Election Polls and Models (6/8/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 61% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 239; Democrats 196;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 191

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	12	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	12	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	4	9	0.6590993	5.931893658
Arkansas		6	0	12	0.5	2
California	55		-16.8	47	0.0425324	2.254217513
Colorado	9		-1.7	32	0.4308335	3.015834241
Connecticut	7		-12	45	0.1093451	0.546725388
DC	3		0	12	0.5	0.5
Florida	0	29	-0.2	31	0.4918221	13.27919758
Georgia		16	10	3	0.8473221	11.86250877
Hawaii	4		0	12	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	12	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	12	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	4	0.8218697	7.39682742
Iowa	6		-2.6	33	0.3949255	1.579702126
Kansas		6	0	12	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	12	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	12	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-20	48	0.0201807	0.181626356
Maine	4		-8	41	0.2061045	0.412209054
Maryland	10		0	12	0.5	4
Michigan	16		-7.5	40	0.2210174	3.094243943
Minnesota	10		-10	44	0.1526779	1.221423561
Mississippi		6	0	12	0.5	2
Missouri		10	1	11	0.5408207	4.326565659
Montana		3	7	5	0.7634705	0.763470521
Nebraska		5	13	2	0.9086553	2.725965991
Nevada	6		-6	38	0.2692743	1.077097184
New Hampshire	4		-6.4	39	0.2559089	0.511817756
New Jersey	14		-9	43	0.1781303	2.137563439
New Mexico	5		-12.3	46	0.103696	0.311088116
New York	29		-24.2	49	0.0065592	0.177099062
North Carolina	15	0	2.5	10	0.6011226	7.814593687
North Dakota		3	0	12	0.5	0.5
Ohio	18		-3.8	35	0.348451	5.575215712
Oklahoma		7	35	1	0.9998331	4.999165514
Oregon	7		-4	36	0.3409007	1.704503524
Pennsylvania	20		-8.5	42	0.1918052	3.452494395
Rhode Island	4		0	12	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	12	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	12	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	7	5	0.7634705	6.871234686
Texas		38	7	5	0.7634705	27.48493874
Utah		6	0	12	0.5	2
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0007426	0.000742631
Virginia	13		-2.7	34	0.3909844	4.300828783
Washington	12		0	12	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	12	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-4.7	37	0.3149892	2.519913552
Wyoming		3	6	8	0.7307257	0.730725704
			0
Total	315	220	9.75595		0.4474148	0.399451573
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	4	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.9923343				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	4	0.5				-1
Louisiana		Jindal	0	4	0.5				1
Mississippi		Barbour	0	4	0.5				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11	14	0.0201111				-1
Montana	Schweitzer		0	4	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	-2	13	0.354577				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7.3	2	0.91331	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	4	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	4	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	4	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	3	0.879988	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin		0	4	0.5				-1
			0
			5.36204		0.5471657
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	10.8	3	0.8656025			1
California	Feinstein		0	10	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	24	0.3677207			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6	26	0.2694899			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.0202871			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.9842322			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.3	9	0.5122527			1
Maine	Pingree	Summers	-3	23	0.3793538	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-14	29	0.0758577			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi		Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	3.5	7.5	0.6399685	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin		0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2.5	6	0.6010176	Gain		-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.9241423	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	5.4	5	0.7098412			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-32	33	0.0005254			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11	28	0.130015			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-4.5	25	0.3224827			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	10	0.5			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-8.3	27	0.1977015			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-14.6	30	0.0674658			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.5	22	0.4795845			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	31	0.0622825			-1
West Virginia	Manchin		0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	7.6	4	0.78177	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5407775			1
			0
			9.76632		0.4524961
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8869765
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	10	0.9252353
Arkansas 4	Ross		0	8	10	10	10	7.6	38	0.8633093
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4200493
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	10	0.9252353
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	80	0.4770146
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	89	0.3327403
California 3	Garamendi		0	-1	-5	-10	-10	-5.2	102	0.2268015
California 7		Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	80	0.4770146
California 9	McNerney		0	-2	-5	-5	-10	-4.4	99	0.2629992
California 10		Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	56	0.7178541
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1431022
California 21			0	3	5	5	5	3.6	61	0.6980605
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9653077
California 24	Capps		0	-3	-10	-5	-10	-5.6	105	0.2098131
California 26			0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	78	0.5229854
California 31		Miller	0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	86	0.3647138
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	38	0.8633093
California 41			0	-3	-5	-5	-10	-4.6	100	0.2536812
California 47			0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	107	0.1935969
California 52		Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	77	0.5458946
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	58	0.7080354
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9292218
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6244021
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.7	113	0.1335597
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8364602
Florida 9			0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	87	0.3539377
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	58	0.7080354
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8869765
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	33	0.8813536
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	36	0.8755359
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6244021
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	15	0.9210798
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-5	-5	-3	89	0.3327403
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	51	0.7644216
Illinois 8		Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	109	0.1565264
Illinois 10		Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	100	0.2536812
Illinois 11		Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	93	0.3223338
Illinois 12	Costello		0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	82	0.4200493
Illinois 13		Johnson	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6567226
Illinois 17		Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	93	0.3223338
Indiana 2	Donnelly		0	7	5	5	5	4.4	53	0.7370008
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8869765
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1244641
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1304783
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6244021
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	58	0.7080354
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-10	-5	-15	-4.2	98	0.2724891
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	112	0.1366907
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9435527
Maryland 6		Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2182121
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0747647
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-5	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2182121
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	10	0.9252353
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	10	4.6	52	0.7463188
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	33	0.8813536
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	22	0.9075636
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	33	0.8813536
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1304783
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8502861
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	36	0.8755359
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9330429
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4088161
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-10	-15	-7	109	0.1565264
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	43	0.8434736
New Jersey 3		Runyan	0	1	5	10	5	4.2	54	0.7275109
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	19	0.9122473
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0632975
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	16	0.9167516
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0564473
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	26	0.8976461
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0747647
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	89	0.3327403
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0832484
New York 11		Grimm	0	5	5	10	10	6	47	0.8064031
New York 18		Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	75	0.5799507
New York 19		Gibson	0	-1	0	5	5	1.8	72	0.6023426
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	10	5.6	49	0.7901869
New York 21	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	88	0.3432774
New York 24		Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	97	0.2919646
New York 25	Slaughter		0	5	-5	-5	-10	-3	89	0.3327403
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	28	0.8924066
New York 27	Hochul		0	7	0	5	5	3.4	63	0.6879354
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9292218
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	74	0.5911839
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4088161
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1244641
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	10	0.9252353
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	76	0.557297
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	108	0.178169
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	19	0.9122473
North Carolina 7	McIntyre		0	11	0	5	5	4.2	54	0.7275109
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	5	5.4	50	0.7817879
North Carolina 11	Shuler		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	28	0.8924066
North Carolina 13	Miller		0	10	10	15	15	10	10	0.9252353
North Dakota 1		Berg	0	10	10	10	15	9	25	0.9026975
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	56	0.7178541
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8364602
Ohio 16		Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	72	0.6023426
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	48	0.7983926
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0747647
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	122	0.0973025
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	16	0.9167516
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1304783
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8502861
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8502861
Pennsylvania 8		Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6567226
Pennsylvania 12	Critz		0	6	0	0	-5	0.2	79	0.5114975
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9292218
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	19	0.9122473
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	22	0.9075636
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1304783
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	22	0.9075636
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9435527
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0832484
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	95	0.3019395
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9367025
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	16	0.9167516
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	68	0.6244021
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0832484
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	122	0.0973025
Utah 4	Matheson		0	13	0	0	5	3.6	61	0.6980605
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	10	10	10	7	43	0.8434736
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	121	0.1130235
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3019395
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	122	0.0973025
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1244641
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	26	0.8976461
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	122	0.0973025
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9402044
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	106	0.2016074
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	129	0.0789202
Wisconsin 7		Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	65	0.6672597
Wisconsin 8		Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	63	0.6879354