Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.
| Governor Races | | | | |
| | | | | |
| State | Democrat | Republican | Poll | Rank | Probability | Gain | Incumbent | | |
| Arkansas | Ross | Hutchinson | 6 | 14 | 0.6648621 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| California | Brown | Kashkari | -18 | 34 | 0.1007467 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Connecticut | Malloy | Foley | 0.3 | 19 | 0.5084922 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| Colorado | Hickenlooper | Beauprez | -0.2 | 22 | 0.4943383 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Hawaii | Ige | Aiona | -4 | 26 | 0.3882641 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Illinois | Quinn | Rauner | 0.2 | 20 | 0.5056617 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| Maryland | Brown | Hogan | -12 | 32 | 0.197235 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Massacusetts | Coakley | Baker | 4.5 | 17 | 0.6252608 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| Minnesota | Dayton | Johnson | -10 | 29 | 0.2389712 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| New Hampshire | Hassan | Havenstein | -8 | 28 | 0.2851219 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| New York | Cuomo | Astorino | -24 | 36 | 0.0442767 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Oregon | Kitzhaber | Richardson | -10 | 29 | 0.2389712 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Rhode Island | Raimondo | Fung | -10 | 29 | 0.2389712 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Vermont | Shumlin | Milne | -18 | 34 | 0.1007467 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Arizona | DuVal | Ducey | 5 | 16 | 0.6386332 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Alabama | Griffith | Bentley | 30 | 1 | 0.9833666 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Alaska | Walker | Parnell | -6 | 27 | 0.3351379 | -1 | Dem Gain | 1 | | |
| Florida | Crist | Scott | -0.8 | 25 | 0.4773645 | -1 | Dem Gain | 1 | | |
| Georgia | Carter | Deal | 1.3 | 18 | 0.5367503 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Idaho | Balukoff | Otter | 17 | 8 | 0.8861581 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Iowa | Hatch | Branstad | 16 | 9 | 0.871893 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Kansas | Davis | Brownback | -0.6 | 24 | 0.4830194 | -1 | Dem Gain | 1 | | |
| Maine | Michaud | LePage | -0.2 | 22 | 0.4943383 | -1 | Dem Gain | 1 | | |
| Michigan | Schauer | Snyder | 5.2 | 15 | 0.6439362 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Nebraska | Hassebrook | Ricketts | 13 | 12 | 0.8218662 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Nevada | Goodman | Sandoval | 25 | 4 | 0.9619717 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| New Mexico | King | Martinez | 9 | 13 | 0.738476 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Oklahoma | Dorman | Fallin | 18 | 6 | 0.8992533 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Ohio | Fitzgerald | Kasich | 18 | 6 | 0.8992533 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Pennsylvania | Wolf | Corbett | -12 | 32 | 0.197235 | -1 | Dem Gain | 1 | | |
| South Carolina | Sheheen | Haley | 16 | 9 | 0.871893 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| South Dakota | Wismer | Daugarrd | 24 | 5 | 0.9557233 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Tennessee | McKamey | Haslam | 28 | 2 | 0.9765346 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Texas | Davis | Abbott | 15 | 11 | 0.8564316 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Wisconsin | Burke | Walker | 0 | 21 | 0.5 | -1 | Dem Gain | 1 | | |
| Wyoming | Gosar | Mead | 26 | 3 | 0.9674813 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| | | 0 | | | | | | | |
| | | 14.0921 | | 0.5703936 | 4 | -2 | 8 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Senate Races | | | | |
| | | | | |
| State | Democrat | Republican | Poll | Rank | Probability | Gain | Incumbent | | |
| Alabama | Unopposed | Sessions | 50 | 1 | 0.990288 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Alaska | Begich | Sullivan | 4.3 | 19 | 0.5796535 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| Arkansas | Pryor | Cotton | 5.5 | 16 | 0.60145 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| Delaware | Coons | Wade | -18 | 33 | 0.2000549 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Georgia | Nunn | Perdue | -1 | 23 | 0.4813579 | -1 | Dem Gain | 1 | | |
| Hawaii | Schatz | Cavasso | -40 | 36 | 0.0307535 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Illinois | Durbin | Oberweis | -12 | 28 | 0.2874158 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Massachusetts | Markey | Herr | -25 | 34 | 0.1212732 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Maine | Bellows | Collins | 30 | 5 | 0.9195984 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Michigan | Peters | Land | -9 | 26 | 0.3369825 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Minnesota | Franken | McFadden | -10 | 27 | 0.320086 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Mississippi | Childers | Cochran | 13 | 14 | 0.7283054 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Kentucky | Grimes | McConnell | 4.4 | 33 | 0.5814802 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Idaho | Mitchell | Risch | 28 | 5 | 0.9047131 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Kansas | Orman | Roberts | -0.8 | 21 | 0.4850844 | -1 | Dem Gain | 1 | | |
| Nebraska | Domina | Sasse | 23 | 7 | 0.8588471 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Colorado | Udall | Gardner | 3.8 | 19 | 0.5704949 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| Louisiana | Landrieu | Cassidy | 4.8 | 17 | 0.5887692 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| New Jersey | Booker | Bell | -16 | 30 | 0.2272502 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| New Mexico | Udall | Weh | -16 | 30 | 0.2272502 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Oklahoma | Johnson | Langford | 31 | 3 | 0.9263481 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Oklahoma | Silverstein | Inhofe | 31 | 3 | 0.9263481 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Montana | Walsh | Daines | 17 | 10 | 0.7865999 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| Rhode Island | Reed | Zaccaria | -30 | 35 | 0.0804016 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Tennessee | Adams | Alexander | 16 | 11 | 0.7727498 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Texas | Alameel | Cornyn | 20 | 8 | 0.8250844 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| South Carolina | Dickerson | Scott | 19 | 9 | 0.8127756 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| South Carolina | Hutto | Graham | 16 | 11 | 0.7727498 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| Virginia | Warner | Gillespie | -13 | 29 | 0.2716946 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Oregon | Merkley | Wehby | -17 | 32 | 0.2134001 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| West Virginia | Tennant | Capito | 16 | 11 | 0.7727498 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| New Hampshire | Shaheen | Brown | -1.8 | 25 | 0.4664716 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Wyoming | Hardy | Enzi | 45 | 2 | 0.9822917 | 1 | Rep Hold | 1 | | |
| South Dakota | Weiland | Rounds | 9 | 15 | 0.6630175 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| North Carolina | Hagan | Tillis | -1.6 | 24 | 0.4701896 | -1 | Dem Hold | -1 | | |
| Iowa | Braley | Ernst | 2.5 | 21 | 0.5465163 | 1 | Rep Gain | -1 | | |
| | | 0 | | | | | | | |
| | | 21.3923 | | 0.5651749 | 6 | 6 | -6 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| House Races | | | | | | | | | |
|
| State | Democrat | Republican | Poll | PVI | Cook | Sabato | Election Projection | AVE | Rank | Probability |
| Arkansas 2 | Hays | Hill | -4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0.2 | 47 | 0.5115867 |
| Arkansas 4 | Witt | Westerman | 9 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 9.9 | 10 | 0.9247627 |
| Arizona 1 | Kirkpatrick | Tobin | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0.4 | 45 | 0.5231636 |
| Arizona 2 | Barber | McSally | -8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -1.2 | 50 | 0.4308205 |
| Arizona 9 | Sinema | Rogers | 0 | 1 | -5 | -10 | -10 | -4.8 | 63 | 0.2428567 |
| California 3 | Garamendi | Logue | -6 | -1 | -10 | -15 | -15 | -8.8 | 72 | 0.1006079 |
| California 7 | Bera | Ose | -4 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 5 | -0.4 | 48 | 0.4768364 |
| California 9 | McNerney | Amador | 0 | -6 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -10.2 | 78 | 0.0692462 |
| California 10 | Eggman | Denham | 10 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 9.2 | 14 | 0.9092565 |
| California 16 | Costa | Tacherra | 0 | -7 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -10.4 | 79 | 0.065461 |
| California 21 | Renteria | Valadao | 15 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8.7 | 18 | 0.8968081 |
| California 25 | | Strckland | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 7.6 | 24 | 0.8651621 |
| California 24 | Capps | Mitchum | 0 | -4 | -10 | -10 | 15 | -1.8 | 52 | 0.396881 |
| California 26 | Brownley | Gorell | 0 | -4 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -2.8 | 55 | 0.3421264 |
| California 31 | Aguilar | Chabot | -4 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -4.4 | 61 | 0.2613959 |
| California 36 | Ruiz | Nestande | 0 | 1 | 0 | -10 | -5 | -2.8 | 55 | 0.3421264 |
| California 52 | Peters | DiMaio | -2.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.35 | 46 | 0.5202708 |
| Colorado 6 | Romanoff | Coffman | 1 | -1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2.9 | 36 | 0.663192 |
| Connecticut 5 | Esty | Greenberg | -16 | -3 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -9.2 | 74 | 0.0907435 |
| Florida 2 | Graham | Southerland | 0.5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4.25 | 34 | 0.731469 |
| Florida 26 | Garcia | Cubelo | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.1 | 40 | 0.5634657 |
| Florida 10 | Demings | Webster | 0 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 8.2 | 19 | 0.8831639 |
| Florida 13 | Sink | Jolly | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9.2 | 14 | 0.9092565 |
| Florida 18 | Murphy | Domino | -22 | 3 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -7.6 | 68 | 0.1348379 |
| Hawaii 1 | Takai | Djou | 2 | -15 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -9.8 | 77 | 0.0773197 |
| Georgia 12 | Barrow | Allen | 0 | 14 | 0 | -5 | -5 | 0.8 | 43 | 0.5462492 |
| Illinois 8 | Duckworth | Kaifesh | 0 | -8 | -10 | -5 | -15 | -7.6 | 68 | 0.1348379 |
| Illinois 10 | Schneider | Dold | -4 | -5 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -3.4 | 58 | 0.3107203 |
| Illinois 11 | Foster | Senger | -3 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -9.3 | 75 | 0.0883935 |
| Illinois 12 | Enyart | Bost | 5 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 5 | 0.9 | 41 | 0.5519993 |
| Illinois 13 | Callis | Davis | 17 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11.1 | 4 | 0.9465346 |
| Illinois 17 | Bustos | Schilling | -9 | -11 | -5 | -10 | -10 | -8.1 | 71 | 0.1197118 |
| Indiana 2 | Bock | Walorski | 0 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 8.2 | 19 | 0.8831639 |
| Iowa 1 | Murphy | Blum | -1.5 | -5 | -5 | -10 | -5 | -5.15 | 66 | 0.2272372 |
| Iowa 3 | Appel | Young | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -1.2 | 50 | 0.4308205 |
| Iowa 4 | Mowrer | King | 10 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 0.9268022 |
| Kentucky 6 | Jensen | Barr | 0 | 9 | 15 | -5 | -15 | 0.8 | 43 | 0.5462492 |
| Maine 2 | Cain | Poliquin | -2 | -2 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -2.6 | 54 | 0.3528568 |
| Massachusetts 6 | Moulton | Tisei | -3 | -4 | -5 | -10 | -5 | -5.1 | 65 | 0.2294333 |
| Michigan 8 | Schertzeing | Bishop | 0 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 7.4 | 26 | 0.8587594 |
| Michigan 1 | Cannon | Benishek | 0 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0.8082399 |
| Michigan 3 | Goodrich | Amash | 0 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 8.8 | 17 | 0.8993921 |
| Michigan 7 | Byrnes | Walberg | 3 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 7.9 | 23 | 0.8743879 |
| Michigan 11 | McKenzie | Trott | 12 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 0.9268022 |
| Minnesota 1 | Walz | Hagedorn | 0 | 1 | -10 | -15 | -15 | -7.8 | 70 | 0.1286371 |
| Minnesota 2 | Obermueller | Kline | 22 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 10.6 | 5 | 0.9381618 |
| Minnesota 8 | Nolan | Mills | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.4 | 37 | 0.6362945 |
| Minnesota 7 | Peterson | Westrom | -10 | 6 | -10 | -5 | -5 | -3.8 | 59 | 0.2905068 |
| Montana 1 | Lewis | Zinke | 9 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 9.3 | 13 | 0.9116065 |
| New Jersey 3 | Belgard | McArthur | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0.9 | 41 | 0.5519993 |
| New Jersey 2 | Hughes | LoBiondo | 10 | -1 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9.8 | 11 | 0.9226803 |
| New York 1 | Bishop | Zeldin | -5 | 2 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -3.1 | 57 | 0.3262694 |
| New York 11 | Recchia | Grimm | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.4 | 39 | 0.5805628 |
| New York 18 | Maloney | Hayworth | -4 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -10 | -4.4 | 61 | 0.2613959 |
| New York 19 | Eldridge | Gibson | 24 | -1 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 8.2 | 19 | 0.8831639 |
| New York 21 | Woolf | Stefanik | 11 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5.1 | 33 | 0.7705667 |
| New York 24 | Maffei | Katko | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -15 | -6.5 | 67 | 0.1725726 |
| New York 23 | Robertson | Reed | 0 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | 32 | 0.7919865 |
| New York 27 | Hochul | Collins | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 7.6 | 24 | 0.8651621 |
| Nebraska 2 | Ashford | Terry | -1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2.7 | 36 | 0.6525237 |
| New Hampshire 1 | Shea-Porter | Guinta | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -0.8 | 49 | 0.4537508 |
| New Hampshire 2 | Kuster | Garcia | -4 | -4 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -4.2 | 60 | 0.2709309 |
| New Mexico 2 | Lara | Pearce | 0 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 0.9044179 |
| Nevada 2 | Spees | Amodei | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 0.9268022 |
| Nevada 3 | Bilbay | Heck | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 22 | 0.877363 |
| Nevada 4 | Horsford | Hardy | 0 | -4 | -5 | -10 | -5 | -4.8 | 63 | 0.2428567 |
| North Carolina 2 | Aiken | Ellmers | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 12.8 | 1 | 0.9684898 |
| North Carolina 7 | Barfield | Rouzer | 0 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 11.4 | 3 | 0.9511102 |
| Ohio 6 | Garrison | Johnson | 0 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10.6 | 5 | 0.9381618 |
| Ohio 14 | Wager | Joyce | 0 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9.8 | 11 | 0.9226803 |
| Oregon 5 | Schrader | Smith | 0 | 0 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9 | 73 | 0.0955821 |
| Pennsylvania 6 | Trivedi | Costello | 9 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7.3 | 27 | 0.8554819 |
| Pennsylvania 8 | Strouse | Fitzpatrick | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 7.2 | 28 | 0.8521535 |
| Texas 23 | Gallego | Hurd | 0 | 3 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -2.4 | 53 | 0.3637055 |
| Utah 4 | Owens | Love | 10 | 16 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 12.2 | 2 | 0.9617948 |
| Virginia 10 | Foust | Comstock | 15 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5.9 | 31 | 0.8042513 |
| Washington 1 | Delbene | Larsen | -9 | -4 | -10 | -15 | -15 | -9.7 | 76 | 0.0794457 |
| West Virginia 2 | Mooney | Casey | 12 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 6.4 | 29 | 0.8236912 |
| West Virginia 3 | Rahall | Jenkins | -6 | 14 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2.2 | 38 | 0.6253353 |
Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)
Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)
House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 252; Democrats 186
Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:
Governor Races: Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)
Senate Races: Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 3 Independents)
House Races: Republicans 243; Democrats 195
No comments:
Post a Comment