Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.
Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 347; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 55.7% of winning the election.
Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)
Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)
House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 227; Democrats 211;
Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:
Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206
Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)
Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)
House Races: Republicans 232; Democrats 206
| | Presidential Race | | | | | |
| State | Democrat Electoral Vote | Republican Electoral Vote | Poll | Rank | Probability | Weighted Probability | | | | |
| Alabama | | 9 | 18 | 7 | 0.8106669 | 5.674668328 | | | | |
| Alaska | | 3 | 25 | 5 | 0.8892818 | 0.889281777 | | | | |
| Arizona | | 11 | 8.4 | 20 | 0.6594025 | 5.9346227 | | | | |
| Arkansas | | 6 | 24 | 6 | 0.8797642 | 3.519056699 | | | | |
| California | 55 | | -20 | 44 | 0.1639942 | 8.691690117 | | | | |
| Colorado | 9 | | -2.1 | 25 | 0.4590973 | 3.213680804 | | | | |
| Connecticut | 7 | | -12.3 | 39 | 0.2737279 | 1.368639408 | | | | |
| Delaware | 3 | | -20 | 44 | 0.1639942 | 0.163994153 | | | | |
| DC | 3 | | -75 | 51 | 0.0001222 | 0.000122155 | | | | |
| Florida | 29 | 0 | -2.2 | 26 | 0.4571568 | 12.34323475 | | | | |
| Georgia | | 16 | 13.3 | 16 | 0.7423107 | 10.39235009 | | | | |
| Hawaii | 4 | | -27 | 49 | 0.0933283 | 0.186656522 | | | | |
| Idaho | | 4 | 34 | 2 | 0.9518333 | 1.903666682 | | | | |
| Illinois | 20 | | -15 | 41 | 0.231587 | 4.168565976 | | | | |
| Indiana | | 11 | 16 | 10 | 0.7830511 | 7.047459952 | | | | |
| Iowa | 6 | | -4 | 29 | 0.422448 | 1.689792061 | | | | |
| Kansas | | 6 | 17 | 9 | 0.7971397 | 3.188558638 | | | | |
| Kentucky | | 8 | 14 | 14 | 0.7532402 | 4.519441442 | | | | |
| Louisiana | | 8 | 16 | 10 | 0.7830511 | 4.698306634 | | | | |
| Massachusetts | 11 | | -22.8 | 46 | 0.1323999 | 1.191598818 | | | | |
| Maine | 4 | | -15.2 | 42 | 0.2286161 | 0.457232167 | | | | |
| Maryland | 10 | | -23 | 47 | 0.1303157 | 1.042525608 | | | | |
| Michigan | 16 | | -8.6 | 35 | 0.3370182 | 4.718254737 | | | | |
| Minnesota | 10 | | -8.4 | 33 | 0.3405975 | 2.724779822 | | | | |
| Mississippi | | 6 | 18 | 7 | 0.8106669 | 3.242667616 | | | | |
| Missouri | | 10 | 7.3 | 21 | 0.6394666 | 5.11573305 | | | | |
| Montana | | 3 | 10.3 | 18 | 0.6927848 | 0.692784831 | | | | |
| Nebraska | | 5 | 12.5 | 17 | 0.7295189 | 2.188556801 | | | | |
| Nevada | 6 | | -3.4 | 28 | 0.4339645 | 1.735858149 | | | | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | | -2.3 | 27 | 0.4552174 | 0.910434896 | | | | |
| New Jersey | 14 | | -12.3 | 39 | 0.2737279 | 3.284734579 | | | | |
| New Mexico | 5 | | -10 | 37 | 0.3123901 | 0.937170192 | | | | |
| New York | 29 | | -26.3 | 48 | 0.0991694 | 2.677574181 | | | | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 0 | -1 | 24 | 0.480496 | 6.246448378 | | | | |
| North Dakota | | 3 | 15 | 12 | 0.768413 | 0.768413001 | | | | |
| Ohio | 18 | | -4.1 | 30 | 0.4205347 | 6.728555957 | | | | |
| Oklahoma | | 7 | 29 | 4 | 0.921956 | 4.609780093 | | | | |
| Oregon | 7 | | -8.5 | 34 | 0.338806 | 1.694030086 | | | | |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | | -9.5 | 36 | 0.3210973 | 5.779751124 | | | | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | | -17 | 43 | 0.2028603 | 0.405720681 | | | | |
| South Carolina | | 9 | 10 | 19 | 0.6876099 | 4.813269551 | | | | |
| South Dakota | | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0.6154117 | 0.615411727 | | | | |
| Tennessee | | 11 | 7 | 22 | 0.6339603 | 5.705643027 | | | | |
| Texas | | 38 | 15 | 12 | 0.768413 | 27.66286805 | | | | |
| Utah | | 6 | 42 | 1 | 0.9800202 | 3.920080601 | | | | |
| Vermont | 3 | | -37 | 50 | 0.0351772 | 0.03517723 | | | | |
| Virginia | 13 | 0 | -4.5 | 31 | 0.4129009 | 4.54190955 | | | | |
| Washington | 12 | | -12 | 38 | 0.278634 | 2.786339707 | | | | |
| West Virginia | | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0.7532402 | 2.259720721 | | | | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | | -7.8 | 32 | 0.3514206 | 2.811365188 | | | | |
| Wyoming | | 3 | 30 | 3 | 0.9288475 | 0.928847452 | | | | |
| | | 0 | | | | | | | |
| Total | 347 | 191 | 20.4463 | | 0.5064873 | 0.443280521 | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Governor Races | | | | |
| | | | | |
| State | Democrat | Republican | Poll | Rank | Probability |
|
| Incumbent |
| Delaware | Markell | Cragg | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | -1 | |
| Indiana | Gregg | Pence | 13 | 2 | 0.7677279 | | | | 1 | |
| Missouri | Nixon | Spence | -10.6 | 9 | 0.2754674 | | | | -1 | |
| Montana | Bullock | Hill | -3 | 8 | 0.4329844 | | | | -1 | |
| New Hampshire | Hassan | Lamontagne | 1.5 | 4 | 0.533627 | Gain | 1 | | -1 | |
| North Carolina | Dalton | McCrory | 7.6 | 3 | 0.6655211 | Gain | 1 | | -1 | |
| North Dakota | Taylor | Dalrymple | 35 | 1 | 0.9755299 | | | | 1 | |
| Utah | Cooke | Herbert | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | | | | 1 | |
| Vermont | Shumlin | Brock | -34 | 11 | 0.0278835 | | | | -1 | |
| Washington | McKena | Inslee | -0.7 | 7 | 0.4842928 | | | | -1 | |
| West Virginia | Tomblin | Maloney | -21 | 10 | 0.1187085 | | | | -1 | |
| | | 0 | | | | | | | |
| | | 17.7745 | | 0.4801584 | | 2 | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Senate Races | | | | |
| | | | | |
| State | Democrat | Republican | Poll | Rank | Probability |
|
| Incumbent | | |
| Arizona | Carmona | Flake | 7 | 2 | 0.7280676 | | | 1 | | |
| California | Feinstein | Emken | -18.5 | 30 | 0.0543395 | | | -1 | | |
| Connecticut | Murphy | McMahon | -0.5 | 17 | 0.482709 | | | -1 | | |
| Delaware | Carper | Wade | 0 | 8 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Florida | Nelson | Mack | -8.3 | 24 | 0.2358537 | | | -1 | | |
| Hawaii | Hirono | Lingle | -12 | 27 | 0.1490456 | | | -1 | | |
| Indiana | Donnelly | Mourdock | 1 | 6 | 0.5345495 | | | 1 | | |
| Massachusetts | Warren | Brown | -2.6 | 18 | 0.4108148 | Gain | -1 | 1 | | |
| Maine | Dill | Summers | 0 | 8 | 0.5 | Gain | 0 | 1 | | |
| Michigan | Stabenow | Hoekstra | -9.5 | 25 | 0.2050387 | | | -1 | | |
| Minnesota | Klobuchar | Bills | -21.5 | 31 | 0.0311403 | | | -1 | | |
| Mississippi | Gore | Wicker | 0 | 8 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Missouri | McCaskill | Akin | -5.3 | 23 | 0.3229125 | | | -1 | | |
| Maryland | Cardin | Bongino | 0 | 7 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Montana | Tester | Rehberg | 1.7 | 4 | 0.5585955 | Gain | 1 | -1 | | |
| Nebraska | Kerrey | Ficsher | 17 | 1 | 0.9297716 | Gain | 1 | -1 | | |
| Nevada | Berkley | Heller | 2.6 | 4 | 0.5891852 | | | 1 | | |
| New York | Gillibrand | Long | -40 | 33 | 0.0002617 | | | -1 | | |
| New Jersey | Menendez | Kyrillos | -11.7 | 26 | 0.1551668 | | | -1 | | |
| New Mexico | Heinrich | Wilson | -8 | 23 | 0.2439382 | | | -1 | | |
| North Dakota | Heitkamp | Berg | 5 | 3 | 0.6676947 | Gain | 1 | -1 | | |
| Ohio | Brown | Mandel | -7.2 | 22 | 0.2662083 | | | -1 | | |
| Pennsylvania | Casey | Smith | -13.2 | 28 | 0.1261897 | | | -1 | | |
| Rhode Island | Whitehouse | Hinkley | 0 | 8 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Tennessee | Clayton | Corker | 0 | 8 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Texas | Sadler | Cruz | 0 | 8 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Utah | Howell | Hatch | 0 | 8 | 0.5 | | | 1 | | |
| Vermont | Sanders | MacGovern | 0 | 8 | 0.5 | | | -1 | | |
| Virginia | Kaine | Allen | -4.4 | 19 | 0.3514051 | | | -1 | | |
| Washington | Cantwell | Baumgartner | -13.5 | 29 | 0.1208793 | | | -1 | | |
| West Virginia | Manchin | Raese | -39 | 32 | 0.0003601 | | | -1 | | |
| Wisconsin | Baldwin | Thompson | -5 | 20 | 0.3323053 | | | -1 | | |
| Wyoming | Chesnut | Barrasso | 1 | 6 | 0.5345495 | | | 1 | | |
| | | 0 | | | | | | | |
| | | 11.5325 | | 0.3797267 | | 2 | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| House Races | | | | | | | | | |
|
| State | Democrat | Republican | Poll | PVI | Cook | Sabato | Election Projection | AVE | Rank | Probability |
| Arkansas 1 | Ellington | Crawford | 0 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 9.4 | 22 | 0.9013471 |
| Arkansas 2 | Rule | Griffin | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 0.9148996 |
| Arkansas 4 | Jeffress | Cotton | 0 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10.6 | 6 | 0.9270064 |
| Arizona 1 | Kirkpatrick | Paton | -3 | 3 | 0 | -5 | -10 | -2.7 | 86 | 0.3555717 |
| Arizona 5 | Morgan | Salmon | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 0.9148996 |
| Arizona 2 | Barber | McSally | -5 | 3 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -5.9 | 104 | 0.2091944 |
| Arizona 9 | Sinema | Parker | -5 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -3.5 | 90 | 0.3155975 |
| California 3 | Garamendi | Vann | -15 | -1 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -7.7 | 109 | 0.1454612 |
| California 7 | Bera | Lungren | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -0.4 | 77 | 0.4781241 |
| California 9 | McNerney | Gill | -9 | -2 | -5 | -5 | -10 | -5.3 | 102 | 0.2336356 |
| California 10 | Hernandez | Denham | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5.7 | 50 | 0.7828306 |
| California 16 | Costa | Whelan | 0 | -2 | -15 | -10 | -15 | -8.4 | 114 | 0.1246381 |
| California 21 | Hernandez | Valadao | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 6.6 | 44 | 0.8173279 |
| California 23 | Phillips | McCarthy | 0 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 12.6 | 1 | 0.9580206 |
| California 24 | Capps | Maldonado | 0 | -3 | -5 | -5 | -10 | -4.6 | 96 | 0.2640474 |
| California 26 | Brownley | Strickland | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -1.6 | 80 | 0.41315 |
| California 31 | Dutton | Miller | 0 | -2 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8.6 | 33 | 0.8809085 |
| California 36 | Ruiz | Bono Mack | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 5.6 | 51 | 0.7787781 |
| California 41 | Takano | Tavaglione | -4 | -3 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -4 | 91 | 0.2916319 |
| California 47 | Lowenthal | DeLong | 0 | -5 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -7 | 107 | 0.1685047 |
| California 52 | Peters | Bilbray | 0 | -1 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -2.2 | 84 | 0.381424 |
| Colorado 3 | Pace | Tipton | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3.8 | 58 | 0.6988836 |
| Colorado 4 | Shaffer | Gardner | 0 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10.2 | 9 | 0.919092 |
| Colorado 6 | Miklosi | Coffman | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.5 | 72 | 0.5815006 |
| Connecticut 5 | Esty | Roraback | -6 | 2.5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -3.1 | 87 | 0.3353515 |
| Florida 2 | Lawson | Southerland | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 6.8 | 42 | 0.8245022 |
| Florida 9 | Grayson | Long | 0 | -3 | 0 | -10 | -10 | -4.6 | 96 | 0.2640474 |
| Florida 26 | Garcia | Rivera | 9 | 4 | 0 | 15 | -5 | 3.7 | 60 | 0.6940898 |
| Florida 10 | Demings | Webster | 0 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8.4 | 37 | 0.8753619 |
| Florida 13 | Ehrlich | Young | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 8.2 | 38 | 0.8696373 |
| Florida 16 | Fitzgerald | Buchanan | 0 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0.7947276 |
| Florida 18 | Murphy | West | -1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2.1 | 69 | 0.6133371 |
| Florida 7 | Kendall | Mica | 0 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9.8 | 17 | 0.9105464 |
| Florida 22 | Frankel | Hasner | 0 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -10 | -5 | 100 | 0.2464261 |
| Georgia 12 | Barrow | Anderson | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0.7535739 |
| Illinois 8 | Duckworth | Walsh | 0 | -5 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -7 | 107 | 0.1685047 |
| Illinois 10 | Schneider | Dold | 0 | -8 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -4.6 | 96 | 0.2640474 |
| Illinois 11 | Foster | Biggert | 0 | -6 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -3.2 | 88 | 0.3303674 |
| Illinois 12 | Enyart | Plummer | -7 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -2.1 | 83 | 0.3866629 |
| Illinois 13 | Gill | Davis | 0 | -1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2.8 | 65 | 0.6495243 |
| Illinois 17 | Bustos | Schilling | 13 | -6 | 0 | -5 | 5 | 0.1 | 74 | 0.5054716 |
| Indiana 2 | Mullen | Walorski | 0 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | 52 | 0.7705447 |
| Indiana 8 | Crooks | Bucshon | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 6.4 | 45 | 0.8099732 |
| Iowa 1 | Braley | Lange | 0 | -5 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -8 | 112 | 0.1362667 |
| Iowa 2 | Loebsack | Archer | 0 | -4 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9.8 | 125 | 0.0894536 |
| Iowa 3 | Boswell | Latham | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3.2 | 62 | 0.6696326 |
| Iowa 4 | Vilsack | King | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3.8 | 58 | 0.6988836 |
| Kentucky 6 | Chandler | Barr | -9.5 | 9 | -5 | -5 | -15 | -4.15 | 94 | 0.2846113 |
| Maine 2 | Michaud | Raye | -15.5 | -3 | -15 | -10 | -15 | -10.2 | 131 | 0.0819412 |
| Maryland 1 | Rosen | Harris | 0 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 0.9343142 |
| Maryland 6 | Delany | Bartlett | -2 | -2 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -6.6 | 106 | 0.1826721 |
| Massachusetts 9 | Keating | Sheldon | 0 | -5 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -10 | 127 | 0.0851004 |
| Massachusetts 6 | Tierney | Tisei | -7 | -7 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -4.1 | 92 | 0.2869425 |
| Missouri 2 | Koenen | Wagner | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 0.9148996 |
| Michigan 1 | McDowell | Benishek | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0.6 | 72 | 0.5327934 |
| Michigan 3 | Pestka | Amash | 8 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 28 | 0.8914736 |
| Michigan 7 | Haskell | Walberg | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9.2 | 25 | 0.8964958 |
| Michigan 11 | Taj | Bentivolio | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 6.2 | 47 | 0.8024393 |
| Minnesota 1 | Walz | Quist | 0 | 1 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -8.8 | 116 | 0.1137215 |
| Minnesota 2 | Obermueller | Kline | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 7.2 | 40 | 0.8383067 |
| Minnesota 3 | Barnes | Paulsen | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 28 | 0.8914736 |
| Minnesota 6 | Graves | Bachman | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8.8 | 30 | 0.8862785 |
| Minnesota 8 | Nolan | Cravaack | -2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -1.8 | 82 | 0.4025003 |
| Minnesota 7 | Peterson | Byberg | 0 | 5 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -8 | 112 | 0.1362667 |
| Montana 1 | Gillan | Daines | 5.7 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 6.97 | 41 | 0.830458 |
| New Jersey 3 | Adler | Runyan | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 4.4 | 55 | 0.7269073 |
| New Jersey 5 | Gussen | Garrett | 0 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10.4 | 8 | 0.9231266 |
| New Jersey 6 | Pallone | Little | 0 | -8 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -10.6 | 132 | 0.0729936 |
| New Jersey 7 | Chivukula | Lance | 0 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9.6 | 18 | 0.9060298 |
| New Jersey 8 | Sires | Karczewski | 0 | -10 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -11 | 133 | 0.0656858 |
| New York 2 | Falcone | King | 0 | -1 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8.8 | 30 | 0.8862785 |
| New York 3 | Israel | Labate | 0 | -5 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -10 | 127 | 0.0851004 |
| New York 1 | Bishop | Altschuler | -8.7 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -10 | -4.87 | 99 | 0.252083 |
| New York 4 | McCarthy | Becker | 0 | -3 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9.6 | 122 | 0.0939702 |
| New York 11 | Murphy | Grimm | 13.5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6.35 | 46 | 0.8081065 |
| New York 18 | Maloney | Hayworth | 11.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.55 | 67 | 0.6367359 |
| New York 19 | Schreiban | Gibson | 16.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.45 | 68 | 0.6315766 |
| New York 22 | Lamb | Hanna | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 8.6 | 33 | 0.8809085 |
| New York 21 | Owens | Doheny | -13 | 1 | -5 | -5 | -10 | -5.1 | 101 | 0.2421214 |
| New York 24 | Maffei | Buerkle | -3 | -4 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -4.1 | 92 | 0.2869425 |
| New York 25 | Slaughter | Brooks | 0 | -5 | -5 | -10 | -10 | -6 | 105 | 0.2052724 |
| New York 23 | Shinagawa | Reed | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 8.6 | 33 | 0.8809085 |
| New York 27 | Hochul | Collins | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0.6 | 72 | 0.5327934 |
| Nebraska 2 | Ewing | Terry | 9.5 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 11.15 | 2 | 0.9369035 |
| New Hampshire 1 | Shea-Porter | Guinta | -4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1.6 | 70 | 0.58685 |
| New Hampshire 2 | Kuster | Bass | 0 | -3 | -5 | 0 | -5 | -2.6 | 85 | 0.3606937 |
| New Mexico 1 | Grisham | Arnold-Jones | -12 | -5 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -11.2 | 134 | 0.0622513 |
| Nevada 2 | Koepnick | Amodei | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 0.9148996 |
| Nevada 3 | Oceguera | Heck | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 75 | 0.5 |
| Nevada 4 | Horsford | Tarkkanian | 8.5 | -2 | -10 | -10 | -5 | -4.55 | 95 | 0.2662943 |
| North Carolina 2 | Wilkins | Ellmers | 16 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 0.9343142 |
| North Carolina 7 | McIntyre | Rouzer | 19 | 11 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 3.1 | 63 | 0.6646485 |
| North Carolina 8 | Kissell | Hudson | -1.5 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.25 | 53 | 0.7642586 |
| North Carolina 11 | Rogers | Meadows | 0 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8.6 | 33 | 0.8809085 |
| North Carolina 13 | Malone | Holding | 0 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 0.9148996 |
| North Dakota 1 | Gullleson | Cramer | 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 9.3 | 24 | 0.8989426 |
| Ohio 6 | Wilson | Johnson | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 56 | 0.7083681 |
| Ohio 7 | Healey-Abrams | Gibbs | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 6.8 | 42 | 0.8245022 |
| Ohio 16 | Sutton | Renacci | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -0.4 | 77 | 0.4781241 |
| Oklahoma 2 | Wallace | Mullin | 0 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.8 | 49 | 0.7868398 |
| Oregon 1 | Bonamici | Morgan | 0 | -5 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -10 | 127 | 0.0851004 |
| Oregon 5 | Schrader | Thompson | 0 | 0 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9 | 117 | 0.1085264 |
| Pennsylvania 3 | Eaton | Kelly | 0 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9.6 | 18 | 0.9060298 |
| Pennsylvania 4 | Perkinson | Perry | 0 | 6 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -7.8 | 110 | 0.1423511 |
| Pennsylvania 6 | Trivedi | Gerlach | 24 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 9.6 | 18 | 0.9060298 |
| Pennsylvania 7 | Badey | Meehan | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 8.2 | 38 | 0.8696373 |
| Pennsylvania 8 | Boockvar | Fitzpatrick | 0 | -1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2.8 | 65 | 0.6495243 |
| Pennsylvania 12 | Critz | Rothfus | -8 | 6 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -1.6 | 80 | 0.41315 |
| Pennsylvania 11 | Stilp | Barletta | 0 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10.2 | 9 | 0.919092 |
| Pennsylvania 15 | Daugherty | Dent | 0 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9.4 | 22 | 0.9013471 |
| Pennsylvania 18 | Maggi | Murphy | 0 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10.2 | 9 | 0.919092 |
| Pennsylvania 17 | Cartwright | Cummings | 0 | 6 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -7.8 | 110 | 0.1423511 |
| South Carolina 7 | Tinubu | Rice | 0 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 9.2 | 25 | 0.8964958 |
| South Dakota 1 | Varilek | Noem | 1 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 9.1 | 27 | 0.8940062 |
| Tennessee 5 | Cooper | Staats | 0 | -3 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9.6 | 122 | 0.0939702 |
| Rhode Island 1 | Cicilline | Doherty | -11 | -13 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -5.7 | 103 | 0.2171694 |
| Texas 10 | Cadien | McCaul | 0 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10.6 | 6 | 0.9270064 |
| Texas 14 | Lampson | Weber | 0 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 9.6 | 18 | 0.9060298 |
| Texas 23 | Gallego | Canseco | -5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -0.3 | 76 | 0.4835894 |
| Texas 34 | Vela | Bradshaw | 0 | -3 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9.6 | 122 | 0.0939702 |
| Texas 35 | Doggett | Narvaiz | 0 | 0 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9 | 117 | 0.1085264 |
| Utah 4 | Matheson | Love | -17 | 13 | 0 | 0 | -10 | -1.1 | 79 | 0.4400386 |
| Virginia 2 | Hirschbiel | Rigell | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 56 | 0.7083681 |
| Virginia 11 | Connolly | Perkins | 0 | -2 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9.4 | 121 | 0.0986529 |
| Washington 1 | Delbene | Kostar | 4 | -3 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -3.2 | 88 | 0.3303674 |
| Washington 6 | Kilmer | Driscoll | 0 | -5 | -10 | -15 | -15 | -9 | 117 | 0.1085264 |
| Washington 2 | Larsen | Matthews | 0 | 0 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9 | 117 | 0.1085264 |
| Washington 3 | Haugen | Buetler | 0 | -1 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8.8 | 30 | 0.8862785 |
| Washington 10 | Heck | Muri | 0 | -5 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -10 | 127 | 0.0851004 |
| West Virginia 1 | Thorn | McKinley | 0 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10.8 | 5 | 0.9307345 |
| West Virginia 3 | Rahall | Snuffer | -28 | 6 | -10 | -10 | -15 | -8.6 | 115 | 0.1190915 |
| Wisconsin 3 | Kind | Boland | 0 | -4 | -15 | -15 | -15 | -9.8 | 125 | 0.0894536 |
| Wisconsin 7 | Kreitlow | Duffy | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 64 | 0.6596352 |
| Wisconsin 8 | Wall | Ribble | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3.4 | 61 | 0.6795103 |
