Thursday, August 23, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (8/24/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 55.3% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 241; Democrats 194;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

22

6

0.8712351

6.098645851

Alaska

3

25

4

0.9008913

0.900891255

Arizona

11

12

14

0.7315773

6.584195738

Arkansas

6

24

5

0.8916184

3.566473514

California

55

-16

42

0.205125

10.87162398

Colorado

9

-1

26

0.4794772

3.356340057

Connecticut

7

-8

37

0.3402698

1.701348986

Delaware

3

-20

45

0.1516653

0.151665301

DC

3

-75

51

5.671E-05

5.67075E-05

Florida

0

29

-1

26

0.4794772

12.94588308

Georgia

16

8

17

0.6597302

9.236222839

Hawaii

4

-27

49

0.0823285

0.164656957

Idaho

4

34

2

0.959927

1.919853969

Illinois

20

-21

46

0.1398968

2.518142253

Indiana

11

16

10

0.794875

7.153875174

Iowa

6

-1

26

0.4794772

1.917908604

Kansas

6

17

8

0.8091912

3.236764797

Kentucky

8

8

17

0.6597302

3.958381217

Louisiana

8

16

10

0.794875

4.769250116

Massachusetts

11

-16

42

0.205125

1.846124826

Maine

4

-14

41

0.2356018

0.471203596

Maryland

10

-23

47

0.118263

0.946103782

Michigan

16

-7.7

36

0.3459466

4.843252407

Minnesota

10

-6

33

0.3787387

3.029909323

Mississippi

6

18

7

0.8228772

3.291508709

Missouri

10

6.3

21

0.6271199

5.016959333

Montana

3

9

16

0.6783869

0.678386905

Nebraska

5

14

12

0.7643982

2.293194606

Nevada

6

-5

32

0.3984623

1.593849117

New Hampshire

4

-3.5

30

0.428525

0.857050099

New Jersey

14

-10

39

0.3033958

3.640749461

New Mexico

5

-8

37

0.3402698

1.020809392

New York

29

-25.5

48

0.0946961

2.556793421

North Carolina

15

0

1.8

24

0.5369046

6.979760371

North Dakota

3

14

12

0.7643982

0.764398202

Ohio

18

-1.8

29

0.4630954

7.409525697

Oklahoma

7

29

3

0.9322173

4.661086302

Oregon

7

-6

33

0.3787387

1.893693327

Pennsylvania

20

-6.5

35

0.3689905

6.641829683

Rhode Island

4

-17

44

0.1908088

0.381617601

South Carolina

9

10

15

0.6966042

4.876229481

South Dakota

3

6

22

0.6212613

0.621261335

Tennessee

11

7

19

0.640674

5.766066347

Texas

38

7

19

0.640674

23.06426539

Utah

6

42

1

0.9846742

3.938696758

Vermont

3

-31

50

0.0553067

0.055306738

Virginia

13

-0.7

25

0.4856308

5.34193849

Washington

12

-13

40

0.2517298

2.517298021

West Virginia

5

17

8

0.8091912

2.427573598

Wisconsin

10

-3.5

30

0.428525

3.428200394

Wyoming

3

6

22

0.6212613

0.621261335

0

Total

318

220

19.4304

0.510665

0.447190999

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.8753351

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

5

0.5

-1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-11.3

12

0.1583324

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Cilley

Lamontagne

2

4

0.5703351

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

6

3

0.702527

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9990372

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

5

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-0.7

11

0.4752696

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

0

5

0.5

-1

0

11.2849

0.5650697

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

6.7

2

0.7581489

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-17.5

31

0.0336773

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

-5.5

23

0.2826717

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

9

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-2.5

22

0.3969196

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-12

28

0.1048525

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

1

7

0.5416262

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-0.1

19

0.4958299

Gain

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

9

0.5

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-11.5

27

0.1146602

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-25

32

0.0044838

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

9

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

5

7.5

0.6993936

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

8

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

-1.5

20

0.4377024

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

1

0.9283265

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

3.7

6

0.6505354

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-35

33

0.0001268

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11.3

26

0.1187606

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-6.8

24

0.2385998

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

3

0.6993936

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-7.3

25

0.222708

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-13.6

30

0.0775672

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

9

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

9

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

0

9

0.5

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

0

9

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

9

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.5

20

0.4791585

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-13.5

29

0.0790966

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

0

9

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

4

5

0.6620724

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

7

0.5416262

1

0

9.5665

0.4111496

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8819579

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9208059

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9121466

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

-3

3

0

-5

-5

-1.7

85

0.4052476

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9208059

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

13

3

-10

-5

-10

-3.1

88

0.3309617

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

87

0.3360915

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-10

-10

-7.7

110

0.1387185

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

81

0.4775034

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

104

0.2273592

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7136928

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

109

0.1482937

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

46

0.8240573

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9622362

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

92

0.3058022

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

78

0.5224966

California 31

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

30

0.887443

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

38

0.8581377

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

92

0.3058022

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

106

0.1986905

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

75

0.5449217

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.704019

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9248855

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6218385

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-3

-2

-10

-5

-5

-4.7

101

0.2536841

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

0

4

5

10

10

5.8

48

0.7933493

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

0

-3

-10

-5

-10

-5.6

105

0.2147968

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

0

4

15

15

5

7.8

37

0.8643775

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8819579

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

35

0.8762863

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

0

5

10

5

5

5

52

0.7596747

Florida 18

Murphy

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6218385

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

16

0.9165606

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

98

0.2863072

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

10

5

5

5

5

52

0.7596747

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.1617333

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

100

0.2582222

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

89

0.3258635

Illinois 12

Harriman

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

5

0.6

76

0.5337225

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6535578

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

89

0.3258635

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

54

0.7325771

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

10

15

7.4

40

0.8517063

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

114

0.1295733

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

111

0.1356225

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6218385

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.704019

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.7

96

0.3008735

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-12

-3

-10

-10

-15

-8.8

117

0.1072564

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

3

0.9396168

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

107

0.1759427

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0791941

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-7

0

-5

-5

-3.4

91

0.315765

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9208059

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

0

5

5

2.6

66

0.6430911

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

35

0.8762863

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

25

0.9028

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

0

1

5

5

15

5.2

51

0.7683631

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

117

0.1072564

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8450828

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

27

0.8978618

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9121466

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

83

0.4107243

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

114

0.1295733

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

44

0.8382667

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

5

4.4

54

0.7325771

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9288029

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0674384

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9121466

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0603832

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

28

0.8927436

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0791941

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

4

0

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

86

0.3569089

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0878534

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

15

5

5

10

10

7.5

39

0.854946

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

3

2

0

0

5

1.7

72

0.5947524

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

17

-1

0

0

5

2.5

67

0.6378164

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

10

5

15

6.6

46

0.8240573

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-12

1

-5

-5

-5

-4

98

0.2863072

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

97

0.295981

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

103

0.2403253

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

30

0.887443

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

7

0

0

-5

0.4

78

0.5224966

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9248855

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

0

0

5

0.6

76

0.5337225

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

83

0.4107243

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

119

0.1021382

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9208059

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

74

0.5560853

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

6

-2

-10

-10

-5

-4.8

102

0.2491883

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

22

0.9075607

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

5

-5

4.1

56

0.7184727

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

0

12

5

5

5

5.4

50

0.7768736

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

30

0.887443

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

11

0.9208059

North Dakota 1

Heitkamp

Berg

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

24

0.9052023

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7136928

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8312581

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

5

1.6

73

0.5892757

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

48

0.7933493

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0791941

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1021382

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9121466

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1356225

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8450828

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8450828

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6535578

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-8

6

0

0

-5

-0.6

82

0.4662775

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9248855

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

22

0.9075607

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

25

0.9028

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1356225

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9248855

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

1

10

15

15

15

11.1

2

0.941287

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0878534

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

92

0.3058022

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9325616

Texas 14

Lampson

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9121466

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

68

0.6218385

Texas 34

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0878534

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1021382

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-17

13

0

0

-5

-0.1

80

0.4943731

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7136928

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

124

0.0924393

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

92

0.3058022

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1021382

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1021382

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

28

0.8927436

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0791941

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

4

0.9361649

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

116

0.112557

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0834394

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

63

0.6639085

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

62

0.684235

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