2012 Election Polls and Models (3/30/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 233; Democrats 202;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 33; Democrats 15 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	2	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Arkansas		6	0	2	0.5	2
California	55		0	2	0.5	26.5
Colorado	9		0	2	0.5	3.5
Connecticut	7		0	2	0.5	2.5
DC	3		0	2	0.5	0.5
Florida	29		0	2	0.5	13.5
Georgia		16	0	2	0.5	7
Hawaii	4		0	2	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	2	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	2	0.5	9
Indiana		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Iowa	6		0	2	0.5	2
Kansas		6	0	2	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	2	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	2	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		0	2	0.5	4.5
Maine	4		0	2	0.5	1
Maryland	10		0	2	0.5	4
Michigan	16		0	2	0.5	7
Minnesota	10		0	2	0.5	4
Mississippi		6	0	2	0.5	2
Missouri		10	0	2	0.5	4
Montana		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Nebraska		5	0	2	0.5	1.5
Nevada	6		0	2	0.5	2
New Hampshire	4		0	2	0.5	1
New Jersey	14		0	2	0.5	6
New Mexico	5		0	2	0.5	1.5
New York	29		0	2	0.5	13.5
North Carolina		15	0	2	0.5	6.5
North Dakota		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Ohio	18		0	2	0.5	8
Oklahoma		7	0	2	0.5	2.5
Oregon	7		0	2	0.5	2.5
Pennsylvania	20		0	2	0.5	9
Rhode Island	4		0	2	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	2	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Texas		38	0	2	0.5	18
Utah		6	0	2	0.5	2
Vermont	3		0	2	0.5	0.5
Virginia	13		0	2	0.5	5.5
Washington	12		0	2	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	2	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		0	2	0.5	4
Wyoming		3	6	1	1	1
			0
Total	329	206	0.84853		0.51	0.501149425
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	3	0.5				-1
Indiana		Daniels	0	3	0.5				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	3	0.5				-1
Louisiana		Jindal	0	3	0.5				1
Mississippi		Barbour	0	3	0.5				1
Missouri	Nixon		-18	14	0.000405				-1
Montana	Schweitzer		0	3	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Lynch		0	3	0.5				-1
North Carolina	Bowles	McCrory	4	2	0.7716549	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	3	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	3	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	3	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	1	0.8794587	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin		0	3	0.5				-1
			0
			5.37412		0.5108228
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	11	2	0.9419945			1
California	Feinstein		0	10	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	27	0.3186341			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	5	4	0.7625184			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	33	0.0021336			-1
Indiana		Lugar	0	10	0.5			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	2	5	0.6124731			1
Maine	Pingree	Summers	-3	26	0.3340868	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-15	31	0.0160453			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi		Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	1	7.5	0.5568096	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin		0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	1.6	6	0.5904165	Gain		-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Bruning	16.5	1	0.9908035	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	2	5	0.6124731			1
New York	Gillibrand		0	10	0.5			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-13.5	30	0.0268684			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-5	28	0.2374816			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	10	0.5			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-8.5	29	0.1122735			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey		0	10	0.5			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	0	10	0.5			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	31	0.0160453			-1
West Virginia	Manchin		0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	5.5	3	0.784028	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5568096			1
			0
			6.99862		0.4688453
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	12	0.9122902
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	5	0.9252758
Arkansas 4	Ross		0	8	10	5	5	5.6	54	0.790233
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-10	-2.4	87	0.364688
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	5	8	29	0.875583
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	80	0.47701
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	0	-5	-2	85	0.3865599
California 3	Garamendi		0	-1	-5	-10	-15	-6.2	106	0.1857361
California 7		Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	76	0.5912017
California 9	McNerney		0	-2	-5	-5	-15	-5.4	97	0.2181665
California 10		Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	60	0.7178928
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	112	0.1430543
California 21			0	3	5	0	5	2.6	73	0.64609
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9653353
California 24	Capps		0	-3	-10	-5	-15	-6.6	107	0.1707062
California 26			0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4087983
California 31		Miller	0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	87	0.364688
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	37	0.863357
California 41			0	-3	-5	-5	-15	-5.6	99	0.209767
California 47			0	-5	-10	-5	-15	-7	109	0.1564783
California 52		Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	77	0.5459037
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	10	15	6.8	46	0.8365083
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	3	0.9292614
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	66	0.6776991
Connecticut 5	Murphy		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	112	0.1430543
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	15	7.8	35	0.869569
Florida 9			0	-3	-5	-10	-15	-6.6	107	0.1707062
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	5	15	15	7.8	35	0.869569
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	24	0.8870226
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	27	0.8814002
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	29	0.875583
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	0	15	3.2	65	0.6776991
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	10	15	8.8	21	0.8976911
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-15	-15	-7	109	0.1564783
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	10	6	50	0.8064503
Illinois 8		Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-5	-6	103	0.1935497
Illinois 10		Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-10	-5.6	99	0.209767
Illinois 11		Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.3223009
Illinois 12	Costello		0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	82	0.4200336
Illinois 13		Johnson	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	71	0.6567521
Illinois 17		Schilling	0	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	94	0.2724491
Indiana 2	Donnelly		0	7	5	5	10	5.4	56	0.7818335
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	5	6.4	47	0.8218788
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	119	0.124417
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	115	0.130431
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	0	-5	-0.8	81	0.4540963
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	63	0.7080728
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-5	-10	-5	-2.2	86	0.375574
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	114	0.136643
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9435884
Maryland 6		Bartlett	0	-2	-5	0	-5	-2.4	87	0.364688
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0747242
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-10	-10	-15	-8.4	122	0.1129774
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	10	5	7	44	0.8435217
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	15	5.6	54	0.790233
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.9076073
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8503341
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	27	0.8814002
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	115	0.130431
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8503341
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	29	0.875583
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	10	15	9.4	12	0.9122902
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	78	0.52299
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-10	-10	-15	-6	103	0.1935497
Montana 1		Rehberg	0	7	10	5	5	5.4	56	0.7818335
New Jersey 3		Runyan	0	1	5	5	15	5.2	59	0.7732434
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	12	0.9122902
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	132	0.0632598
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	9	0.9167937
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0564116
New Jersey 9	Rothman		0	-9	-15	-15	-15	-10.8	133	0.0597589
New Jersey 12	Holt		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0747242
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-5	-5	-15	-5	96	0.2355344
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-10	-15	-15	-8.6	124	0.1075478
New York 11		Grimm	0	5	5	10	15	7	44	0.8435217
New York 18		Hayworth	0	2	5	10	15	6.4	47	0.8218788
New York 19		Gibson	0	-1	5	10	15	5.8	51	0.7984394
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	22	0.8924522
New York 21	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-15	-4.8	95	0.2444964
New York 24		Buerkle	0	-4	-5	10	15	3.2	65	0.6776991
New York 25	Slaughter		0	5	-5	0	-15	-3	90	0.3327091
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	22	0.8924522
New York 27	Hochul		0	7	5	-15	-15	-3.6	92	0.3019035
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.9076073
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	0	0	10	5	5	4	60	0.7178928
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	78	0.52299
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	119	0.124417
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	5	0.9252758
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	5	5	2	74	0.6134401
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-5	-5.4	97	0.2181665
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	12	0.9122902
North Carolina 7	McIntyre		0	11	0	0	5	3.2	65	0.6776991
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	10	6.4	47	0.8218788
North Carolina 11	Shuler		0	13	10	10	5	7.6	37	0.863357
North Carolina 13	Miller		0	10	10	10	10	8	29	0.875583
North Dakota 1		Berg	0	10	10	10	15	9	20	0.9027419
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	60	0.7178928
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	5	5.8	51	0.7984394
Ohio 16		Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	75	0.6023625
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	51	0.7984394
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0747242
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-10	-10	-15	-7	109	0.1564783
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	9	0.9167937
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	115	0.130431
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8503341
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8503341
Pennsylvania 8		Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	71	0.6567521
Pennsylvania 12	Altmire		0	6	-5	-5	-5	-1.8	84	0.3976375
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.9076073
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	10	15	15	8.4	24	0.8870226
Pennsylvania 16		Pitts	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	3	0.9292614
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	115	0.130431
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.9076073
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	10	15	10	5	0.9252758
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	127	0.0832063
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-15	-5.6	99	0.209767
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	0	15	15	7.6	37	0.863357
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	9	0.9167937
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	10	3.2	65	0.6776991
Texas 34			0	-3	-10	-15	-15	-8.6	124	0.1075478
Texas 35			0	0	-15	0	-15	-6	103	0.1935497
Utah 4	Matheson		0	13	0	0	5	3.6	64	0.6980965
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	10	10	15	8	29	0.875583
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	122	0.1129774
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	92	0.3019035
Washington 6	Dicks		0	-6	-10	-15	-15	-9.2	126	0.0923927
Washington 3		Beutler	0	0	15	10	15	8	29	0.875583
Washington 8		Reichert	0	-3	15	15	15	8.4	24	0.8870226
Washington 10			0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	119	0.124417
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	10	15	9.8	8	0.9211211
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	102	0.2015606
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0788789
Wisconsin 7		Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	70	0.6672909
Wisconsin 8		Ribble	0	2	5	5	15	5.4	56	0.7818335