Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Romney Wins Popular Vote but Loses the Electoral College

Here is how the past few election cycles voted based on exit polls in terms of political ideology:

Year

Democrat %

Republican %

Independent %

Notes

2000

39

35

27

Gore Wins by 0.1% Popular Vote

2002

38

40

22

Republicans pick up a few House seats

2004

37

37

26

Bush by 3%

2006

38

36

26

Democrats make big gains in the House

2008

39

32

29

Obama by over 7%

2010

35

35

29

Republicans make big gains in the House

Average

37.6666667

35.83333333

26.5

Democrats by 1.88%

The difficult thing to measure is what is going to be the breakdown in political ideology in the 2012 Election. Here are some poll figures and some simple manipulations to better understand the data and to break it down by voting ideology, ethnicity, and gender (those results are in bold font):

All Numbers are in %

Poll

D

R

I

O

RR

MA

Date

IPOS/Reuters

46

38

19

46

46

D 8

20-Oct

Gallup

38

33

29

46

51

D 5

Daily

Rasmussen

37

36

33

47

49

D 1

Daily

NBC

32

26

40

47

47

D 6

21-Oct

FOX

38

32

30

45

46

D 6

10-Oct

PEW

34

34

29

47

47

D 2

29-Oct

National Journal

36

29

30

47

47

D 7

3-Oct

NPR

38

30

32

51

44

D 8

3-Oct

CNN

40

32

28

47

48

D 8

25-Oct

CBS

34

34

32

48

46

0

22-Oct

TIPP

40

32

28

45

44

D 8

Daily

Quinnipiac

36

33

29

49

45

D 3

2-Oct

Battleground

43

41

15

49

49

D 2

29-Oct

Survey USA

36

33

31

45

48

D 3

22-Oct

AP/GfK

31

25

27

45

47

D 6

25-Oct

WA Times

37

35

28

50

47

D 2

22-Oct

YouGov

45

36

20

48

46

D 9

25-Oct

ABC

34

29

33

49

49

D 5

Daily

American Research

40

34

26

49

47

D 4

21-Sep

PPP

35

29

29

49

48

D 6

22-Oct

UCONN

44

38

18

48

45

D 6

19-Oct

Poll Average

38

33

28

47

47

5

0.524

2012 Model

38

34

28

1

1

1

Poll Scale

48

49

-0.9

Poll

DO

RO

IO

DR

RR

IR

MO

FO

MR

FR

WO

NOW

WR

NWR

M

F

W

NW

IPOS/Reuters

87

4

38

7

92

52

Gallup

91

6

43

6

92

43

42

48

52

45

38

78

56

17

48

52

76

24

Rasmussen

90

6

41

8

92

49

NBC

90

7

40

9

92

50

43

51

53

43

36

80

56

17

48

52

74

26

FOX

89

6

32

5

90

44

41

49

51

41

35

79

56

14

47

53

78

22

PEW

94

6

40

5

92

48

44

50

51

44

37

81

57

17

49

51

76

24

National Journal

91

5

41

6

92

49

42

51

52

44

38

81

55

19

47

53

74

26

NPR

91

4

45

4

91

46

45

55

47

40

40

81

53

17

47

53

74

26

CNN

93

4

41

6

96

49

47

53

50

44

41

73

56

22

47

53

74

26

CBS

92

7

46

6

89

42

47

50

47

45

40

54

47

53

78

22

TIPP

87

7

38

7

85

44

46

50

45

40

39

83

51

8

47

53

78

22

Quinnipiac

94

7

45

5

91

47

42

56

52

38

42

80

53

16

47

53

78

22

Battleground

92

7

46

7

92

52

40

84

55

14

77

23

Survey USA

91

6

33

6

90

52

40

49

51

45

38

78

57

17

47

53

78

22

AP/GfK

93

7

43

7

93

57

47

50

51

48

37

71

58

21

50

50

65

28

WA Times

93

8

42

6

90

49

49

50

47

47

40

80

58

17

47

53

74

26

YouGov

48

52

73

27

ABC

93

5

45

7

95

55

43

52

51

44

40

77

55

22

47

53

76

24

American Research

90

6

43

5

92

50

45

52

51

43

41

84

55

16

48

52

77

23

PPP

88

5

40

8

94

53

40

49

53

45

39

78

57

18

46

54

72

28

UCONN

88

6

37

9

90

38

41

55

53

38

36

83

56

14

48

52

74

26

Averages

91

6

41

6

92

48

44

51.2

50

43.18

39

79.5

55

17

48

53

75

25

2008 Averages

39

32

29

21

27.1

24

22.884

30

17.9

43

3.79

46

54

76

24

2008 Averages

93

7

51

7

93

49

50

57

50

43

45

86

55

14

46

54

76

24

2010 Averages

35

35

29

47

53

78

22

2012 Model

38

34

28

38

34

28

47

53

78

23

35

2

11

2.5

31

14

1

1

1

0.9

2012 Model Results

48

47

1

48

46

1.615

46

47

-0.5

O

RR

Poll Ave

47

47

Poll Scaled

48

49

Poll Affiliation

48

47

Poll Gender

48

46

Poll Ethnicity

46

47

Average

48

47

Key

All Numbers are in %

D - Democrat

R - Republican

I - Independent

O - Obama

RR - Romney

MA - Margin

DO = Democrats for Obama

RO - Republicans for Obama

IO - Independents for Obama

DR - Democrats for Romney

RR - Republicans for Romney

IR - Independents for Romney

MO - Males for Obama

FO - Females for Obama

MR - Males for Romney

FR - Females for Romney

WO - Whites for Obama

NWO - Non Whites for Obama

WR - Whites for Romney

NWR - Non Whites for Romney

F - Female

M - Male

W - Whites

NW - Non Whites

No matter how you crunch the national numbers, the state poll numbers continue to look challenging for Romney. Despite moving to the lead in the national poll averages (My poll averages go back a month so Obama has a slight lead but the trend is to Romney), Obama still has a big lead in the Electoral College. Romney has to win Florida, Virginia, and Ohio and those state polls are a statistical tie – and Ohio still seems to favor Obama. In fact, other than North Carolina (Romney 4 points), Florida (Romney 1 point), Colorado (Tie) and Virginia (Tie) Romney is down in all swing states including – Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. And if Romney loses Virginia and or Ohio, he is going to have to win some combination of NV, NH, MI, WI, and IA to win the election. Right now the electoral count is 294 to 244. Good news for Romney is that polls are tightening in Pennsylvania and Minnesota, but Obama still has a 4 to 5 point lead. This may give Romney more options to get to 270 but time is running out as the Romney camp tries to expand their electoral map chances. My internal polling methods have Romney ahead in Florida by 1.2% and Obama ahead in Ohio by 1.1%. If Romney does not win Ohio, his path to the Presidency is going to be hard. I project the final Electoral College count at this time to be 294 to 244 in favor of Obama.

There is still reason for hope. Republicans have become more excited about Romney as the conservative choice for President and polls indicate they are more energized than Democrats because they do not want another 4 years of Obama (look at Gallup Poll demographics and which groups of people are definitely going to vote http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/US-Presidential-Election-Center.aspx - this says a lot about who is excited about the election). The generic congressional ballot between Democrats and Republicans is even and that is good news for Republicans because they historically trail in this poll. Also, for the first time in the campaign Romney’s favorability ratings are higher than Obama’s. It is all about turnout and maybe Romney can pull off a few state upsets. Are the poll models listed above correct? The average of the last polls by 17 firms has Obama ahead by nearly 0.2% points (47 – 47). However, many of these polls still seem to be oversampling Democrats by large margins when compared to historical trends outlined above. My best guess at an ideological breakdown in 2012 election is 38-D/34-R/29-I (the polls listed above have an average breakdown of 38-D/33-R/28-I). If that is the case when this election modeled using these numbers we get the following:

Obama – 48% / Romney 49% (Romney by 1%)

Also, using the above data in the polls when broken out by party, gender, and race (not all polls give this data) then my models show the following (I am expecting 53% / 47% margin for women and a 77.5% / 22.5% margin for white versus non-white voters in 2012).

By Party: Obama 48% / Romney 47% (0.5% advantage for Obama)

By Gender: Obama 48% / Romney 46% (1.3% advantage for Obama)

By Ethnicity: Obama 47% / Romney 47% (0.5% average for Romney)

There you have it. I have modeled the polls 5 ways and Obama comes out on top in 3. If I average all 5 methods then we are in a dead heat: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (actual spread is less than 0.1%). If Democrats only have a 3% advantage on Election Day, well Romney can win the popular vote hands down. If voter turnout favors Republicans as both Gallup and Rasmussen polls suggest then Romney will win the popular vote easily. But the Electoral College is another story – but if voter turnout favors Republicans Romney should win the Electoral College. At this point I see Romney winning the popular vote 48.9% to 48.8% with 2.3% voting for another candidate.

Monday, October 29, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (10/29/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 290; Republican 248 (R +75), Obama at 51.8% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 237; Democrats 201;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

19

8

0.8126885

5.688819387

Alaska

3

25

6

0.8786409

0.878640942

Arizona

11

5.3

23

0.5978023

5.380220369

Arkansas

6

27

4

0.8964676

3.585870202

California

55

-16

43

0.2273324

12.04861878

Colorado

0

9

0

27

0.5

3.5

Connecticut

7

-11.7

39

0.2922832

1.461415986

Delaware

3

-20

45

0.1750035

0.175003468

DC

3

-75

51

0.0002286

0.000228596

Florida

0

29

1.8

25

0.5335162

14.40493844

Georgia

16

13

16

0.7282319

10.19524662

Hawaii

4

-29.5

49

0.0840246

0.168049165

Idaho

4

38

3

0.9621083

1.924216648

Illinois

20

-15

42

0.2416728

4.35010976

Indiana

11

13

16

0.7282319

6.554087115

Iowa

6

-2.3

29

0.4572056

1.828822377

Kansas

6

18

9

0.7998592

3.19943662

Kentucky

8

15

14

0.7583272

4.549963413

Louisiana

8

18

9

0.7998592

4.799154931

Massachusetts

11

-16.3

44

0.2231257

2.008131426

Maine

4

-13

41

0.2717681

0.543536197

Maryland

10

-21

46

0.1632213

1.305770161

Michigan

16

-4

34

0.4258636

5.962090027

Minnesota

10

-7.3

35

0.3665066

2.932052437

Mississippi

6

20

7

0.8249965

3.299986128

Missouri

10

10.3

20

0.6848507

5.478805449

Montana

3

10

21

0.6798531

0.679853051

Nebraska

5

14

15

0.7435095

2.23052854

Nevada

6

-2.5

32

0.4535006

1.814002251

New Hampshire

4

0

-1.1

28

0.4795027

0.959005453

New Jersey

14

-10

38

0.3201469

3.841763392

New Mexico

5

-9.3

37

0.3319345

0.995803406

New York

29

-26

48

0.1121929

3.029206951

North Carolina

0

15

3.8

24

0.5704694

7.416102521

North Dakota

3

17.7

11

0.7959097

0.795909699

Ohio

18

-2.3

29

0.4572056

7.315289509

Oklahoma

7

27

4

0.8964676

4.482337752

Oregon

7

-7.5

36

0.3629945

1.814972619

Pennsylvania

20

-3.8

33

0.4295306

7.731550355

Rhode Island

4

-25

47

0.1213591

0.242718117

South Carolina

9

12

18

0.7125145

4.987601351

South Dakota

3

9

22

0.6629615

0.662961477

Tennessee

11

12

18

0.7125145

6.412630308

Texas

38

17

12

0.7865156

28.31456274

Utah

6

52

1

0.9924484

3.969793786

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0419077

0.041907653

Virginia

0

13

1.2

26

0.5223588

5.745946701

Washington

12

-12.3

40

0.2827254

2.82725411

West Virginia

5

16

13

0.7726676

2.318002711

Wisconsin

10

-2.3

29

0.4572056

3.657644755

Wyoming

3

40

2

0.9691991

0.969199142

0

Total

281

257

21.4001

0.5314002

0.481562674

0.511715563

0.495

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

Cragg

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

3

0.7128569

1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.6

9

0.3234609

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

-1

8

0.4827664

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

12.7

4

0.7084241

Gain

1

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

25

2

0.8599933

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

53

1

0.9889955

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

11

0.0708902

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-0.8

7

0.4862116

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

10

0.1820863

-1

0

23.142

0.5286987

1

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

0.7

8

0.5166831

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-20.6

28

0.109159

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

-3.1

17

0.4265167

-1

Delaware

Carper

Wade

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-5.5

20

0.3712031

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-17.5

27

0.1478351

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

5

4

0.6174497

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-5.7

21

0.3666948

Gain

-1

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

10

0.5

Gain

0

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-13

24

0.2186228

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-26.5

29

0.0566441

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-5

20

0.3825503

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

-31

30

0.0319774

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

0.3

8

0.5071516

Gain

1

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

17

3

0.8451578

Gain

1

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

3.7

4.8

0.5874944

1

New York

Gillibrand

Long

-41.4

33

0.0066809

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-17.3

26

0.1506121

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-9

23

0.2953502

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

4

0.6174497

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-5.4

19

0.373464

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-5.8

22

0.3644475

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

Hinkley

-27.5

30

0.050156

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

26

2

0.9398727

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

41

1

0.9928587

1

Vermont

Sanders

MacGovern

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-1

15

0.4761742

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-17

25

0.1548422

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

32

0.0098883

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

-2.4

16

0.4429796

-1

Wyoming

Chesnut

Barrasso

1

7

0.5238258

1

0

16.7342

0.396477

1

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

25

7

15

15

15

12.9

2

0.9576801

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.909344

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

29

8

15

15

15

13.5

1

0.9644298

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

1

3

0

-5

-5

-1.3

80

0.4310214

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.909344

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-6.1

3

-10

-10

-10

-6.01

104

0.2108797

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

-2.5

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.25

91

0.3319859

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-15

-10

-8.7

115

0.1224245

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

72

0.5846782

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

101

0.2393283

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

4.5

5

0

0

10

3.45

63

0.6776619

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

120

0.1044632

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

4

3

10

15

10

8

42

0.857551

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

3

0.9539358

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

1

-3

-5

-5

5

-1.5

81

0.4205413

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

88

0.3640895

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

37

0.8748425

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

62

0.6848205

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

96

0.2964319

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.1747117

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

2

-1

0

-5

5

0

75

0.5

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.6942579

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9136313

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

3

1

0

0

5

1.5

74

0.5794587

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-6

2.5

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

90

0.339296

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

-1

4

10

10

10

6.7

50

0.8147686

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

-13

-3

0

-15

-15

-7.9

110

0.1454809

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

3

4

-5

-5

-5

-1.9

83

0.3997563

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

6

7

5

5

15

7

47

0.8252883

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

9

1

15

15

15

10.1

13

0.911507

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

17

5

10

10

10

8.7

36

0.8775755

Florida 18

Murphy

West

6

1

0

0

5

1.8

71

0.5950716

Florida 7

Kendall

Mica

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

20

0.9049007

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

-6

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6.6

105

0.1888237

Georgia 12

Barrow

Anderson

-3

10

5

5

5

4.7

56

0.7350836

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

-9.5

-5

-10

-10

-5

-6.95

107

0.1764381

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

3

-8

-5

-5

5

-2.3

86

0.3792516

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

-1

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.3

92

0.3295632

Illinois 12

Enyart

Plummer

-5

-2

0

0

-5

-1.9

83

0.3997563

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

-9

-1

0

0

5

-0.1

77

0.4946674

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

-1

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.3

92

0.3295632

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

10

10

10

7.4

46

0.8387119

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

51

0.7648012

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

111

0.142449

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-5

-5

-15

-5.8

102

0.2190808

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

64

0.6655843

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

4

4

5

5

5

4.2

58

0.7127461

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-7.3

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.93

95

0.2996757

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-15.5

-3

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

133

0.068053

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

4

0.9292731

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

105

0.1888237

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.090656

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

3.7

-7

0

0

5

-0.03

76

0.4984002

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.909344

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

-9

3

0

-5

-5

-2.3

86

0.3792516

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

9

6

10

10

15

9.1

31

0.8880877

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

28

0.8906118

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

8

1

10

10

10

7

47

0.8252883

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

116

0.1197337

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

8

1

10

10

15

8

42

0.857551

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

33

0.8855222

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

5.5

8

5

10

15

8.15

40

0.8620183

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-4

-3

0

0

-5

-2

85

0.3946017

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

111

0.142449

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

7

7

10

10

10

8.1

41

0.8605399

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

13.5

2

5

10

10

6.75

49

0.8165487

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

9

0.9177652

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

131

0.0782517

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

21

0.900299

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

132

0.0707269

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

34

0.8802663

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.090656

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-6

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

94

0.3151795

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.099701

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

12

5

5

5

5

5.2

54

0.756503

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

7.5

2

0

0

5

2.15

70

0.6130955

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

11

-1

0

5

5

2.9

67

0.6508627

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

21

0.900299

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-13

1

-5

-5

-10

-5.1

99

0.2477047

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-4

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

97

0.2872539

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

-11

-5

-10

-10

-10

-8.1

113

0.1394601

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

5

3

15

10

15

9.1

31

0.8880877

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

1

7

0

0

-5

0.5

74

0.526644

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

7

6

15

15

15

10.9

6

0.9274462

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

2

0

5

0

5

2.2

69

0.6156515

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

-2

-3

-5

0

-5

-2.8

89

0.3540967

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

-13

-5

-15

-15

-15

-11.3

134

0.0654578

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.909344

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

8

0

0

5

10

3.8

60

0.6942579

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

9

-2

-5

-5

5

-0.5

79

0.473356

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

4

0.9292731

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

0

-5

3.1

65

0.660704

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

2

12

10

10

10

8.6

37

0.8748425

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

37

0.8748425

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

14

0.909344

North Dakota 1

Gullleson

Cramer

5

10

10

10

15

9.5

25

0.8979381

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

59

0.7035681

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

15

10

7.8

44

0.851444

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

-5

-0.4

78

0.4786791

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

0

14

10

5

10

7.8

44

0.851444

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.090656

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1144778

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

21

0.900299

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

19.5

6

-15

-15

-15

-5.85

103

0.2171117

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

21

0.900299

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

28

0.8906118

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

2

-1

5

5

5

3

66

0.6557965

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-7

6

0

-5

-5

-1.5

81

0.4205413

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9136313

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

26

0.8955368

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9136313

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

109

0.148556

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

28

0.8906118

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

4

10

10

10

15

9.4

26

0.8955368

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.099701

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

4

-13

0

-5

-10

-5.2

100

0.243497

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

8

0.9217483

Texas 14

Lampson

Weber

3

8

10

15

15

9.9

19

0.907142

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

2.5

6

0

0

5

2.45

68

0.6283544

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.099701

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1144778

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

2.5

13

0

5

5

4.85

55

0.7416085

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

13

5

5

5

5

5.3

53

0.7606717

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

120

0.1044632

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

1

-3

-5

-10

-5

-4.5

98

0.2737446

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

-15

-5

-10

-15

-15

-10.5

130

0.0802246

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1144778

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

34

0.8802663

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.090656

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

7

0.9255833

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

114

0.1251575

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

125

0.0950993

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

3.5

0

5

5

10

4.35

57

0.7195401

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

10

10

5.4

51

0.7648012