2014 Election Polls and Models (6/6/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models. Governor Races State Democrat Republican Poll Rank Probability Gain Incumbent Arkansas Ross Hutchinson 7.2 9 0.7291517 1 Rep Gain -1 California Brown Kashkari 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Connecticut Malloy Foley 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Colorado Hickenlooper -10 32 0.1983392 -1 Dem Hold -1 Hawaii Abercrombie Aiona 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Illinois Quinn Rauner 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Maryland O'Malley 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Massacusetts Coakley Baker -9 31 0.2227879 -1 Dem Hold -1 Minnesota Dayton 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 New Hampshire Hassan -22 35 0.0311152 -1 Dem Hold -1 New York Cuomo Astorino -29 36 0.0069867 -1 Dem Hold -1 Oregon Kitzhaber Richardson -13 33 0.1352658 -1 Dem Hold -1 Rhode Island Chafee 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Vermont Shumlin 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Arizona 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Alabama Griffith Bentley 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Alaska Mallott Parnell 10 6 0.8016608 1 Rep Hold 1 Florida Crist Scott -1.5 30 0.4494167 -1 Dem Gain 1 Georgia Carter Deal 2 11 0.5673037 1 Rep Hold 1 Idaho Balukoff Otter 14 3 0.8823065 1 Rep Hold 1 Iowa Hatch Branstad 9 7 0.7772121 1 Rep Hold 1 Kansas Brownback 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Maine Michaud LePage -1 29 0.4662274 -1 Dem Gain 1 Michigan Schauer Snyder 10.2 5 0.8063488 1 Rep Hold 1 Nebraska Hassebrook Ricketts 7 10 0.7235091 1 Rep Hold 1 Nevada Sandoval 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 New Mexico King Martinez 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Oklahoma Dorman Fallin 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Ohio Fitzgerald Kasich 11 4 0.8244158 1 Rep Hold 1 Pennsylvania Wolf Corbett -21.5 34 0.0342068 -1 Dem Gain 1 South Carolina Sheheen Haley 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 South Dakota Wismer Daugarrd 33 1 0.9974208 1 Rep Hold 1 Tennessee Haslam 30 2 0.9945001 1 Rep Hold 1 Texas Davis Abbott 9 7 0.7772121 1 Rep Hold 1 Wisconis Walker 2 11 0.5673037 1 Rep Hold 1 Wyoming Mead 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 0 11.7985 0.5295349 4 -4 8 Senate Races State Democrat Republican Poll Rank Probability Gain Incumbent Alabama Unopposed Sessions 50 1 0.9999652 1 Rep Hold 1 Alaska Begich Sullivan -6 30 0.3165546 -1 Dem Hold -1 Arkansas Pryor Cotton -1.5 26 0.4525035 -1 Dem Hold -1 Delaware Coons 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Georgia Nunn Purdue -0.5 25 0.4841344 -1 Dem Gain 1 Hawaii Schatz Hanabusa -4 29 0.3751527 -1 Dem Hold -1 Illinois Durbin Oberweis 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Massachusetts Markey 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Maine Collins 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Michigan Peters Land -3 27 0.4056778 -1 Dem Hold -1 Minnesota Franken -15 34 0.1163588 -1 Dem Hold -1 Mississippi Childers Cochran 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Gain 1 Kentucky Grimes McConnell 3 16 0.5943222 1 Rep Hold 1 Idaho Mitchell Risch 25 1 0.9766483 1 Rep Hold 1 Kansas Roberts 1 7 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Nebraska Domina Sasse 17 4 0.9118933 1 Rep Hold 1 Colorado Udall Gardner -3 26 0.4056778 -1 Dem Hold -1 Louisiana Landrieu Cassidy 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Gain -1 New Jersey Booker 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 New Mexico Udall Weh 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Oklahoma Coburn 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Oklahoma Inhofe 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Montana Walsh Daines 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Rhode Island Reed 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Tennessee Alexander 25 2 0.9766483 1 Rep Hold 1 Texas Alameel Cornyn 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 South Carolina Scott 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 South Carolina Graham 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Virginia Warner -15 34 0.1163588 -1 Dem Hold -1 Oregon Merkley Wehby -12 33 0.1698621 -1 Dem Hold -1 West Virginia Tennant Capito 12 6 0.8301379 1 Rep Gain -1 New Hampshire Shaheen Brown -7 32 0.288793 -1 Dem Hold -1 Wyoming Enzi -15.5 36 0.1087567 -1 Dem Gain 1 South Dakota Weiland Rounds 14 5 0.8673236 1 Rep Gain -1 North Carolina Hagan Tillis 0.5 16 0.5158656 1 Rep Gain -1 Iowa Braley Ernst -6 30 0.3165546 -1 Dem Hold -1 0 12.5693 0.5085786 -4 2 -6 House Races State Democrat Republican Poll PVI Cook Sabato Election Projection AVE Rank Probability Arkansas 2 Hays Hill 0 8 5 5 5 4.6 25 0.7796312 Arkansas 4 0 15 10 10 15 10 2 0.9531284 Arizona 1 Kirkpatrick 0 4 0 0 -5 -0.2 38 0.4866302 Arizona 2 Barber 0 3 0 0 -5 -0.4 41 0.4732753 Arizona 9 Sinema 0 1 -5 -5 -10 -3.8 59 0.2621047 California 3 Garamendi Logue 0 -1 -10 -15 -15 -8.2 74 0.0846745 California 7 Bera Ose 0 0 0 -5 -5 -2 51 0.3687391 California 9 McNerney Amador 0 -6 -10 -15 -15 -9.2 77 0.0615494 California 10 Eggman Denham 0 1 10 10 15 7.2 17 0.8862264 California 16 Costa 0 -7 -10 -15 -15 -9.4 78 0.0575803 California 21 Renteria Valadao 0 -2 5 5 5 2.6 35 0.6684921 California 25 0 3 10 5 10 5.6 21 0.8260179 California 24 Capps 0 -4 -10 -5 15 -0.8 42 0.4466705 California 26 Brownley Gorell 0 -4 -5 -10 -10 -5.8 66 0.1655091 California 31 Aguilar Chabot 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 62 0.2513047 California 36 Ruiz Ruiz 0 1 0 -5 -5 -1.8 50 0.3814498 California 52 Peters DiMaio 0 -2 0 0 5 0.6 37 0.5400495 Colorado 6 Romanoff Coffman 0 -1 0 0 -5 -1.2 49 0.4203036 Connecticut 5 Esty 0 -3 -10 -10 -15 -7.6 69 0.1013777 Florida 2 Graham Southerland 0 6 5 5 5 4.2 26 0.7592553 Florida 26 Garcia 0 1 0 0 -5 -0.8 42 0.4466705 Florida 10 Demings Webster 0 6 5 15 15 8.2 11 0.9153255 Florida 13 Jolly 0 1 15 15 15 9.2 5 0.9384506 Florida 18 Murphy 0 3 0 -5 -5 -1.4 49 0.4072455 Hawaii 2 0 -21 -10 -5 -15 -10.2 79 0.0436798 Georgia 12 Barrow Allen 0 14 -5 -5 -5 -0.2 38 0.4866302 Illinois 8 Duckworth 0 -8 -10 -5 -15 -7.6 69 0.1013777 Illinois 10 Schneider Dold 0 -8 0 -5 -5 -3.6 57 0.2731377 Illinois 11 Foster 0 -8 -10 -10 -15 -8.6 75 0.0747446 Illinois 12 Enyart Bost 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 54 0.3075552 Illinois 13 Callis Davis 0 0 5 5 5 3 34 0.6924448 Illinois 17 Bustos Schilling 0 -7 -5 -5 -5 -4.4 63 0.2304309 Indiana 2 Bock Walorski 0 6 5 5 5 4.2 26 0.7592553 Iowa 1 Murphy Blum 0 -5 -10 -10 -15 -8 72 0.089996 Iowa 3 Appel 0 0 0 0 -5 -1 46 0.43345 Iowa 4 Mowrer King 0 5 10 15 15 9 7 0.9342709 Kentucky 6 Barr 0 9 10 -5 -15 -0.2 38 0.4866302 Maine 2 0 -2 -5 -5 -10 -4.4 63 0.2304309 Massachusetts 6 Tierney Tisei 0 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3.8 59 0.2621047 Michigan 8 0 2 5 5 5 3.4 31 0.7156039 Michigan 1 Cannon Benishek 0 5 5 5 5 4 28 0.7486953 Michigan 3 Amash 0 4 10 15 15 8.8 8 0.9298745 Michigan 7 Byrnes Walberg 0 3 5 5 5 3.6 30 0.7268623 Michigan 11 Bentivolio 0 4 10 10 15 7.8 13 0.9044378 Minnesota 1 Walz 0 1 -10 -15 -15 -7.8 71 0.0955622 Minnesota 2 Kline 0 2 10 10 15 7.4 16 0.8925532 Minnesota 8 Nolan 0 -1 -5 -5 -5 -3.2 55 0.2958716 Minnesota 7 Peterson 0 6 -10 -10 -10 -4.8 65 0.2105635 Montana 1 Lewis Zinke 0 7 10 10 15 8.4 10 0.9204076 New Jersey 3 Belgard McArthur 0 1 0 0 -5 -0.8 42 0.4466705 New Jersey 2 Hughes LoBiondo 0 -1 10 10 15 6.8 18 0.8727865 New York 1 Bishop 0 2 -5 -5 -5 -2.6 52 0.3315079 New York 11 Recchia Grimm 0 2 -5 -5 -5 -2.6 52 0.3315079 New York 18 Maloney 0 0 -5 -10 -15 -6 67 0.1573077 New York 19 Eldridge Gibson 0 -1 5 0 5 1.8 36 0.6185502 New York 21 0 0 0 0 -5 -1 46 0.43345 New York 24 Maffei 0 -5 -10 -10 -15 -8 72 0.089996 New York 23 Robertson Reed 0 3 15 5 5 5.6 21 0.8260179 New York 27 Hochul Collins 0 8 0 15 15 7.6 15 0.8986223 Nebraska 2 Sullivan Terry 0 4 15 5 15 7.8 13 0.9044378 New Hampshire 1 Shea-Porter Guinta 0 1 0 0 -5 -0.8 42 0.4466705 New Hampshire 2 Kuster 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3.6 57 0.2731377 New Mexico 2 Lara Pearce 0 5 10 10 15 8 12 0.910004 Nevada 2 Koepnick Amodei 0 5 15 15 15 10 2 0.9531284 Nevada 3 Heck 0 0 5 10 5 4 28 0.7486953 Nevada 4 Horsford 0 -4 0 -10 -5 -3.8 59 0.2621047 North Carolina 2 Ellmers 0 10 10 15 15 10 2 0.9531284 North Carolina 7 Barfield Rouzer 0 12 10 15 15 10.4 1 0.9593343 Ohio 6 Johnson 0 8 10 10 15 8.6 9 0.9252554 Ohio 14 Wager Joyce 0 4 10 10 10 6.8 18 0.8727865 Oregon 5 Schrader 0 0 -10 -10 -15 -7 68 0.1203614 Pennsylvania 6 Trivedi Costello 13 2 5 5 10 5.7 20 0.8302883 Pennsylvania 8 Strouse Fitzpatrick 0 1 5 5 5 3.2 33 0.7041284 Texas 23 Gallego Hurd 0 3 -5 -5 -10 -3.4 56 0.2843961 Utah 4 Owens Love 0 16 10 10 10 9.2 5 0.9384506 Virginia 10 Foust Comstock 0 2 5 5 5 3.4 31 0.7156039 Washington 1 Delbene 0 -4 -10 -15 -15 -8.8 76 0.0701255 West Virginia 2 Mooney Casey 0 11 5 5 5 5.2 23 0.8082612 West Virginia 3 Rahall Jenkins 0 14 0 5 5 4.8 24 0.7894365 Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 26; Democrats 24 (including 2 Independents) Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents) House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 232; Democrats 205 Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls: Governor Races: Republicans 25; Democrats 25 (including 2 Independents) Senate Races: Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents) House Races: Republicans 231; Democrats 206