2012 Election Polls and Models (4/27/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34), Obama at 54% of the vote.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 244; Democrats 191;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	6	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	6	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	4.5	4	0.7985584	7.187025466
Arkansas		6	0	6	0.5	2
California	55		0	6	0.5	26.5
Colorado	9		-13	48	0.0078351	0.054845866
Connecticut	7		0	6	0.5	2.5
DC	3		0	6	0.5	0.5
Florida	29		-4.2	44	0.2174843	5.872077163
Georgia		16	0	6	0.5	7
Hawaii	4		0	6	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	6	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	6	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	1	0.952833	8.575497068
Iowa	6		0	6	0.5	2
Kansas		6	0	6	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	6	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	6	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-12	47	0.0128531	0.115677992
Maine	4		0	6	0.5	1
Maryland	10		0	6	0.5	4
Michigan	16		0	6	0.5	7
Minnesota	10		0	6	0.5	4
Mississippi		6	0	6	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	5	0.7114601	5.691680965
Montana		3	0	6	0.5	0.5
Nebraska		5	0	6	0.5	1.5
Nevada	6		0	6	0.5	2
New Hampshire	4		-3.5	42	0.257653	0.515306088
New Jersey	14		-9	46	0.047167	0.566003909
New Mexico	5		-16	49	0.001469	0.004406851
New York	29		-24	50	4.074E-06	0.000110006
North Carolina	15	0	-1.5	41	0.3901885	5.072451008
North Dakota		3	0	6	0.5	0.5
Ohio	18		-5.3	45	0.1622651	2.596241681
Oklahoma		7	0	6	0.5	2.5
Oregon	7		0	6	0.5	2.5
Pennsylvania	20		0	6	0.5	9
Rhode Island	4		0	6	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	6	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	6	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	0	6	0.5	4.5
Texas		38	7	2	0.9034043	32.52255401
Utah		6	0	6	0.5	2
Vermont	3		0	6	0.5	0.5
Virginia	13		-4	43	0.2285773	2.514349961
Washington	12		0	6	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	6	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		0	6	0.5	4
Wyoming		3	6	3	0.8676413	0.867641345
			0
Total	344	191	5.37967		0.4611879	0.447484757
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	4	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.965538				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	4	0.5				-1
Louisiana		Jindal	0	4	0.5				1
Mississippi		Barbour	0	4	0.5				1
Missouri	Nixon		-18	14	0.0058928				-1
Montana	Schweitzer		0	4	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Lynch		0	4	0.5				-1
North Carolina	Etheridge	McCrory	12	2	0.9534241	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	4	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	4	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	4	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	3	0.8109697	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin		0	4	0.5				-1
			0
			7.14711		0.5525589
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	11	3	0.8668862			1
California	Feinstein		0	10	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	25	0.3693642			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-4.8	27	0.3137865			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.0216171			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Lugar	21	1	0.9831026			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	1	8	0.5402534			1
Maine	Pingree	Summers	-3	24	0.3808626	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-15	30	0.0647495			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi		Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	4	7.5	0.6569995	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin		0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2	6	0.5800979	Gain		-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Bruning	16.5	2	0.9523112	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3	6	0.6191374			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35	33	0.000202			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11.3	29	0.1267034			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-4.5	26	0.3246179			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	10	0.5			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-8.5	28	0.1951393			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey		0	10	0.5			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.4	23	0.4838756			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	30	0.0647495			-1
West Virginia	Manchin		0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	5	4	0.693347	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5402534			1
			0
			9.89394		0.4629714
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	26	0.8925152
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9300562
Arkansas 4	Ross		0	8	10	5	5	5.6	50	0.79579
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	81	0.4181341
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9300562
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	81	0.4181341
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	0	-5	-2	86	0.3839046
California 3	Garamendi		0	-1	-5	-10	-5	-4.2	100	0.2676263
California 7		Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	76	0.5933587
California 9	McNerney		0	-2	-5	-5	-5	-3.4	95	0.307865
California 10		Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.7225668
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1373298
California 21			0	3	5	5	5	3.6	63	0.7024414
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9685589
California 24	Capps		0	-3	-10	-5	-5	-4.6	102	0.2485511
California 26			0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4066413
California 31		Miller	0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	88	0.3615607
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	34	0.8690516
California 41			0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	96	0.2975586
California 47			0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.1878827
California 52		Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	78	0.5470045
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	10	10	5.8	49	0.8040568
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	6	0.9339322
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	66	0.6816747
Connecticut 5	Murphy		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1373298
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	41	0.8422679
Florida 9			0	-3	0	-10	-10	-4.6	102	0.2485511
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	5	5	10	4.8	55	0.7607076
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	26	0.8925152
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	29	0.8869549
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	31	0.8811922
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	71	0.6273209
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	10	15	8.8	24	0.9030391
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-5	-5	-3	91	0.3289325
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	10	6	48	0.8121173
Illinois 8		Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1507209
Illinois 10		Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	102	0.2485511
Illinois 11		Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	93	0.3183253
Illinois 12	Costello		0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	81	0.4181341
Illinois 13		Johnson	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	68	0.6603207
Illinois 17		Schilling	0	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	100	0.2676263
Indiana 2	Donnelly		0	7	5	5	10	5.4	52	0.7873189
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	26	0.8925152
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	120	0.1188078
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	116	0.124775
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	71	0.6273209
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	62	0.7125874
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-5	-10	-10	-3.2	93	0.3183253
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	114	0.1309484
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.947794
Maryland 6		Bartlett	0	-2	-5	0	-5	-2.4	88	0.3615607
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	131	0.0699438
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-10	-10	-10	-7.4	111	0.1373298
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9300562
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	10	4.6	56	0.7514489
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	20	0.912786
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	36	0.8560797
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	29	0.8869549
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	116	0.124775
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	36	0.8560797
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	31	0.8811922
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	5	0.9376397
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	79	0.5235432
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-10	-15	-7	108	0.1507209
Montana 1		Rehberg	0	7	10	5	10	6.4	45	0.8276129
New Jersey 3		Runyan	0	1	5	10	10	5.2	53	0.7786461
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	17	0.9173762
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.058817
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	14	0.9217821
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.052206
New York 2		King	0	-1	10	10	15	6.8	41	0.8422679
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	126	0.0919919
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	91	0.3289325
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	114	0.1309484
New York 11		Grimm	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.7225668
New York 18		Hayworth	0	2	0	5	5	2.4	70	0.6384393
New York 19		Gibson	0	-1	0	5	5	1.8	74	0.6047717
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	10	5.6	50	0.79579
New York 21	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	90	0.3396793
New York 24		Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	99	0.2874126
New York 25	Slaughter		0	5	-5	-5	-5	-2	86	0.3839046
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	34	0.8690516
New York 27	Hochul		0	7	5	5	5	4.4	57	0.7420028
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	20	0.912786
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	0	0	10	5	10	5	54	0.7697746
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	79	0.5235432
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1507209
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9300562
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	77	0.558679
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	107	0.1723871
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	17	0.9173762
North Carolina 7	McIntyre		0	11	0	0	5	3.2	65	0.6816747
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	10	6.4	45	0.8276129
North Carolina 11	Shuler		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	25	0.8978757
North Carolina 13	Miller		0	10	10	10	5	7	39	0.8492791
North Dakota 1		Berg	0	10	10	10	15	9	23	0.9080081
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.7225668
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	41	0.8422679
Ohio 16		Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	74	0.6047717
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	10	6.8	41	0.8422679
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	131	0.0699438
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-10	-15	-15	-8	120	0.1188078
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	14	0.9217821
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	116	0.124775
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	36	0.8560797
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	10	6.2	47	0.8199697
Pennsylvania 8		Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	68	0.6603207
Pennsylvania 12	Altmire		0	6	-5	-5	-5	-1.8	85	0.3952283
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	6	0.9339322
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	17	0.9173762
Pennsylvania 16		Pitts	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	6	0.9339322
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	116	0.124775
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	20	0.912786
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.947794
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	129	0.0782179
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	96	0.2975586
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	4	0.941183
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	14	0.9217821
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	71	0.6273209
Texas 34			0	-3	-10	-15	-15	-8.6	125	0.1021243
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	126	0.0919919
Utah 4	Matheson		0	13	0	0	5	3.6	63	0.7024414
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	10	10	10	7	39	0.8492791
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	124	0.1074848
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	96	0.2975586
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	126	0.0919919
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-10	-15	-8	120	0.1188078
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	10	15	7.8	33	0.875225
Washington 10			0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	120	0.1188078
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	10	15	9.8	13	0.9260074
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	105	0.1959432
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	130	0.0739926
Wisconsin 7		Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	67	0.6710675
Wisconsin 8		Ribble	0	2	5	5	10	4.4	57	0.7420028