2012 Election Polls and Models (5/11/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 344; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 54% of the vote.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 244; Democrats 191;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 344; Republican 191

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	7	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	7	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	4.2	5	0.7673936	6.906542225
Arkansas		6	0	7	0.5	2
California	55		0	7	0.5	26.5
Colorado	9		-13	48	0.0118975	0.083282767
Connecticut	7		0	7	0.5	2.5
DC	3		0	7	0.5	0.5
Florida	29		-0.4	38	0.4722753	12.75143425
Georgia		16	0	7	0.5	7
Hawaii	4		0	7	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	7	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	7	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	1	0.9411977	8.470779296
Iowa	6		0	7	0.5	2
Kansas		6	0	7	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	7	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	7	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-12	46	0.0184647	0.166182456
Maine	4		0	7	0.5	1
Maryland	10		0	7	0.5	4
Michigan	16		0	7	0.5	7
Minnesota	10		0	7	0.5	4
Mississippi		6	0	7	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	6	0.699038	5.592304359
Montana		3	7	2	0.8882265	0.888226477
Nebraska		5	0	7	0.5	1.5
Nevada	6		-7.4	44	0.0990991	0.396396548
New Hampshire	4		-3.5	41	0.271403	0.542806089
New Jersey	14		-9	45	0.0588023	0.705627606
New Mexico	5		-15	49	0.0045513	0.013653795
New York	29		-24	50	1.503E-05	0.000405676
North Carolina	15	0	-2.4	39	0.3382263	4.396942232
North Dakota		3	0	7	0.5	0.5
Ohio	18		-4.2	42	0.2326064	3.721702712
Oklahoma		7	0	7	0.5	2.5
Oregon	7		0	7	0.5	2.5
Pennsylvania	20		-7	43	0.1117735	2.01192341
Rhode Island	4		0	7	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	7	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	7	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	0	7	0.5	4.5
Texas		38	7	2	0.8882265	31.97615318
Utah		6	0	7	0.5	2
Vermont	3		0	7	0.5	0.5
Virginia	13		-3.2	40	0.2889648	3.178612482
Washington	12		0	7	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	7	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-12.4	47	0.0155381	0.124305063
Wyoming		3	6	4	0.8515888	0.851588754
			0
Total	344	191	5.75114		0.4491858	0.436273263
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	4	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.965538				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	4	0.5				-1
Louisiana		Jindal	0	4	0.5				1
Mississippi		Barbour	0	4	0.5				1
Missouri	Nixon		-18	14	0.0058928				-1
Montana	Schweitzer		0	4	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Lynch		0	4	0.5				-1
North Carolina	Etheridge	McCrory	12	2	0.9534241	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	4	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	4	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	4	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	3	0.8109697	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin		0	4	0.5				-1
			0
			7.14711		0.5525589
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	10.3	3	0.8496689			1
California	Feinstein		0	10	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	25	0.3700932			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-8.4	27	0.1993097			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.0222295			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Lugar	21	1	0.9825804			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	1	8	0.5400211			1
Maine	Pingree	Summers	-3	24	0.3815317	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-15	30	0.0658666			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi		Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	4	7.5	0.6561386	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin		0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2.5	6	0.5991769	Gain		-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Bruning	16.5	2	0.9513446	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	4.4	5	0.6708068			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35	33	0.0002182			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11.3	29	0.1280827			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-4.5	26	0.3255658			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	10	0.5			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-8.5	28	0.1965143			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey		0	10	0.5			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.5	23	0.4799642			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	30	0.0658666			-1
West Virginia	Manchin		0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	5	4	0.6923189	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5400211			1
			0
			9.95155		0.4611309
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	28	0.88865
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9266995
Arkansas 4	Ross		0	8	10	10	5	6.6	46	0.8309899
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4194776
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9266995
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4194776
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	89	0.3316024
California 3	Garamendi		0	-1	-5	-10	-5	-4.2	99	0.2710336
California 7		Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	75	0.5918331
California 9	McNerney		0	-2	-5	-5	-5	-3.4	94	0.310809
California 10		Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.7192642
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.141363
California 21			0	3	5	5	5	3.6	62	0.6993707
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9663054
California 24	Capps		0	-3	-10	-5	-5	-4.6	102	0.2521448
California 26			0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4081669
California 31		Miller	0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	86	0.363772
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	36	0.8650404
California 41			0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3006293
California 47			0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.191881
California 52		Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	78	0.5462258
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	5	10	4.8	55	0.7570324
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9306535
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	65	0.6788644
Connecticut 5	Murphy		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.141363
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	43	0.8382074
Florida 9			0	-3	0	-10	-10	-4.6	102	0.2521448
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	5	5	10	4.8	55	0.7570324
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	28	0.88865
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	31	0.883045
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	34	0.8772429
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	70	0.6252738
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	10	15	8.8	23	0.8992775
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-5	-5	-3	89	0.3316024
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	10	6	50	0.808119
Illinois 8		Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.154779
Illinois 10		Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	102	0.2521448
Illinois 11		Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	92	0.3211356
Illinois 12	Costello		0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	86	0.363772
Illinois 13		Johnson	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	68	0.6577977
Illinois 17		Schilling	0	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	99	0.2710336
Indiana 2	Donnelly		0	7	5	5	10	5.4	52	0.7834468
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	28	0.88865
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	119	0.1227571
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	115	0.1287581
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	70	0.6252738
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	61	0.7093971
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-10	-5	-10	-3.2	92	0.3211356
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	114	0.1349596
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9448456
Maryland 6		Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-5	-5	-4.4	101	0.2615016
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0733005
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-10	-10	-10	-7.4	111	0.141363
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9266995
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	10	4.6	57	0.7478552
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	31	0.883045
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	37	0.8520308
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	31	0.883045
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	115	0.1287581
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	37	0.8520308
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	34	0.8772429
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9344411
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	79	0.5231519
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-10	-15	-7	108	0.154779
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	40	0.845221
New Jersey 3		Runyan	0	1	5	10	10	5.2	53	0.7748318
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	16	0.9138018
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0619337
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	13	0.9182773
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0551544
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	23	0.8992775
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0733005
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	89	0.3316024
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0817227
New York 11		Grimm	0	5	5	10	5	5	54	0.7660259
New York 18		Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	76	0.5805224
New York 19		Gibson	0	-1	0	5	5	1.8	73	0.6030678
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	10	5.6	51	0.791868
New York 21	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	88	0.3422023
New York 24		Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	98	0.2906029
New York 25	Slaughter		0	5	-5	-5	-5	-2	85	0.3857824
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	26	0.89406
New York 27	Hochul		0	7	15	5	5	6.4	47	0.8235688
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	19	0.9091455
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	0	0	5	0	10	3	66	0.6683976
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	79	0.5231519
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.154779
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9266995
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	77	0.5577094
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	107	0.1764312
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	16	0.9138018
North Carolina 7	McIntyre		0	11	0	0	5	3.2	64	0.6788644
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	10	6.4	47	0.8235688
North Carolina 11	Shuler		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	26	0.89406
North Carolina 13	Miller		0	10	10	10	5	7	40	0.845221
North Dakota 1		Berg	0	10	10	10	15	9	22	0.9043051
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.7192642
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	43	0.8382074
Ohio 16		Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	73	0.6030678
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	10	6.8	43	0.8382074
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0733005
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-10	-15	-15	-8	119	0.1227571
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	13	0.9182773
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	115	0.1287581
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	37	0.8520308
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	10	6.2	49	0.8159448
Pennsylvania 8		Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	68	0.6577977
Pennsylvania 12	Critz		0	6	0	0	-5	0.2	81	0.5115808
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9306535
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	16	0.9138018
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	19	0.9091455
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	115	0.1287581
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	19	0.9091455
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9448456
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0817227
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	95	0.3006293
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9380663
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	13	0.9182773
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	70	0.6252738
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0817227
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	123	0.0956949
Utah 4	Matheson		0	13	0	0	5	3.6	62	0.6993707
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	10	10	10	7	40	0.845221
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	122	0.11135
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3006293
Washington 6			0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0733005
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-10	-15	-8	119	0.1227571
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	23	0.8992775
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	123	0.0956949
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9415331
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	105	0.1999072
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0774246
Wisconsin 7		Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	66	0.6683976
Wisconsin 8		Ribble	0	2	5	5	10	4.4	58	0.7384984