2012 Election Polls and Models (11/1/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 290; Republican 248 (R +75), Obama at 51.1% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 245; Democrats 193;

Popular Vote Projection: 49.1% Romney – 49% Obama – 1.9% other candidates

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 290; Republican 248

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 238; Democrats 200

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	19	10	0.8106099	5.674269596
Alaska		3	25	6	0.8765858	0.876585754
Arizona		11	5.3	23	0.5969709	5.37273851
Arkansas		6	27	4	0.8944842	3.577936968
California	55		-13.8	42	0.2613256	13.85025551
Colorado	0	9	0	26	0.5	3.5
Connecticut	7		-11.7	38	0.2939145	1.469572505
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.177101	0.177100973
DC	3		-75	51	0.0002561	0.000256131
Florida	0	29	1.3	25	0.52401	14.14827006
Georgia		16	12.3	18	0.7155862	10.0182061
Hawaii	4		-29.5	49	0.0858843	0.171768663
Idaho		4	38	3	0.9608209	1.921641757
Illinois	20		-15	43	0.2435739	4.384331034
Indiana		11	13	17	0.7264813	6.538331282
Iowa	6		-2.3	30	0.4575754	1.830301473
Kansas		6	20	8	0.822899	3.291596108
Kentucky		8	15	15	0.7564261	4.538556322
Louisiana		8	18	11	0.7978096	4.786857318
Massachusetts	11		-15.7	44	0.2335276	2.101748596
Maine	4		-13	41	0.2735187	0.547037493
Maryland	10		-20.7	46	0.1688055	1.350444318
Michigan	16		-4	34	0.4264992	5.970989457
Minnesota	10		-5.3	35	0.4030291	3.224232436
Mississippi		6	20	8	0.822899	3.291596108
Missouri		10	11	20	0.6948195	5.558556292
Montana		3	10	21	0.678402	0.678401977
Nebraska		5	14	16	0.7416785	2.225035493
Nevada	6		-2.4	32	0.4557382	1.822952992
New Hampshire	4	0	-2	29	0.463092	0.926184029
New Jersey	14		-11.8	39	0.2923209	3.507850862
New Mexico	5		-9.3	37	0.3333038	0.999911535
New York	29		-26.4	48	0.1106762	2.988256952
North Carolina	0	15	3	24	0.5552633	7.218422262
North Dakota		3	17.7	12	0.7938708	0.793870758
Ohio	18		-1.9	28	0.4649325	7.438920451
Oklahoma		7	27	4	0.8944842	4.47242121
Oregon	7		-6	36	0.3905289	1.952644308
Pennsylvania	20		-3.7	33	0.4319558	7.775205292
Rhode Island	4		-25	47	0.1234142	0.246828493
South Carolina		9	12	19	0.7108542	4.975979209
South Dakota		3	9	22	0.6616284	0.661628377
Tennessee		11	25	6	0.8765858	7.889271782
Texas		38	17	13	0.7845052	28.24218577
Utah		6	52	1	0.9919979	3.967991725
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0432672	0.043267218
Virginia	0	13	0	26	0.5	5.5
Washington	12		-12.3	40	0.2844138	2.844138497
West Virginia		5	16	14	0.7707066	2.312119668
Wisconsin	10		-2.3	30	0.4575754	3.660602946
Wyoming		3	40	2	0.9680545	0.968054475
			0
Total	281	257	21.5873		0.5353856	0.488012246	0.443775221	0.492
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	4	0.7119839				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11.3	9	0.3134605				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	-0.6	7	0.4897049				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	14.3	3	0.7307586	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	25	2	0.8588944				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	53	1	0.9886895				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0718026				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.8	8	0.4862744				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1831816				-1
			0
			23.2479		0.5304319		1
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	0.7	9	0.5152497			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-20.6	28	0.1302534			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-4	17	0.4135259			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	0	11	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6	21	0.3715593			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-19	27	0.1496815			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	5	5	0.6076139			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-4.5	19	0.4029205	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	11	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-13	24	0.2388292			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-31	31	0.0452037			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	11	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-4.2	20	0.4092757			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	-28.5	29	0.0597708			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	0.3	9	0.5065369	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	4	0.8234409	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3.7	4.8	0.5800799			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-41.4	33	0.01187			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-17.3	26	0.1723436			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-10.7	23	0.2794603			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	5	0.6076139			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-4.7	20	0.3986978			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-6	21	0.3715593			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	-27.5	29	0.0665383			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	38	2	0.9810345			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	22	3	0.885253			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	41	1	0.9874371			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	0	11	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-2	16	0.4565052			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-17	25	0.1765591			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	32	0.0165767			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-1	15	0.4782202			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	8	0.5217798			1
			0
			18.308		0.4141027		1
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	25	7	15	15	15	12.9	2	0.9575328
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9091375
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	29	8	15	15	15	13.5	1	0.964296
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	1	3	0	-5	-5	-1.3	82	0.4310859
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9091375
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-6.1	3	-10	-10	-10	-6.01	101	0.2110992
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-2.5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.25	92	0.332135
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-15	-10	-8.7	115	0.1226477
California 7	Bera	Lungren	9	3	0	-5	5	1.5	74	0.5793846
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-5	-4.3	97	0.2828997
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	4.5	5	0	-5	10	2.45	73	0.6282373
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1046786
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	4	3	10	10	10	7	48	0.8250605
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	3	0.9537818
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	1	-3	-5	-5	5	-1.5	83	0.4206154
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	87	0.3642129
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	35	0.8746185
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	5	3	0	5	5	3.1	66	0.6605605
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	95	0.2966067
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	107	0.1749395
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	2	-1	0	-5	5	0	78	0.5
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	11	4	5	5	5	4.9	55	0.7435654
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9134282
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	5	5	2.5	73	0.6307595
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-5	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3	90	0.344343
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	-1	4	5	10	10	5.7	53	0.7767353
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	-13	-3	0	-15	-15	-7.9	111	0.1457091
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	3	4	-5	-5	-5	-1.9	84	0.399849
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	6	7	5	5	15	7	48	0.8250605
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	9	1	15	15	15	10.1	13	0.9113022
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	17	5	10	10	10	8.7	34	0.8773523
Florida 18	Murphy	West	6	1	0	5	5	2.8	69	0.6457716
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	19	0.9046911
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	-6	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6.6	105	0.1890492
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	-3	10	0	5	5	3.7	61	0.6893897
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	-11	-5	-10	-5	-10	-7.1	108	0.1715193
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	3	-8	-5	-5	5	-2.3	86	0.3793622
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	-1	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.3	97	0.2828997
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-2.5	-2	0	5	-5	-0.65	79	0.4654132
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	-4	-1	0	-5	-5	-2.6	87	0.3642129
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	3	-6	0	-5	-5	-2.9	89	0.3492729
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	10	10	7.4	45	0.838483
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	10	5.4	54	0.7645913
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	112	0.1426768
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-10	-5	-15	-6.8	106	0.1819088
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6654371
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	4	4	5	5	5	4.2	57	0.7125652
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	0	-5	-5	-0.7	80	0.4627602
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	133	0.0682383
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	4	0.9290848
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-1.5	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.55	104	0.1908609
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0908625
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	7.5	-7	5	5	10	3.35	63	0.6726996
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9091375
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	-6	3	0	-5	-5	-2	85	0.394699
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	9	6	10	5	15	8.1	39	0.8603126
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	27	0.8903939
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	8	1	10	10	10	7	48	0.8250605
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	116	0.1199559
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	8	1	10	10	15	8	41	0.8573232
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	31	0.885302
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	5.5	8	5	10	15	8.15	38	0.8617912
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-4	-3	0	-5	-5	-3	90	0.344343
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	112	0.1426768
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	7	7	10	10	10	8.1	39	0.8603126
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	13.5	2	5	10	10	6.75	51	0.8163221
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	9	0.9175656
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0784477
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	20	0.9000864
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0709152
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	32	0.8800441
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0908625
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-6	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3153412
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0999136
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	12	5	5	10	10	7.2	47	0.8318579
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	5	2	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6507271
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	9	-1	0	5	5	2.7	70	0.6407914
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	20	0.9000864
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-13	1	-10	-5	-10	-6.1	102	0.2076414
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-4	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	96	0.2874348
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	-11	-5	-10	-5	-10	-7.1	108	0.1715193
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	5	3	15	10	15	9.1	30	0.8878686
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	4	7	0	5	5	3.8	60	0.6940895
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	7	6	15	15	15	10.9	6	0.9272559
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	2	0	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6654371
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	-2	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	94	0.3059105
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-14	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.4	134	0.063951
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9091375
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	9	0	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6507271
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	11	-2	0	-5	5	0.7	76	0.5372398
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	4	0.9290848
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	11	11	0	-5	-5	1.3	75	0.5689141
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	2	12	10	10	10	8.6	35	0.8746185
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	35	0.8746185
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	14	0.9091375
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	5	10	10	10	15	9.5	24	0.8977241
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	1	5	5	5	5	4.1	58	0.707996
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	15	10	7.8	43	0.8512155
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	-5	5	0.6	77	0.5319322
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	10	5	10	7.8	43	0.8512155
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0908625
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.114698
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	20	0.9000864
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	19.5	6	-15	-15	-15	-5.85	100	0.217329
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	20	0.9000864
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	27	0.8903939
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	2	-1	5	10	5	4	59	0.7033933
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-4	6	0	-5	-5	-1.2	81	0.4363399
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9134282
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	25	0.8953214
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9134282
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	110	0.1487845
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	27	0.8903939
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	4	10	10	10	15	9.4	25	0.8953214
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0999136
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	1	-13	-5	-5	-10	-6.5	103	0.1926833
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	8	0.9215523
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	3	8	5	10	15	7.9	42	0.8542909
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	2.5	6	0	5	5	3.45	62	0.6775055
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0999136
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.114698
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-0.5	13	0	5	-5	2.55	71	0.6332762
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	13	5	10	10	5	7.3	46	0.835192
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1046786
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	1	-3	-5	-10	-10	-5.5	99	0.2313207
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	-15	-5	-10	-15	-15	-10.5	130	0.0804224
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.114698
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	32	0.8800441
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0908625
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	7	0.9253911
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	114	0.1253815
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0953089
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	6	0	5	5	10	4.6	56	0.7304957
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	10	10	10	6.4	52	0.8036403