2012 Election Polls and Models (7/27/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 58.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	15	3	0.891125	6.237874714
Alaska		3	0	15	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	6.8	11	0.7118332	6.406499053
Arkansas		6	0	15	0.5	2
California	55		-17.2	47	0.0787831	4.175505373
Colorado	9		-2.9	34	0.4058282	2.840797445
Connecticut	7		-12	44	0.1620601	0.810300486
DC	3		0	15	0.5	0.5
Florida	0	29	-1.1	30	0.4639903	12.52773922
Georgia		16	10	6	0.7943729	11.12122098
Hawaii	4		0	15	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	15	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	15	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	7	0.7702043	6.931838454
Iowa	6		-1.3	32	0.4574661	1.829864325
Kansas		6	0	15	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	15	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	15	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-19.2	48	0.0573239	0.515915324
Maine	4		-15.4	46	0.1028639	0.205727813
Maryland	10		0	15	0.5	4
Michigan	16		-1.5	33	0.4509533	6.313345691
Minnesota	10		-10.5	42	0.1941311	1.553049069
Mississippi		6	0	15	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	13	0.5973549	4.778839559
Montana		3	7	8	0.7174159	0.717415901
Nebraska		5	13	5	0.8572838	2.571851287
Nevada	6		-5.2	37	0.3345884	1.338353601
New Hampshire	4		-5.3	38	0.3316016	0.663203196
New Jersey	14		-15.3	45	0.1043436	1.252123036
New Mexico	5		-10.7	43	0.1896446	0.568933731
New York	29		-26	49	0.0163238	0.440742708
North Carolina	15	0	0.4	14	0.5131099	6.670428604
North Dakota		3	14	4	0.875003	0.875003019
Ohio	18		-4.3	35	0.361922	5.790751845
Oklahoma		7	35	2	0.9979857	4.98992839
Oregon	7		-6	39	0.3110016	1.555008216
Pennsylvania	20		-7.4	40	0.2715773	4.888391392
Rhode Island	4		0	15	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	15	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	15	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	7	8	0.7174159	6.456743105
Texas		38	7	8	0.7174159	25.82697242
Utah		6	40	1	0.9994933	3.997973016
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.005429	0.005429019
Virginia	13		-1.2	31	0.4607269	5.067995788
Washington	12		-10.2	41	0.200981	2.009809881
West Virginia		5	0	15	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-4.8	36	0.346639	2.773111881
Wyoming		3	6	12	0.6889984	0.688998357
			0
Total	315	220	12.1701		0.4731438	0.413557899
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	6	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.8771854				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	6	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11	12	0.1629487				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	6	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	0.3	5	0.5106876				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	5	3	0.6724002	Gain			-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9991136				1
Utah		Herbert	0	6	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	6	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	2.5	4	0.5883394	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	6	0.5				-1
			0
			11.1969		0.5675562
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	7.4	3	0.7535015			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	31	0.0524838			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	23	0.3799096			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	11	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-1.4	21	0.4484024			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-13	28	0.1142282			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.9741414			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.2	10	0.5073913			1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	11	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-12	26	0.133133			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-25	32	0.0102778			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	11	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	6	7.5	0.7108437	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	10	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	-1.5	21	0.4447398			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.9026821	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	4.2	7	0.6513974			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35.5	33	0.0005031			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-12.3	27	0.1272483			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-5.5	24	0.3051903			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	6	0.6783929			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-9	25	0.2022033			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-15.8	30	0.0716323			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	11	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	11	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	11	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	11	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	11	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	0.3	9	0.5110862	Gain		-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	29	0.1055283			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	11	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	6.6	4	0.7295447	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.536906			1
			0
			10.7943		0.4348899
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8824964
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9212839
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126428
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4215513
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9212839
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	-10	-5	-5	-3.4	92	0.3153725
Arizona 9	Barber		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3357362
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	0	-1	-10	-10	-10	-6.2	108	0.1903706
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	79	0.4774517
California 9	McNerney	Gill	0	-2	-5	-5	-5	-3.4	92	0.3153725
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7141346
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1477383
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	47	0.8246112
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9625714
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3053923
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	76	0.5225483
California 31		Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	30	0.8879759
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	39	0.8586913
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3053923
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	107	0.1981476
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	75	0.5450247
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7044453
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9253538
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6221101
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.7	104	0.2101666
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	5	10	5	4.8	54	0.7513059
Florida 9	Grayson	Buchanan	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3565941
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	15	15	5	7.8	38	0.8649285
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8824964
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	36	0.8768297
Florida 16	Fitzgerald		0	5	10	5	10	6	51	0.8018524
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	67	0.6221101
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.9170479
Florida 22		Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	100	0.2858654
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	53	0.7601795
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	110	0.1611769
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	101	0.2577396
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3254892
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	82	0.4215513
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6538932
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3254892
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	55	0.733047
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8824964
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	115	0.1290258
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	112	0.1350715
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	67	0.6221101
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7044453
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	98	0.3004553
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.1067297
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9400432
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	109	0.1827839
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0787161
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-5	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2226033
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9212839
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	5	2.6	66	0.6434059
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	36	0.8768297
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.9033125
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	50	0.8096294
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1067297
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.845639
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	27	0.8983817
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126428
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4105223
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	115	0.1290258
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8388231
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	10	5.4	52	0.7773967
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9292612
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0669905
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126428
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0599568
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8932703
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0787161
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3357362
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0873572
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	15	5	5	10	10	7.5	40	0.8555006
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	73	0.5784487
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	0	-1	0	0	-5	-1.2	81	0.4326422
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	47	0.8246112
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	87	0.3461068
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	99	0.2955547
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	102	0.2398205
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	30	0.8879759
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	0	-5	0.4	76	0.5225483
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9253538
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	71	0.5894777
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4105223
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1016183
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9212839
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	74	0.5562136
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	6	-2	-10	-10	-10	-5.8	105	0.2061135
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9080653
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	0	11	0	5	5	4.2	56	0.7236702
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	0	12	5	5	10	6.4	49	0.8172161
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	30	0.8879759
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.9212839
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.905711
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7141346
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8318137
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-3	4	0	0	5	1.5	72	0.5839715
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	10	6.8	45	0.8318137
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0787161
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1016183
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126428
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	112	0.1350715
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.845639
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.845639
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6538932
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	80	0.4662
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9253538
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9080653
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.9033125
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	112	0.1350715
South Carolina 7			0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9253538
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9400432
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0873572
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	94	0.3053923
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9330095
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126428
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	67	0.6221101
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0873572
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1016183
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-15	13	0	0	-5	0.1	78	0.5056399
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7141346
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.0919347
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3053923
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1016183
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1016183
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8932703
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0787161
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9366022
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	105	0.2061135
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0829521
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6642638
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.6846275