Government Incentives Lead to Corruption, Waste, Irresponsibility, and Failure

It comes as no surprise every government incentive plan leads corruption, waste, and irresponsibility which, in turn, inevitably leads to failure. This site and conservative sites alike point to failures of many government incentive plans such as welfare. Welfare includes subsidies for food, housing, unemployment, and healthcare. These plans simply move money from wealthy citizens to poor citizens and do not to provide any incentives for the poor to find work or education to get a better paying job. The goal of any government incentive plan should be to maximize economic growth. And that means everyone should be responsible and contribute to the system and not just hold the top 10% of all earners accountable. On paper wealth distribution sounds great (especially to the poor), but this is socialism and it has failed time and time again throughout history simply because government incentives are misguided and lead to a lazy populous. Our educational system is another example of how the wrong types of incentives lead to corruption and failure. Each week there is news of a school system “cooking” the books on test scores. Administrators, teachers, and other officials are guilty of this because it could save their jobs as well as lead to more funding for the school district. The first failure here is that the government (local, state, and federal) place too much of an emphasis on a plethora of test scores – it is simply paralysis by over analysis. The second failure is to not have the tests given and scored by neutral observers. It seems every week we can see another example of government incentives gone awry. Let’s examine the root cause of the Veterans Administration (VA) healthcare scandal. An inquiry into the situation found a majority of VA hospitals and clinics were negligent in caring for our veterans. The wait time for an appointment was, on average, over six months and worse yet; some veterans never got an appointment. The VA had a goal of having veteran appointments set in 2 weeks or less. In fact, the VA provided bonuses based on meeting this requirement. The result, many VA facilities were “cooking” the appointment books to meet the VA appointment standards and receive falsified bonuses. Obviously, one correction from the inquire is to no longer provide bonuses based on the wait time system since this incentive lead directly to corruption, waste, and a complete failure of the system which resulted in the deaths of the very people who have protected our freedoms. The Burgdahl scandal is yet another example of government incentives gone awry. The Obama administration traded the top 5 Taliban enemy combatants for a very “bad” soldier who disserted and collaborated with the enemy. Hence, terrorist organizations now know this administration will negotiate with them to trade prisoners. Hence, in the future, terrorist organizations now understand the advantages of taking hostages. Therefore, Obama has provided our enemies with an incentive to attack and capture Americans.

2014 Election Polls and Models (6/6/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models. Governor Races State Democrat Republican Poll Rank Probability Gain Incumbent Arkansas Ross Hutchinson 7.2 9 0.7291517 1 Rep Gain -1 California Brown Kashkari 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Connecticut Malloy Foley 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Colorado Hickenlooper -10 32 0.1983392 -1 Dem Hold -1 Hawaii Abercrombie Aiona 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Illinois Quinn Rauner 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Maryland O'Malley 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Massacusetts Coakley Baker -9 31 0.2227879 -1 Dem Hold -1 Minnesota Dayton 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 New Hampshire Hassan -22 35 0.0311152 -1 Dem Hold -1 New York Cuomo Astorino -29 36 0.0069867 -1 Dem Hold -1 Oregon Kitzhaber Richardson -13 33 0.1352658 -1 Dem Hold -1 Rhode Island Chafee 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Vermont Shumlin 0 21 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Arizona 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Alabama Griffith Bentley 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Alaska Mallott Parnell 10 6 0.8016608 1 Rep Hold 1 Florida Crist Scott -1.5 30 0.4494167 -1 Dem Gain 1 Georgia Carter Deal 2 11 0.5673037 1 Rep Hold 1 Idaho Balukoff Otter 14 3 0.8823065 1 Rep Hold 1 Iowa Hatch Branstad 9 7 0.7772121 1 Rep Hold 1 Kansas Brownback 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Maine Michaud LePage -1 29 0.4662274 -1 Dem Gain 1 Michigan Schauer Snyder 10.2 5 0.8063488 1 Rep Hold 1 Nebraska Hassebrook Ricketts 7 10 0.7235091 1 Rep Hold 1 Nevada Sandoval 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 New Mexico King Martinez 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Oklahoma Dorman Fallin 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 Ohio Fitzgerald Kasich 11 4 0.8244158 1 Rep Hold 1 Pennsylvania Wolf Corbett -21.5 34 0.0342068 -1 Dem Gain 1 South Carolina Sheheen Haley 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 South Dakota Wismer Daugarrd 33 1 0.9974208 1 Rep Hold 1 Tennessee Haslam 30 2 0.9945001 1 Rep Hold 1 Texas Davis Abbott 9 7 0.7772121 1 Rep Hold 1 Wisconis Walker 2 11 0.5673037 1 Rep Hold 1 Wyoming Mead 1 13 0.5337726 1 Rep Hold 1 0 11.7985 0.5295349 4 -4 8 Senate Races State Democrat Republican Poll Rank Probability Gain Incumbent Alabama Unopposed Sessions 50 1 0.9999652 1 Rep Hold 1 Alaska Begich Sullivan -6 30 0.3165546 -1 Dem Hold -1 Arkansas Pryor Cotton -1.5 26 0.4525035 -1 Dem Hold -1 Delaware Coons 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Georgia Nunn Purdue -0.5 25 0.4841344 -1 Dem Gain 1 Hawaii Schatz Hanabusa -4 29 0.3751527 -1 Dem Hold -1 Illinois Durbin Oberweis 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Massachusetts Markey 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Maine Collins 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Michigan Peters Land -3 27 0.4056778 -1 Dem Hold -1 Minnesota Franken -15 34 0.1163588 -1 Dem Hold -1 Mississippi Childers Cochran 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Gain 1 Kentucky Grimes McConnell 3 16 0.5943222 1 Rep Hold 1 Idaho Mitchell Risch 25 1 0.9766483 1 Rep Hold 1 Kansas Roberts 1 7 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Nebraska Domina Sasse 17 4 0.9118933 1 Rep Hold 1 Colorado Udall Gardner -3 26 0.4056778 -1 Dem Hold -1 Louisiana Landrieu Cassidy 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Gain -1 New Jersey Booker 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 New Mexico Udall Weh 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Oklahoma Coburn 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Oklahoma Inhofe 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Montana Walsh Daines 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Rhode Island Reed 0 17 0.5 -1 Dem Hold -1 Tennessee Alexander 25 2 0.9766483 1 Rep Hold 1 Texas Alameel Cornyn 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 South Carolina Scott 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 South Carolina Graham 1 8 0.5317061 1 Rep Hold 1 Virginia Warner -15 34 0.1163588 -1 Dem Hold -1 Oregon Merkley Wehby -12 33 0.1698621 -1 Dem Hold -1 West Virginia Tennant Capito 12 6 0.8301379 1 Rep Gain -1 New Hampshire Shaheen Brown -7 32 0.288793 -1 Dem Hold -1 Wyoming Enzi -15.5 36 0.1087567 -1 Dem Gain 1 South Dakota Weiland Rounds 14 5 0.8673236 1 Rep Gain -1 North Carolina Hagan Tillis 0.5 16 0.5158656 1 Rep Gain -1 Iowa Braley Ernst -6 30 0.3165546 -1 Dem Hold -1 0 12.5693 0.5085786 -4 2 -6 House Races State Democrat Republican Poll PVI Cook Sabato Election Projection AVE Rank Probability Arkansas 2 Hays Hill 0 8 5 5 5 4.6 25 0.7796312 Arkansas 4 0 15 10 10 15 10 2 0.9531284 Arizona 1 Kirkpatrick 0 4 0 0 -5 -0.2 38 0.4866302 Arizona 2 Barber 0 3 0 0 -5 -0.4 41 0.4732753 Arizona 9 Sinema 0 1 -5 -5 -10 -3.8 59 0.2621047 California 3 Garamendi Logue 0 -1 -10 -15 -15 -8.2 74 0.0846745 California 7 Bera Ose 0 0 0 -5 -5 -2 51 0.3687391 California 9 McNerney Amador 0 -6 -10 -15 -15 -9.2 77 0.0615494 California 10 Eggman Denham 0 1 10 10 15 7.2 17 0.8862264 California 16 Costa 0 -7 -10 -15 -15 -9.4 78 0.0575803 California 21 Renteria Valadao 0 -2 5 5 5 2.6 35 0.6684921 California 25 0 3 10 5 10 5.6 21 0.8260179 California 24 Capps 0 -4 -10 -5 15 -0.8 42 0.4466705 California 26 Brownley Gorell 0 -4 -5 -10 -10 -5.8 66 0.1655091 California 31 Aguilar Chabot 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 62 0.2513047 California 36 Ruiz Ruiz 0 1 0 -5 -5 -1.8 50 0.3814498 California 52 Peters DiMaio 0 -2 0 0 5 0.6 37 0.5400495 Colorado 6 Romanoff Coffman 0 -1 0 0 -5 -1.2 49 0.4203036 Connecticut 5 Esty 0 -3 -10 -10 -15 -7.6 69 0.1013777 Florida 2 Graham Southerland 0 6 5 5 5 4.2 26 0.7592553 Florida 26 Garcia 0 1 0 0 -5 -0.8 42 0.4466705 Florida 10 Demings Webster 0 6 5 15 15 8.2 11 0.9153255 Florida 13 Jolly 0 1 15 15 15 9.2 5 0.9384506 Florida 18 Murphy 0 3 0 -5 -5 -1.4 49 0.4072455 Hawaii 2 0 -21 -10 -5 -15 -10.2 79 0.0436798 Georgia 12 Barrow Allen 0 14 -5 -5 -5 -0.2 38 0.4866302 Illinois 8 Duckworth 0 -8 -10 -5 -15 -7.6 69 0.1013777 Illinois 10 Schneider Dold 0 -8 0 -5 -5 -3.6 57 0.2731377 Illinois 11 Foster 0 -8 -10 -10 -15 -8.6 75 0.0747446 Illinois 12 Enyart Bost 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 54 0.3075552 Illinois 13 Callis Davis 0 0 5 5 5 3 34 0.6924448 Illinois 17 Bustos Schilling 0 -7 -5 -5 -5 -4.4 63 0.2304309 Indiana 2 Bock Walorski 0 6 5 5 5 4.2 26 0.7592553 Iowa 1 Murphy Blum 0 -5 -10 -10 -15 -8 72 0.089996 Iowa 3 Appel 0 0 0 0 -5 -1 46 0.43345 Iowa 4 Mowrer King 0 5 10 15 15 9 7 0.9342709 Kentucky 6 Barr 0 9 10 -5 -15 -0.2 38 0.4866302 Maine 2 0 -2 -5 -5 -10 -4.4 63 0.2304309 Massachusetts 6 Tierney Tisei 0 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3.8 59 0.2621047 Michigan 8 0 2 5 5 5 3.4 31 0.7156039 Michigan 1 Cannon Benishek 0 5 5 5 5 4 28 0.7486953 Michigan 3 Amash 0 4 10 15 15 8.8 8 0.9298745 Michigan 7 Byrnes Walberg 0 3 5 5 5 3.6 30 0.7268623 Michigan 11 Bentivolio 0 4 10 10 15 7.8 13 0.9044378 Minnesota 1 Walz 0 1 -10 -15 -15 -7.8 71 0.0955622 Minnesota 2 Kline 0 2 10 10 15 7.4 16 0.8925532 Minnesota 8 Nolan 0 -1 -5 -5 -5 -3.2 55 0.2958716 Minnesota 7 Peterson 0 6 -10 -10 -10 -4.8 65 0.2105635 Montana 1 Lewis Zinke 0 7 10 10 15 8.4 10 0.9204076 New Jersey 3 Belgard McArthur 0 1 0 0 -5 -0.8 42 0.4466705 New Jersey 2 Hughes LoBiondo 0 -1 10 10 15 6.8 18 0.8727865 New York 1 Bishop 0 2 -5 -5 -5 -2.6 52 0.3315079 New York 11 Recchia Grimm 0 2 -5 -5 -5 -2.6 52 0.3315079 New York 18 Maloney 0 0 -5 -10 -15 -6 67 0.1573077 New York 19 Eldridge Gibson 0 -1 5 0 5 1.8 36 0.6185502 New York 21 0 0 0 0 -5 -1 46 0.43345 New York 24 Maffei 0 -5 -10 -10 -15 -8 72 0.089996 New York 23 Robertson Reed 0 3 15 5 5 5.6 21 0.8260179 New York 27 Hochul Collins 0 8 0 15 15 7.6 15 0.8986223 Nebraska 2 Sullivan Terry 0 4 15 5 15 7.8 13 0.9044378 New Hampshire 1 Shea-Porter Guinta 0 1 0 0 -5 -0.8 42 0.4466705 New Hampshire 2 Kuster 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3.6 57 0.2731377 New Mexico 2 Lara Pearce 0 5 10 10 15 8 12 0.910004 Nevada 2 Koepnick Amodei 0 5 15 15 15 10 2 0.9531284 Nevada 3 Heck 0 0 5 10 5 4 28 0.7486953 Nevada 4 Horsford 0 -4 0 -10 -5 -3.8 59 0.2621047 North Carolina 2 Ellmers 0 10 10 15 15 10 2 0.9531284 North Carolina 7 Barfield Rouzer 0 12 10 15 15 10.4 1 0.9593343 Ohio 6 Johnson 0 8 10 10 15 8.6 9 0.9252554 Ohio 14 Wager Joyce 0 4 10 10 10 6.8 18 0.8727865 Oregon 5 Schrader 0 0 -10 -10 -15 -7 68 0.1203614 Pennsylvania 6 Trivedi Costello 13 2 5 5 10 5.7 20 0.8302883 Pennsylvania 8 Strouse Fitzpatrick 0 1 5 5 5 3.2 33 0.7041284 Texas 23 Gallego Hurd 0 3 -5 -5 -10 -3.4 56 0.2843961 Utah 4 Owens Love 0 16 10 10 10 9.2 5 0.9384506 Virginia 10 Foust Comstock 0 2 5 5 5 3.4 31 0.7156039 Washington 1 Delbene 0 -4 -10 -15 -15 -8.8 76 0.0701255 West Virginia 2 Mooney Casey 0 11 5 5 5 5.2 23 0.8082612 West Virginia 3 Rahall Jenkins 0 14 0 5 5 4.8 24 0.7894365 Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 26; Democrats 24 (including 2 Independents) Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents) House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 232; Democrats 205 Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls: Governor Races: Republicans 25; Democrats 25 (including 2 Independents) Senate Races: Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents) House Races: Republicans 231; Democrats 206

Where is the Media and Liberal Outrage!

Thus far liberal and media outrage over NSA expansion, deficit spending, targeting political groups (IRS, DOJ, and EPA), Benghazi, Killing American citizens without due process, expanding the war in Afghanistan, expanding the drone war, outing of CIA agents, treatment to veterans, the BP oil spill, and Fast and Furious has been little to nonexistent. But during the Bush years there was much outrage and bad press over the Patriot act, the Iraq War, the treatment of veterans, the outing of a CIA agent – Valarie Plame, the killing of innocent civilians, Katrina, and the use of enhanced interrogation techniques. Republicans are continuously ridiculed over proposed voter ID laws which liberals claim target minorities. Yet, Obama does not face the same scrutiny despite expanding Bush policies or for being completely inept. • The Bush administration may have passed the Patriot Act, but Obama has expanded the use of NSA spying which even includes the leaders of our allies. • The Bush administration may have gone to war in Iraq but ultimately a troop surge won the war. However, everyday a body count was revealed on media outlets. The Obama administration had a troop surge in Afghanistan that failed and despite the fact that 75% of all Afghan War casualties occurred under Obama’s watch there are no more body counts on our media outlets. • Apparently is not okay for people to present a valid ID to vote in an election to prevent fraud, but it is alright to break the law to prevent conservative nonprofits from participating in the election process. • Apparently it is okay to cover up a terrorist attack against a U.S. embassy and fail to hold those responsible for committing this act of violence. • Apparently it is okay for Obama to push for gun control and violate the second amendment rights of Americans while his administration lost track of guns they gave to drug cartels that were used to kill hundreds of Mexicans and a U.S. border agent. • Apparently it is okay for the U.S. to kill enemy combatants and U.S. citizens, but it is not acceptable to use enhanced interrogation techniques on enemy combatants. • Apparently someone must go to jail in the Bush administration for outing a Virginia based desk jokey CIA agent, but it is acceptable to out the top CIA agent in Afghanistan. • The treatment of wounded veterans under the Bush administration received much scrutiny, yet, despite double the budget wait times and care has gotten worse under Obama but no one seems to care. • While Obama caved to the EPA and did nothing to mitigate the BP oil spill, yet, this disaster failed to claim the same bad press as the failed response to Hurricane Katrina. • The media constantly covered stories of civilian deaths during the Iraq war and from drone use. Despite Obama tripling drone attacks and escalated the war in Afghanistan, the media stories of civilian deaths have stopped. • And, finally, deficit spending during the Bush years was seen as bad however, despite spending more money than all previous Presidents combined Obama fails to see the same scrutiny.