

0.1959432

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

130

0.0739926

Wisconsin 7

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

67

0.6710675

Wisconsin 8

Ribble

0

2

5

5

10

4.4

57

0.7420028