Latinos and Democrats

Hispanics have been breaking heavily for Democrats over the past few election cycles. States such as New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado were all once strong conservative states, but now they are all solid liberal states thanks in part to a large influx of Latino voters. The tables below show the ethnicity breakdown for the past four presidential elections.

Table I: Percent of the Electorate

Year	White	African-American	Hispanic	Asian	Other
2000	81	10	7	2	1
2004	77	11	8	2	2
2008	74	13	9	2	3
2012	72	13	10	3	2

Table II: Percent of the Democratic Vote

Year	White	African-American	Hispanic	Asian	Other
2000	42	90	62	55	55
2004	41	88	53	56	54
2008	43	95	67	62	66
2012	39	93	71	73	72

Tables I and II show that not only are minorities making up a larger portion of the electorate, the Democrats are garnering a larger majority of the minority vote. Hispanics make up about 15% of the U.S. population today (White’s make up 66%, African Americans 13%, and Asians 5%). By 2050, many estimate that the Hispanic population will grow to 29% of the U.S. population whereas the White population will only be 47% (Asians will make up 9% and African-American’s about 13%). The trends in Tables I and II and the estimated growth of the Latino population have rightfully gotten Republicans concerned.

However, Michael Barone wrote an interesting article and he makes the following points:

• From 1995 to 2000 there was a net influx of 2.2 million more Hispanics moving to the U.S than Americans moving to Mexico.
• From 2005 to 2010 there was a net influx of 20,000 more Americans moving to Mexico than Hispanics moving to the U.S.
• Barone notes the most significant reason immigrants come to America is for economic reasons. And while the American economy has been mostly stagnant the past 5 years many Asian and Latin American economies are growing and Mexico is becoming a middle class nation.
• A pew report shows a decline in the Hispanic American birthrate by 24% compared to only 6% for Whites from 2007 to 2010.
• Barone estimates that one third of foreclosures after the housing market collapse affected Hispanic families. And according to unemployment rates, Hispanics have also been hit particularly hard in the recession (up 2% under Obama). Because of this, many Hispanics are moving back to their native countries.
• Barone notes that immigration patterns usually last about a decade or 25 years. The surge of Mexican immigrants went from 1982 to 2007 and he believes has ended.
• I also think that the implementation of ObamaCare will hit Hispanic families hard. Under this law everyone must buy health insurance or be taxed. 42% of Hispanics are currently without health insurance.

Ironically, Hispanics broke for Democrats and Obama in record numbers in 2012, but Obama and his policies may have ended the influx of Hispanics to the U.S. Yes, as more illegal aliens gain citizenship under Obama amnesty executive orders, Hispanic population in the U.S. will grow. But, it will not grow anywhere near those 2050 estimations if birth rates are going down and if those emerging Latin American economies continue to outpace the U.S. economy.