2012 Election Polls and Models (10/19/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 294; Republican 244 (R +71), Obama at 53.5% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 235; Democrats 203;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	18	7	0.811192	5.678344253
Alaska		3	25	5	0.8897902	0.889790221
Arizona		11	5.3	22	0.6024862	5.422375755
Arkansas		6	21	6	0.8483417	3.39336683
California	55		-17.4	43	0.1968608	10.43362313
Colorado	0	9	0.6	26	0.5117312	3.58211818
Connecticut	7		-13	38	0.2619924	1.309962203
Delaware	3		-20	44	0.1634615	0.163461478
DC	3		-75	51	0.0001183	0.000118349
Florida	0	29	2	25	0.539047	14.55426843
Georgia		16	12.7	15	0.7331967	10.26475368
Hawaii	4		-29.5	49	0.0740903	0.148180671
Idaho		4	34	2	0.9521992	1.904398473
Illinois	20		-15	40	0.2310943	4.159696522
Indiana		11	12	18	0.7218004	6.496203784
Iowa	6		-2.7	32	0.4473559	1.789423415
Kansas		6	17	9	0.7976569	3.19062747
Kentucky		8	14	12	0.7537164	4.522298435
Louisiana		8	16	11	0.7835575	4.701345186
Massachusetts	11		-20.4	45	0.1586704	1.428034031
Maine	4		-15	40	0.2310943	0.462188502
Maryland	10		-21	46	0.1516583	1.21326634
Michigan	16		-4.4	33	0.4146214	5.804700007
Minnesota	10		-9.3	36	0.3242476	2.593980662
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.811192	3.244768145
Missouri		10	5.2	23	0.6005944	4.804755264
Montana		3	12.4	17	0.7283416	0.728341584
Nebraska		5	12.5	16	0.7299648	2.189894487
Nevada	6		-1.6	29	0.4687444	1.874977672
New Hampshire	4		-0.7	27	0.4863143	0.972628698
New Jersey	14		-14.3	39	0.2416714	2.900056327
New Mexico	5		-9.3	36	0.3242476	0.972742748
New York	29		-26.3	48	0.0986756	2.664241867
North Carolina	0	15	4.7	24	0.5911009	7.68431108
North Dakota		3	14	12	0.7537164	0.753716406
Ohio	18		-1.7	30	0.4667953	7.468725254
Oklahoma		7	29	4	0.9224113	4.61205638
Oregon	7		-8.5	35	0.3384707	1.692353446
Pennsylvania	20		-4.4	33	0.4146214	7.463185723
Rhode Island	4		-25	47	0.1102098	0.220419558
South Carolina		9	10	19	0.6879915	4.815940731
South Dakota		3	6	21	0.6156589	0.615658941
Tennessee		11	7	20	0.6342443	5.708198639
Texas		38	17	9	0.7976569	28.71564723
Utah		6	42	1	0.9802382	3.920952926
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0348688	0.034868771
Virginia	13	0	-0.8	28	0.4843602	5.327962148
Washington	12		-16.3	42	0.2121541	2.12154067
West Virginia		5	14	12	0.7537164	2.261149217
Wisconsin	10		-2.3	31	0.4551191	3.640953035
Wyoming		3	30	3	0.9292863	0.929286252
			0
Total	294	244	20.4013		0.5151441	0.46539278	0.515631539	0.489
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	3	0.762357				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	9	0.2802473				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	2.7	4	0.5589361	Gain	1		-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	14	2	0.7790001	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9727003				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0309413				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-3.3	8	0.4280967				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1244078				-1
			0
			18.2097		0.4942442		2
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	1.3	6	0.5368593			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-19	28	0.088143			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-3.4	19	0.4043952			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	0	8	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6.7	22	0.3167322			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-17.5	27	0.1064702			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	5	3	0.6390284			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-2.5	17	0.4293884	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	8	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-13	24	0.1774195			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-25.3	29	0.0358777			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	8	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-2.3	17	0.4349848			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	-28	30	0.0231399			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	1.7	5	0.5481519	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	2	0.8868479	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3	4	0.5845384			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-40	33	0.0022073			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-14.3	25	0.1543941			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-9	23	0.2609064			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	8	0.5			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-5	20	0.3609716			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-5.4	21	0.3503662			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	-27.5	30	0.0251592			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	8	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	26	1	0.9678784			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	8	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	0	8	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-2.2	15	0.437788			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-17	26	0.1131521			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	32	0.0027539			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-3	18	0.4154616			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	7	0.5283698			1
			0
			14.0504		0.3736783		1
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	25	7	15	15	15	12.9	2	0.9589206
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9110929
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	29	8	15	15	15	13.5	1	0.9655554
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	1	3	0	-5	-5	-1.3	80	0.4304703
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9110929
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-6.1	3	-10	-10	-10	-6.01	105	0.2090112
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.5	93	0.3185953
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	109	0.1497311
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	73	0.5853512
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	101	0.2375569
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	4.5	5	0	5	10	4.45	56	0.7256284
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1026376
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	15	10	7.6	44	0.8471088
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	3	0.9552338
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	1	-3	-5	-5	5	-1.5	82	0.4199086
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4146488
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	34	0.8767441
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	5	5	5	3.6	62	0.6861993
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	95	0.2949412
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1727737
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	-5	-5	-2.2	87	0.3834419
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.6956941
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9153515
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	0	5	1.5	75	0.5800914
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3.1	91	0.3380723
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	-1	4	10	10	10	6.7	48	0.8166934
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	-9	-3	0	-10	-15	-6.5	106	0.1905462
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	2	4	-5	-5	-5	-2	86	0.3937713
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	11	7	5	10	15	8.5	39	0.8739759
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	9	1	15	15	15	10.1	13	0.9132417
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	17	5	10	10	10	8.7	33	0.8794695
Florida 18	Murphy	West	4.5	1	0	0	5	1.65	72	0.5879754
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	19	0.9066769
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	1	-5	-10	-5	-10	-5.9	104	0.2132968
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	0	10	5	5	5	5	54	0.7497674
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	-9	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7.9	111	0.1435426
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	5	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.1	96	0.2903093
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	2	-6	0	-5	-5	-3	90	0.3430127
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-5	-2	0	0	-5	-1.9	85	0.3989646
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	0	5	5	1.8	71	0.5958241
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	3	-6	0	-5	-5	-2.9	89	0.3479801
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	5	10	6.4	49	0.8057691
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	10	5.4	52	0.7665887
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	112	0.1405141
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-5	-5	-15	-5.8	103	0.2172368
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6668404
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	4	4	5	5	5	4.2	58	0.7142884
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-7.3	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.93	94	0.2982038
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	133	0.0664866
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	5	0.9308654
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	107	0.1869047
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0889071
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	3.7	-7	0	-5	5	-1.03	79	0.4448064
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9110929
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	-9	3	0	0	-5	-1.3	80	0.4304703
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	8	6	10	10	15	9	29	0.88739
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	26	0.8924595
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	10	10	10	6.2	50	0.7982706
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	116	0.1178479
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	45	0.8340294
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	29	0.88739
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	2	8	5	10	15	7.8	42	0.853385
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-1	-3	0	0	5	0.3	76	0.516123
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	112	0.1405141
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	7	7	10	10	10	8.1	41	0.8624709
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	13.5	2	5	10	10	6.75	47	0.8184762
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	9	0.9194552
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0765932
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	20	0.9021008
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0691346
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	31	0.8821521
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0889071
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-8.7	0	-5	-5	-10	-4.87	98	0.2558348
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0978992
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	12	5	5	5	5	5.2	53	0.7582574
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	7.5	2	0	0	5	2.15	69	0.6139832
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	11	-1	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6520199
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	10	15	8.6	34	0.8767441
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-13	1	-5	-5	-10	-5.1	99	0.2459679
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-5.5	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.35	97	0.2788809
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	-10	-5	-10	-10	-10	-8	112	0.1405141
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	15	10	15	8.6	34	0.8767441
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	1	7	0	0	-5	0.5	75	0.5268587
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	9.5	6	15	15	15	11.15	4	0.9335134
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	1	0	5	0	5	2.1	70	0.6114033
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	-2	-3	-5	0	-5	-2.8	88	0.3529737
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-12	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	134	0.0656216
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9110929
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	7	0	0	5	10	3.7	61	0.6909626
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	8	-2	-5	-5	5	-0.6	78	0.4677802
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	5	0.9308654
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	0	-5	3.1	65	0.6619277
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	2	12	10	10	10	8.6	34	0.8767441
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	34	0.8767441
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	14	0.9110929
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	5	10	10	10	15	9.5	24	0.8997521
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.7050588
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	46	0.820248
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	-5	-0.4	77	0.4785072
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	10	5	10	7.8	42	0.853385
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0889071
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.11261
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	20	0.9021008
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	22	6	-15	-15	-15	-5.6	102	0.2252419
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	20	0.9021008
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	40	0.8654122
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	2	-1	5	5	5	3	66	0.6569873
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-7	6	0	-5	-5	-1.5	82	0.4199086
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9153515
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	25	0.8973624
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9153515
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	110	0.146615
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	26	0.8924595
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	10	10	15	9.1	28	0.8899457
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0978992
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	4	-13	0	-5	-10	-5.2	100	0.2417426
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	8	0.9234068
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	20	0.9021008
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	2.5	6	0	0	5	2.45	68	0.6293534
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0978992
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.11261
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	3.5	13	0	5	5	4.95	55	0.7476204
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	15	5	5	5	5	5.5	51	0.7706938
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1026376
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.2	92	0.3331596
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	-15	-5	-10	-15	-15	-10.5	130	0.0785501
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.11261
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	31	0.8821521
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0889071
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	7	0.9272092
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	115	0.1232559
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0933231
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	3.5	0	5	5	5	3.35	63	0.6741558
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	10	4.4	57	0.7233783