2012 Election Polls and Models (10/29/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 290; Republican 248 (R +75), Obama at 51.8% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 237; Democrats 201;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	19	8	0.8126885	5.688819387
Alaska		3	25	6	0.8786409	0.878640942
Arizona		11	5.3	23	0.5978023	5.380220369
Arkansas		6	27	4	0.8964676	3.585870202
California	55		-16	43	0.2273324	12.04861878
Colorado	0	9	0	27	0.5	3.5
Connecticut	7		-11.7	39	0.2922832	1.461415986
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1750035	0.175003468
DC	3		-75	51	0.0002286	0.000228596
Florida	0	29	1.8	25	0.5335162	14.40493844
Georgia		16	13	16	0.7282319	10.19524662
Hawaii	4		-29.5	49	0.0840246	0.168049165
Idaho		4	38	3	0.9621083	1.924216648
Illinois	20		-15	42	0.2416728	4.35010976
Indiana		11	13	16	0.7282319	6.554087115
Iowa	6		-2.3	29	0.4572056	1.828822377
Kansas		6	18	9	0.7998592	3.19943662
Kentucky		8	15	14	0.7583272	4.549963413
Louisiana		8	18	9	0.7998592	4.799154931
Massachusetts	11		-16.3	44	0.2231257	2.008131426
Maine	4		-13	41	0.2717681	0.543536197
Maryland	10		-21	46	0.1632213	1.305770161
Michigan	16		-4	34	0.4258636	5.962090027
Minnesota	10		-7.3	35	0.3665066	2.932052437
Mississippi		6	20	7	0.8249965	3.299986128
Missouri		10	10.3	20	0.6848507	5.478805449
Montana		3	10	21	0.6798531	0.679853051
Nebraska		5	14	15	0.7435095	2.23052854
Nevada	6		-2.5	32	0.4535006	1.814002251
New Hampshire	4	0	-1.1	28	0.4795027	0.959005453
New Jersey	14		-10	38	0.3201469	3.841763392
New Mexico	5		-9.3	37	0.3319345	0.995803406
New York	29		-26	48	0.1121929	3.029206951
North Carolina	0	15	3.8	24	0.5704694	7.416102521
North Dakota		3	17.7	11	0.7959097	0.795909699
Ohio	18		-2.3	29	0.4572056	7.315289509
Oklahoma		7	27	4	0.8964676	4.482337752
Oregon	7		-7.5	36	0.3629945	1.814972619
Pennsylvania	20		-3.8	33	0.4295306	7.731550355
Rhode Island	4		-25	47	0.1213591	0.242718117
South Carolina		9	12	18	0.7125145	4.987601351
South Dakota		3	9	22	0.6629615	0.662961477
Tennessee		11	12	18	0.7125145	6.412630308
Texas		38	17	12	0.7865156	28.31456274
Utah		6	52	1	0.9924484	3.969793786
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0419077	0.041907653
Virginia	0	13	1.2	26	0.5223588	5.745946701
Washington	12		-12.3	40	0.2827254	2.82725411
West Virginia		5	16	13	0.7726676	2.318002711
Wisconsin	10		-2.3	29	0.4572056	3.657644755
Wyoming		3	40	2	0.9691991	0.969199142
			0
Total	281	257	21.4001		0.5314002	0.481562674	0.511715563	0.495
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	3	0.7128569				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	9	0.3234609				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	-1	8	0.4827664				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	12.7	4	0.7084241	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	25	2	0.8599933				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	53	1	0.9889955				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0708902				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.8	7	0.4862116				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1820863				-1
			0
			23.142		0.5286987		1
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	0.7	8	0.5166831			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-20.6	28	0.109159			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-3.1	17	0.4265167			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-5.5	20	0.3712031			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-17.5	27	0.1478351			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	5	4	0.6174497			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-5.7	21	0.3666948	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	10	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-13	24	0.2186228			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-26.5	29	0.0566441			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-5	20	0.3825503			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	-31	30	0.0319774			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	0.3	8	0.5071516	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	3	0.8451578	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3.7	4.8	0.5874944			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-41.4	33	0.0066809			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-17.3	26	0.1506121			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-9	23	0.2953502			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	4	0.6174497			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-5.4	19	0.373464			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-5.8	22	0.3644475			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	-27.5	30	0.050156			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	26	2	0.9398727			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	41	1	0.9928587			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-1	15	0.4761742			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-17	25	0.1548422			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	32	0.0098883			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-2.4	16	0.4429796			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	7	0.5238258			1
			0
			16.7342		0.396477		1
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	25	7	15	15	15	12.9	2	0.9576801
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.909344
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	29	8	15	15	15	13.5	1	0.9644298
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	1	3	0	-5	-5	-1.3	80	0.4310214
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.909344
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-6.1	3	-10	-10	-10	-6.01	104	0.2108797
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-2.5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.25	91	0.3319859
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-15	-10	-8.7	115	0.1224245
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	72	0.5846782
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	101	0.2393283
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	4.5	5	0	0	10	3.45	63	0.6776619
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1044632
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	4	3	10	15	10	8	42	0.857551
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	3	0.9539358
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	1	-3	-5	-5	5	-1.5	81	0.4205413
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	88	0.3640895
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	37	0.8748425
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	5	5	5	3.6	62	0.6848205
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	96	0.2964319
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1747117
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	2	-1	0	-5	5	0	75	0.5
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.6942579
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9136313
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	0	5	1.5	74	0.5794587
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3.1	90	0.339296
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	-1	4	10	10	10	6.7	50	0.8147686
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	-13	-3	0	-15	-15	-7.9	110	0.1454809
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	3	4	-5	-5	-5	-1.9	83	0.3997563
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	6	7	5	5	15	7	47	0.8252883
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	9	1	15	15	15	10.1	13	0.911507
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	17	5	10	10	10	8.7	36	0.8775755
Florida 18	Murphy	West	6	1	0	0	5	1.8	71	0.5950716
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	20	0.9049007
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	-6	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6.6	105	0.1888237
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	-3	10	5	5	5	4.7	56	0.7350836
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	-9.5	-5	-10	-10	-5	-6.95	107	0.1764381
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	3	-8	-5	-5	5	-2.3	86	0.3792516
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	-1	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.3	92	0.3295632
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-5	-2	0	0	-5	-1.9	83	0.3997563
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	-9	-1	0	0	5	-0.1	77	0.4946674
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	-1	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.3	92	0.3295632
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	10	10	7.4	46	0.8387119
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	10	5.4	51	0.7648012
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	111	0.142449
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-5	-5	-15	-5.8	102	0.2190808
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6655843
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	4	4	5	5	5	4.2	58	0.7127461
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-7.3	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.93	95	0.2996757
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	133	0.068053
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	4	0.9292731
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	105	0.1888237
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.090656
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	3.7	-7	0	0	5	-0.03	76	0.4984002
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.909344
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	-9	3	0	-5	-5	-2.3	86	0.3792516
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	9	6	10	10	15	9.1	31	0.8880877
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	28	0.8906118
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	8	1	10	10	10	7	47	0.8252883
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	116	0.1197337
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	8	1	10	10	15	8	42	0.857551
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	33	0.8855222
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	5.5	8	5	10	15	8.15	40	0.8620183
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-4	-3	0	0	-5	-2	85	0.3946017
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	111	0.142449
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	7	7	10	10	10	8.1	41	0.8605399
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	13.5	2	5	10	10	6.75	49	0.8165487
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	9	0.9177652
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0782517
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.900299
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0707269
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	34	0.8802663
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.090656
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-6	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3151795
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.099701
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	12	5	5	5	5	5.2	54	0.756503
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	7.5	2	0	0	5	2.15	70	0.6130955
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	11	-1	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6508627
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.900299
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-13	1	-5	-5	-10	-5.1	99	0.2477047
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-4	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	97	0.2872539
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	-11	-5	-10	-10	-10	-8.1	113	0.1394601
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	5	3	15	10	15	9.1	31	0.8880877
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	1	7	0	0	-5	0.5	74	0.526644
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	7	6	15	15	15	10.9	6	0.9274462
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	2	0	5	0	5	2.2	69	0.6156515
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	-2	-3	-5	0	-5	-2.8	89	0.3540967
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-13	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.3	134	0.0654578
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.909344
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	8	0	0	5	10	3.8	60	0.6942579
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	9	-2	-5	-5	5	-0.5	79	0.473356
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	4	0.9292731
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	0	-5	3.1	65	0.660704
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	2	12	10	10	10	8.6	37	0.8748425
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	37	0.8748425
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	14	0.909344
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	5	10	10	10	15	9.5	25	0.8979381
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.7035681
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	15	10	7.8	44	0.851444
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	-5	-0.4	78	0.4786791
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	10	5	10	7.8	44	0.851444
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.090656
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1144778
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.900299
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	19.5	6	-15	-15	-15	-5.85	103	0.2171117
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	21	0.900299
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	28	0.8906118
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	2	-1	5	5	5	3	66	0.6557965
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-7	6	0	-5	-5	-1.5	81	0.4205413
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9136313
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	26	0.8955368
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9136313
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	109	0.148556
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	28	0.8906118
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	4	10	10	10	15	9.4	26	0.8955368
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.099701
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	4	-13	0	-5	-10	-5.2	100	0.243497
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	8	0.9217483
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	3	8	10	15	15	9.9	19	0.907142
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	2.5	6	0	0	5	2.45	68	0.6283544
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.099701
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1144778
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	2.5	13	0	5	5	4.85	55	0.7416085
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	13	5	5	5	5	5.3	53	0.7606717
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1044632
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	1	-3	-5	-10	-5	-4.5	98	0.2737446
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	-15	-5	-10	-15	-15	-10.5	130	0.0802246
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1144778
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	34	0.8802663
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.090656
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	7	0.9255833
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	114	0.1251575
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0950993
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	3.5	0	5	5	10	4.35	57	0.7195401
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	10	10	5.4	51	0.7648012