One way to prognosticate the outcome of the 2014 elections is to evaluate trends. Many articles point to the fact that polls have been trending in the Republicans favor over the past few weeks. What does this mean? Many polling outlets conduct weekly or monthly polls of hotly contested Senate and Gubernatorial races. And the results have been on average trending towards Republicans for each of these polls. For instance, an NBC poll may have had Hagan ahead by 6 points in the North Carolina Senate Race last month. However, that margin has slowly deteriorated in Tillis’s favor over the weeks to just a 1 point lead for Hagan now. This and other polls show this race is trending towards Tillis.
However, the best way to look at trends is if we had any actual data. This is hard to come by, but with the onset of early voting small samples of data are out there (electproject.org). However, the early voting data is fairly generic for most states, but a few states provide some ideology breakdown of the voters. Below are tables for 6 states early voting trends for 2010, 2012, and 2014 (States that have a key Senate and or Governor races). If the 2014 trend looks more like 2010 that is good for Republicans but if it looks more like 2012 then that is good for Democrats. This data is not necessarily an apples to apples comparison since early voting laws are changing in these states. For instance, in Colorado, the 2014 election will be conducted entirely by early voting. Other examples include some states have implemented mail in early voting options along with in person early voting. These early voting statistics are updated daily at the electproject.org website.
| From electproject.org | ||||||
| Year | State / U.S. | Total Early Vote | Total Vote | Rep (%) | Dem (%) | Delta (%) |
| 2010 | U.S. | 19,091,000 | ||||
| 2010 | CO | 1,212,000 | 1,828,000 | 40.7 | 34.6 | 6.1 |
| 2010 | FL | 2,173,000 | 5,474,000 | 49.2 | 36.5 | 12.7 |
| 2010 | IA | 349,000 | 1,133,000 | 38 | 43.7 | -5.7 |
| 2010 | KS | 136,000 | 858,000 | |||
| 2010 | LA | 125,000 | 1,299,000 | 42.3 | 46.7 | -4.4 |
| 2010 | NC | 957,000 | 2,701,000 | 36.5 | 46.4 | -9.9 |
| 2010 | ME | 134,000 | 581,000 | 34.5 | 37.7 | -3.2 |
| 2010 | AVERAGE | 726,571 | 1,982,000 | 40 | 40.93333 | -0.73333 |
| 2012 | U.S. | 32,311,000 | ||||
| 2012 | CO | 1,873,000 | 2,422,000 | 36.1 | 34.3 | 1.8 |
| 2012 | FL | 4,469,000 | 8,454,000 | 39.1 | 42.9 | -3.8 |
| 2012 | IA | 673,000 | 1,544,000 | 32 | 41.9 | -9.9 |
| 2012 | KS | 1,183,000 | ||||
| 2012 | LA | 356,000 | 1,980,000 | 34.5 | 51 | -16.5 |
| 2012 | NC | 2,757,000 | 4,355,000 | 31.5 | 47.6 | -16.1 |
| 2012 | ME | 170,000 | 725,000 | 29.1 | 39.9 | -10.8 |
| 2012 | AVERAGE | 1,716,333 | 2,951,857 | 34 | 42.93333 | -9.21667 |
| 2014 | U.S. | 17,412,000 | ||||
| 2014 | CO | 1,380,000 | 1,380,000 | 40.5 | 32.4 | 8.1 |
| 2014 | FL | 3,050,000 | 3,050,000 | 42.8 | 39.4 | 3.4 |
| 2014 | IA | 432,000 | 432,000 | 38.8 | 40.6 | -1.8 |
| 2014 | LA | 242,000 | 242,000 | 33.8 | 52.6 | -18.8 |
| 2014 | NC | 1,156,000 | 1,156,000 | 31.9 | 47.6 | -15.7 |
| 2014 | ME | 110,000 | 110,000 | 34.3 | 37.7 | -3.4 |
| 2014 | AVERAGE | 1,061,667 | 1,061,667 | 37 | 41.71667 | -4.7 |
| 2014 | KS | 153,000 | 153,000 | 52.6 | 33.8 | 18.8 |
Based on the Averages it looks like 2014 is between the 2010 and 2012 early vote. Colorado, Iowa, and Maine look favorable for the Republicans. Kansas also looks good for the Republicans. I added this information to the file, but 2014 is the first year they are keeping ideological data. Whereas, North Carolina and Louisiana look good for the Democrats. Florida is a wash, so I doubt either Party can be too happy thus far. Florida, Colorado, and Iowa early vote are trending more Democratic in recent days and Republicans won North Carolina and Louisiana in 2012 when they conceded even larger advantages in the early vote.
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