Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Election Polls and Models (11/4/14–Final)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

8

14

0.7116084

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

-18

35

0.104612

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

-1.3

24

0.4638696

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

-0.5

21

0.4860875

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

-13

33

0.1822309

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

-0.8

22

0.477747

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-12

32

0.2012585

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

3.4

17

0.5937446

1

Rep Gain

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-9

30

0.2650508

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-5

27

0.3636174

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-24

36

0.0470389

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-8

29

0.2883916

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Raimondo

Fung

-6

28

0.3377662

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-16

34

0.1321727

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Ducey

6

15

0.6622338

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

32

1

0.9872044

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Walker

Parnell

-3

26

0.4171134

-1

Dem Gain

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-1

23

0.4721919

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

4.6

16

0.6258575

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

15

11

0.852316

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

19

6

0.9074912

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-2.3

25

0.436263

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

1.4

20

0.5389011

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

2.5

18

0.5692256

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

13

12

0.8177691

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

25

5

0.9594231

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

10

13

0.7572901

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

17

8

0.8821771

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

18

7

0.895388

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-11

31

0.2214298

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

16

10

0.8678273

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

29

2

0.9784673

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

28

3

0.9746088

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

17

8

0.8821771

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

2.2

19

0.560988

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

26

4

0.9651451

1

Rep Hold

1

0

14.3346

0.5764308

4

-2

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9897637

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

2.4

21

0.5442883

1

Rep Gain

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

7.1

17

0.6289581

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

Wade

-18

33

0.2020488

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

3.2

19

0.5589567

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-38

36

0.0390893

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-12

29

0.2890313

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Herr

-21

34

0.1651823

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

30

5

0.9178179

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-11

27

0.3050728

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-9

26

0.3382797

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

15

14

0.7565573

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

7.2

30

0.6307084

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

30

4

0.9178179

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Orman

Roberts

-0.7

22

0.4870582

-1

Dem Gain

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

25

7

0.8767281

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

2.5

19

0.5461256

1

Rep Gain

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

4.8

18

0.5880325

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-15

31

0.2434427

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-13

30

0.2733979

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

33

3

0.9369417

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

33

3

0.9369417

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

18

10

0.7979512

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-33

35

0.0630583

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

17

11

0.784644

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

21

8

0.8348177

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

21

8

0.8348177

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

17

11

0.784644

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-11

27

0.3050728

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-17

32

0.215356

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

17

11

0.784644

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-0.9

25

0.4833624

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

46

2

0.9835034

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

10

15

0.6785021

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-0.7

23

0.4870582

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

1.4

22

0.52587

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

21.5743

0.5770943

8

7

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

-4

8

0

5

5

3.2

37

0.6856783

Arkansas 4

Witt

Westerman

9

15

5

5

10

7.9

22

0.883757

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Tobin

6

4

0

5

-5

1.4

44

0.5837871

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-5

3

0

-5

-5

-1.9

55

0.386995

Arizona 9

Sinema

Rogers

0

1

-5

-10

-10

-4.8

66

0.2340862

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

-6

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

73

0.0917587

California 7

Bera

Ose

-4

0

0

5

5

1.6

43

0.5955397

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-15

-15

-15

-10.2

78

0.0615862

California 10

Eggman

Denham

10

1

15

10

15

9.2

13

0.917805

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-15

-15

-15

-10.4

79

0.057996

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

15

1

15

10

10

8.7

17

0.9057264

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

24

0.8746475

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-10

-10

15

-1.8

53

0.3927933

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

0

-5

-5

-2.8

60

0.336081

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

-4

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

65

0.2530248

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-5

-5

-1.8

53

0.3927933

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

-1

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.5

59

0.3527741

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

1

-1

5

5

5

2.9

39

0.6694142

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

-16

-3

-10

-10

-15

-9.2

75

0.082195

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0.5

6

5

5

5

4.25

35

0.7396708

Florida 26

Garcia

Cubelo

-1

1

0

5

5

2.1

41

0.624525

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

18

0.8923866

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

13

0.917805

Florida 18

Murphy

Domino

-22

3

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

72

0.096839

Hawaii 1

Takai

Djou

1

-15

-5

-5

-5

-5.9

68

0.1862752

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

3

14

0

-5

-5

1.1

45

0.56602

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

69

0.1253525

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

-4

-5

0

5

5

0.6

49

0.5361274

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

-3

-10

-10

-10

-15

-9.3

76

0.0799258

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

5

2

-5

0

5

0.9

46

0.5540984

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

17

17

10

10

10

11.1

3

0.953289

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

-9

-11

-5

-10

-10

-8.1

71

0.1104371

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

15

10

10

8.2

18

0.8923866

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

0.5

-5

0

-5

-5

-2.95

61

0.3278517

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

0

0

0

5

5

2

42

0.6187781

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

11

5

15

10

15

10.1

6

0.9365548

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

47

0.5481186

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

0

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.4

62

0.3036733

Massachusetts 6

Moulton

Tisei

-1

-4

-5

-10

-5

-4.9

67

0.2294772

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

15

15

5

7.4

26

0.8683043

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

10

10

5

6

31

0.817749

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

16

0.9082413

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

3

3

15

10

10

7.9

22

0.883757

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

12

4

10

15

15

10

9

0.9346525

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

70

0.1192258

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

22

2

15

10

15

10.6

4

0.9454276

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

8

3

0

5

5

3.4

36

0.6963267

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

-10

6

-10

-5

-5

-3.8

63

0.2828759

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

9

7

10

10

15

9.3

12

0.9200742

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

6

1

0

5

-5

0.8

47

0.5481186

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

13

-1

15

15

15

10.1

6

0.9365548

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

0

2

0

5

5

2.4

39

0.6415959

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

19

2

0

5

10

5.3

34

0.7884412

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

-4

0

0

-5

-5

-2.4

56

0.3584041

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

24

-1

10

5

15

8.2

18

0.8923866

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

14

0

10

5

15

7.4

26

0.8683043

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-1

-5

0

-5

5

-1.1

52

0.43398

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

33

0.8013255

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

24

0.8746475

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

-3

4

5

0

-5

0.5

51

0.5301187

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

4

1

0

5

-5

0.6

49

0.5361274

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Garcia

-6

-4

-5

-5

5

-2.4

56

0.3584041

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

15

10

15

9

15

0.9131214

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9346525

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

21

0.8866865

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

63

0.2828759

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

8

15

15

15

15

12.8

1

0.9734772

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

15

15

15

11.4

2

0.9575519

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

4

0.9454276

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

11

0.9307153

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

74

0.0868786

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

28

0.865051

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

15

15

5

7.2

29

0.861743

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

56

0.3584041

Utah 4

Owens

Love

9

16

10

10

10

10.1

6

0.9365548

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

15

2

5

5

10

5.9

32

0.8137248

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

-9

-4

-10

-15

-15

-9.7

77

0.0713207

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

12

11

0

5

10

6.4

30

0.8332966

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-6

14

0

5

-5

2.2

40

0.6302444

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 250; Democrats 188

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 3 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 247; Democrats 191

No comments:

Post a Comment