2012 Election Polls and Models (4/13/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 233; Democrats 202;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	2	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Arkansas		6	0	2	0.5	2
California	55		0	2	0.5	26.5
Colorado	9		0	2	0.5	3.5
Connecticut	7		0	2	0.5	2.5
DC	3		0	2	0.5	0.5
Florida	29		0	2	0.5	13.5
Georgia		16	0	2	0.5	7
Hawaii	4		0	2	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	2	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	2	0.5	9
Indiana		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Iowa	6		0	2	0.5	2
Kansas		6	0	2	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	2	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	2	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		0	2	0.5	4.5
Maine	4		0	2	0.5	1
Maryland	10		0	2	0.5	4
Michigan	16		0	2	0.5	7
Minnesota	10		0	2	0.5	4
Mississippi		6	0	2	0.5	2
Missouri		10	0	2	0.5	4
Montana		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Nebraska		5	0	2	0.5	1.5
Nevada	6		0	2	0.5	2
New Hampshire	4		0	2	0.5	1
New Jersey	14		0	2	0.5	6
New Mexico	5		0	2	0.5	1.5
New York	29		0	2	0.5	13.5
North Carolina		15	0	2	0.5	6.5
North Dakota		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Ohio	18		0	2	0.5	8
Oklahoma		7	0	2	0.5	2.5
Oregon	7		0	2	0.5	2.5
Pennsylvania	20		0	2	0.5	9
Rhode Island	4		0	2	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	2	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Texas		38	0	2	0.5	18
Utah		6	0	2	0.5	2
Vermont	3		0	2	0.5	0.5
Virginia	13		0	2	0.5	5.5
Washington	12		0	2	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	2	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		0	2	0.5	4
Wyoming		3	6	1	1	1
			0
Total	329	206	0.84853		0.51	0.501149425
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	4	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.9775018				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	4	0.5				-1
Louisiana		Jindal	0	4	0.5				1
Mississippi		Barbour	0	4	0.5				1
Missouri	Nixon		-18	14	0.002754				-1
Montana	Schweitzer		0	4	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Lynch		0	4	0.5				-1
North Carolina	Bowles	McCrory	4	3	0.7313257	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	4	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	4	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	4	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	2	0.8343511	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin		0	4	0.5				-1
			0
			6.4848		0.5389952
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	11	3	0.8787513			1
California	Feinstein		0	10	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	25	0.3629329			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-3.5	26	0.3549909			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.016792			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Lugar	21	1	0.9871688			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	1	7	0.5423086			1
Maine	Pingree	Summers	-3	24	0.3749563	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-15	30	0.0554934			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi		Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	1	7.5	0.5423086	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin		0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2	5	0.5841427	Gain		-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Bruning	16.5	2	0.9602119	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3	5	0.6250437			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-30	33	0.0007174			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-13.5	29	0.0757296			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-5	27	0.2976201			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	10	0.5			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-7.8	28	0.2036195			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey		0	10	0.5			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.2	23	0.491523			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	30	0.0554934			-1
West Virginia	Manchin		0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	5	4	0.7023799	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	7	0.5423086			1
			0
			9.41163		0.4592271
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	22	0.8886969
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	8	0.9267404
Arkansas 4	Ross		0	8	10	5	5	5.6	53	0.7919153
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-10	-2.4	87	0.3637455
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	5	8	27	0.8772908
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	81	0.4768435
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	0	-5	-2	85	0.3857599
California 3	Garamendi		0	-1	-5	-10	-15	-6.2	107	0.1840066
California 7		Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	75	0.5918514
California 9	McNerney		0	-2	-5	-5	-15	-5.4	97	0.2165066
California 10		Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	62	0.7193039
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	112	0.1413142
California 21			0	3	5	5	5	3.6	66	0.6994076
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9663332
California 24	Capps		0	-3	-10	-5	-15	-6.6	108	0.1689612
California 26			0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4081486
California 31		Miller	0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	87	0.3637455
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	35	0.8650889
California 41			0	-3	-5	-5	-15	-5.6	99	0.2080847
California 47			0	-5	-10	-5	-15	-7	110	0.15473
California 52		Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	77	0.5462351
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	10	15	6.8	43	0.8382564
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	6	0.9306935
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	69	0.6788981
Connecticut 5	Murphy		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	112	0.1413142
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	15	7.8	33	0.8712902
Florida 9			0	-3	-5	-10	-15	-6.6	108	0.1689612
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	5	5	15	5.8	50	0.8001406
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	22	0.8886969
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	25	0.8830924
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	27	0.8772908
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	15	4.2	61	0.7290073
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	10	15	8.8	21	0.8993232
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-5	-15	-5	95	0.233929
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	10	6	48	0.8081672
Illinois 8		Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-5	-6	104	0.1918328
Illinois 10		Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-10	-5.6	99	0.2080847
Illinois 11		Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3211019
Illinois 12	Costello		0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	82	0.4194615
Illinois 13		Johnson	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	72	0.6578279
Illinois 17		Schilling	0	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	93	0.2709927
Indiana 2	Donnelly		0	7	5	5	10	5.4	55	0.7834934
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	5	6.4	45	0.8236176
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	120	0.1227092
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	116	0.1287098
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	-5	0.2	80	0.5115832
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	65	0.7094354
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-5	-10	-5	-2.2	86	0.3747017
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	114	0.1349111
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9448817
Maryland 6		Bartlett	0	-2	-5	0	-5	-2.4	87	0.3637455
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	131	0.0732596
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-10	-10	-15	-8.4	124	0.1113031
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	5	8	27	0.8772908
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	15	5.6	53	0.7919153
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.9091897
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8520797
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	25	0.8830924
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	116	0.1287098
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8520797
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	27	0.8772908
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	5	0.9344801
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	78	0.5231565
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-10	-10	-15	-6	104	0.1918328
Montana 1		Rehberg	0	7	10	5	5	5.4	55	0.7834934
New Jersey 3		Runyan	0	1	5	5	15	5.2	59	0.7748777
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	14	0.9138453
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0618956
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	11	0.91832
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0551183
New York 2		King	0	-1	10	10	15	6.8	43	0.8382564
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	127	0.0956499
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-5	-5	-15	-5	95	0.233929
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	114	0.1349111
New York 11		Grimm	0	5	5	5	15	6	48	0.8081672
New York 18		Hayworth	0	2	0	10	15	5.4	55	0.7834934
New York 19		Gibson	0	-1	0	10	15	4.8	60	0.7570766
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	35	0.8650889
New York 21	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-15	-4.8	94	0.2429234
New York 24		Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-15	-5.8	102	0.1998594
New York 25	Slaughter		0	5	-5	-5	-15	-4	92	0.2806961
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	35	0.8650889
New York 27	Hochul		0	7	5	5	15	6.4	45	0.8236176
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.9091897
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	0	0	10	5	5	4	62	0.7193039
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	78	0.5231565
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	120	0.1227092
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	8	0.9267404
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	76	0.557721
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-5	-5.4	97	0.2165066
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	14	0.9138453
North Carolina 7	McIntyre		0	11	0	0	5	3.2	68	0.6788981
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	10	6.4	45	0.8236176
North Carolina 11	Shuler		0	13	10	10	5	7.6	35	0.8650889
North Carolina 13	Miller		0	10	10	10	10	8	27	0.8772908
North Dakota 1		Berg	0	10	10	10	15	9	20	0.9043501
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	62	0.7193039
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	5	5.8	50	0.8001406
Ohio 16		Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	74	0.6030882
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	50	0.8001406
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	131	0.0732596
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-10	-10	-15	-7	110	0.15473
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	11	0.91832
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	116	0.1287098
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8520797
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8520797
Pennsylvania 8		Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	72	0.6578279
Pennsylvania 12	Altmire		0	6	-5	-5	-5	-1.8	84	0.3969118
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.9091897
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	10	15	15	8.4	22	0.8886969
Pennsylvania 16		Pitts	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	6	0.9306935
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	116	0.1287098
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.9091897
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9448817
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	129	0.08168
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-15	-5.6	99	0.2080847
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	4	0.9381044
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	11	0.91832
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	10	3.2	68	0.6788981
Texas 34			0	-3	-10	-15	-15	-8.6	126	0.1058937
Texas 35			0	0	-15	0	-15	-6	104	0.1918328
Utah 4	Matheson		0	13	0	0	5	3.6	66	0.6994076
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	10	10	15	8	27	0.8772908
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	124	0.1113031
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	91	0.3005924
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	127	0.0956499
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-10	-15	-8	120	0.1227092
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	10	15	7.8	33	0.8712902
Washington 10			0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	120	0.1227092
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	10	15	9.8	10	0.9226172
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	102	0.1998594
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	130	0.0773828
Wisconsin 7		Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	71	0.6684297
Wisconsin 8		Ribble	0	2	5	5	15	5.4	55	0.7834934