Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.
Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 24; Democrats 26 (including 2 Independents)
Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents)
House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197
Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:
Governor Races: Republicans 26; Democrats 24 (including 2 Independents)
Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)
House Races: Republicans 242; Democrats 193
| Governor Races | | | | |
| | | | | |
| State | Democrat | Republican | Poll | Rank | Probability | Gain | Incumbent |
| Arkansas | Ross | Hutchinson | 8 | 3 | 0.922662 | | | | -1 | |
| California | Brown | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Connecticut | Malloy | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Colorado | Hickenlooper | | -10 | 36 | 0.0376191 | | | | -1 | |
| Hawaii | Abercrombie | Aiona | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Illinois | Quinn | Rauner | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Maryland | O'Malley | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Massacusetts | Coakley | Baker | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Minnesota | Dayton | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| New Hampshire | Hassan | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| New York | Cuomo | Astorino | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Oregon | Kitzhaber | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Rhode Island | Chafee | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Vermont | Shumlin | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Arizona | | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Alabama | | Bentley | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Alaska | | Parnell | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Florida | Crist | Scott | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Georgia | Carter | Deal | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Idaho | | Otter | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Iowa | | Branstad | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Kansas | | Brownback | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Maine | Michaud | LePage | 1 | 4 | 0.5705996 | | | | 1 | |
| Michigan | Schauer | Snyder | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Nebraska | | Hassebrook | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Nevada | | Sandoval | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| New Mexico | | Martinez | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Oklahoma | Dorman | Fallin | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Ohio | | Kasich | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Pennsylvania | | Corbett | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| South Carolina | Sheheen | Haley | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| South Dakota | | Daugarrd | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Tennessee | | Haslam | 30 | 1 | 1 | | | | 1 | |
| Texas | Davis | Abbott | 9 | 2 | 0.9453236 | | | | 1 | |
| Wisconis | | Walker | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Wyoming | | Mead | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| | | 0 | | | | | | | |
| | | 5.62111 | | 0.5158155 | | 0 | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Senate Races | | | | |
| | | | | |
| State | Democrat | Republican | Poll | Rank | Probability | Gain | Incumbent | | |
| Alabama | Unopposed | Sessions | 50 | 1 | 0.9999989 | | | 1 | | |
| Alaska | Begich | | 2 | 3 | 0.5750967 | | | -1 | | |
| Arkansas | Pryor | Cotton | -1 | 30 | 0.4622835 | | | -1 | | |
| Delaware | Coons | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Georgia | Nunn | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Hawaii | Schatz | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Illinois | Durbin | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Massachusetts | Markey | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Maine | | Collins | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Michigan | Peters | Land | -5 | 33 | 0.3179592 | | | -1 | | |
| Minnesota | Franken | | -15 | 34 | 0.077769 | | | -1 | | |
| Mississippi | | Cochran | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Kentucky | Grimes | McConnell | 0 | 9 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Idaho | | Risch | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Kansas | | Roberts | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Nebraska | | Johanns | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Colorado | Udall | Gardner | -3 | 31 | 0.3881868 | | | -1 | | |
| Louisiana | Landrieu | | 2 | 3 | 0.5750967 | | | -1 | | |
| New Jersey | Booker | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| New Mexico | Udall | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Oklahoma | | Coburn | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Oklahoma | | Inhofe | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Montana | Walsh | Daines | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Rhode Island | Reed | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Tennessee | | Alexander | 25 | 2 | 0.9910351 | | | 1 | | |
| Texas | | Cornyn | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| South Carolina | | Scott | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| South Carolina | | Graham | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Virginia | Warner | | -15 | 34 | 0.077769 | | | -1 | | |
| Oregon | Merkley | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| West Virginia | Rockefeller | | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| New Hampshire | Tennant | Brown | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Wyoming | | Enzi | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| South Dakota | | Rounds | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| North Carolina | Hagan | | -1 | 30 | 0.4622835 | | | -1 | | |
| | | 0 | | | | | | | |
| | | 10.5616 | | 0.4989453 | | 0 | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| House Races | | | | | | | | | |
|
| State | Democrat | Republican | Poll | PVI | Cook | Sabato | Election Projection | AVE | Rank | Probability |
| Arkansas 2 | | | 0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4.6 | 27 | 0.7874265 |
| Arkansas 4 | | | 0 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 0.9585185 |
| Arizona 1 | Kirkpatrick | | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -0.2 | 42 | 0.4861695 |
| Arizona 2 | Barber | | 0 | 3 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -1.4 | 48 | 0.4041094 |
| Arizona 9 | Sinema | | 0 | 1 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -2.8 | 55 | 0.3136789 |
| California 3 | Garamendi | | 0 | -1 | -10 | -15 | -15 | -8.2 | 76 | 0.0775607 |
| California 7 | Bera | | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -2 | 51 | 0.3643898 |
| California 9 | McNerney | | 0 | -6 | -10 | -5 | -15 | -7.2 | 69 | 0.105961 |
| California 10 | | Denham | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 7.2 | 12 | 0.894039 |
| California 16 | Costa | | 0 | -7 | -10 | -15 | -15 | -9.4 | 78 | 0.0515801 |
| California 21 | | Valadao | 0 | -2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2.6 | 35 | 0.6739238 |
| California 25 | | | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 5.6 | 20 | 0.8342005 |
| California 24 | Capps | | 0 | -4 | -10 | -5 | 15 | -0.8 | 45 | 0.4448437 |
| California 26 | Brownley | | 0 | -4 | -5 | -10 | -10 | -5.8 | 66 | 0.1573105 |
| California 31 | | | 0 | -5 | -5 | 15 | -5 | 0 | 41 | 0.5 |
| California 36 | Ruiz | | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -1.8 | 50 | 0.377492 |
| California 52 | Peters | | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.6 | 40 | 0.5414252 |
| Colorado 6 | Romanoff | Coffman | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.8 | 40 | 0.5551563 |
| Connecticut 5 | Esty | | 0 | -3 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -7.6 | 70 | 0.0938108 |
| Florida 2 | Graham | Southerland | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4.2 | 29 | 0.7667464 |
| Florida 26 | Garcia | | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -0.8 | 45 | 0.4448437 |
| Florida 10 | Demings | Webster | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 6.2 | 17 | 0.8587954 |
| Florida 13 | | Jolly | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3.2 | 33 | 0.7104839 |
| Florida 18 | Murphy | | 0 | 3 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -1.4 | 48 | 0.4041094 |
| Hawaii 2 | | | 0 | -21 | -10 | -5 | -15 | -10.2 | 79 | 0.0384952 |
| Georgia 12 | Barrow | | 0 | 14 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -0.2 | 42 | 0.4861695 |
| Illinois 8 | Duckworth | | 0 | -8 | -10 | -5 | -15 | -7.6 | 70 | 0.0938108 |
| Illinois 10 | Schneider | Dold | 0 | -8 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -3.6 | 60 | 0.2662649 |
| Illinois 11 | Foster | | 0 | -8 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -8.6 | 77 | 0.0679778 |
| Illinois 12 | Enyart | Bost | 0 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -3 | 58 | 0.3014886 |
| Illinois 13 | Callis | Davis | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 0.6985114 |
| Illinois 17 | Bustos | Schilling | 0 | -7 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -4.4 | 63 | 0.2227768 |
| Indiana 2 | | Walorski | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5.2 | 24 | 0.8163516 |
| Iowa 1 | | | 0 | -5 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -8 | 74 | 0.0827213 |
| Iowa 3 | Appel | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 38 | 0.5688215 |
| Iowa 4 | | King | 0 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 7 | 13 | 0.8875541 |
| Kentucky 6 | | Barr | 0 | 9 | 10 | -5 | -15 | -0.2 | 42 | 0.4861695 |
| Maine 2 | | | 0 | -2 | -5 | -5 | -10 | -4.4 | 63 | 0.2227768 |
| Massachusetts 6 | Tierney | Tisei | 0 | -4 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -3.8 | 62 | 0.2550045 |
| Michigan 8 | | | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3.4 | 31 | 0.7222283 |
| Michigan 1 | Cannon | Benishek | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 0.8508877 |
| Michigan 3 | | Amash | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 6.8 | 14 | 0.8807905 |
| Michigan 7 | Byrnes | Walberg | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4.6 | 27 | 0.7874265 |
| Michigan 11 | | Bentivolio | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 7.8 | 10 | 0.9118639 |
| Minnesota 1 | Walz | | 0 | 1 | -10 | -15 | -15 | -7.8 | 72 | 0.0881361 |
| Minnesota 2 | | Kline | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 7.4 | 11 | 0.9002492 |
| Minnesota 8 | Nolan | | 0 | -1 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -3.2 | 59 | 0.2895161 |
| Minnesota 7 | Peterson | | 0 | 6 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -4.8 | 65 | 0.2026485 |
| Montana 1 | | | 0 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8.4 | 8 | 0.9273517 |
| New Jersey 3 | | | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.2 | 37 | 0.5824049 |
| New Jersey 2 | | LoBiondo | 0 | -1 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 6.8 | 14 | 0.8807905 |
| New York 1 | Bishop | | 0 | 2 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -2.6 | 53 | 0.3260762 |
| New York 11 | Recchia | Grimm | 0 | 2 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -2.6 | 53 | 0.3260762 |
| New York 18 | Maloney | | 0 | 0 | -5 | -10 | -15 | -6 | 67 | 0.1491123 |
| New York 19 | Eldridge | Gibson | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1.8 | 36 | 0.622508 |
| New York 21 | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -1 | 47 | 0.4311785 |
| New York 24 | Maffei | | 0 | -5 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -8 | 74 | 0.0827213 |
| New York 23 | Robertson | Reed | 0 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | 20 | 0.8342005 |
| New York 27 | Hochul | Collins | 0 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 5.6 | 20 | 0.8342005 |
| Nebraska 2 | | Terry | 0 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 8.8 | 6 | 0.9364574 |
| New Hampshire 1 | Shea-Porter | Guinta | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -15 | -2.8 | 55 | 0.3136789 |
| New Hampshire 2 | Kuster | | 0 | -3 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -3.6 | 60 | 0.2662649 |
| New Mexico 2 | | Pearce | 0 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 0.9172787 |
| Nevada 2 | Koepnick | Amodei | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 0.9585185 |
| Nevada 3 | | Heck | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 0.8508877 |
| Nevada 4 | Horsford | | 0 | -4 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -2.8 | 55 | 0.3136789 |
| North Carolina 2 | | Ellmers | 0 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 0.9585185 |
| North Carolina 7 | | | 0 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 10.4 | 1 | 0.9643135 |
| Ohio 6 | | Johnson | 0 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8.6 | 7 | 0.9320222 |
| Ohio 14 | Wager | Joyce | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 6.8 | 14 | 0.8807905 |
| Oregon 5 | Schrader | | 0 | 0 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -7 | 68 | 0.1124459 |
| Pennsylvania 6 | Trivedi | Costello | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3.4 | 31 | 0.7222283 |
| Pennsylvania 8 | | Fitzpatrick | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4.2 | 29 | 0.7667464 |
| Texas 23 | Gallego | | 0 | 3 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -2.4 | 52 | 0.3386687 |
| Utah 4 | Owens | Love | 0 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 10.2 | 2 | 0.9615048 |
| Virginia 10 | Foust | Comstock | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 5.4 | 23 | 0.8254209 |
| Washington 1 | Delbene | | 0 | -4 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -7.8 | 72 | 0.0881361 |
| West Virginia 2 | | | 0 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.2 | 24 | 0.8163516 |
| West Virginia 3 | Rahall | Jenkins | 0 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | 26 | 0.7973515 |
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