Wednesday, November 2, 2016

2016 Election Projection (11/2)

Here are the facts for the Presidential Race:

Poll Average: Clinton +1.9

Extrapolating the State Polls (my model): Clinton +4.1 (37% chance Trump wins)

The site Five Thirty Eight: Clinton +3.7%, Electoral count: 301 Clinton, 237 Trump (30% Trump Wins)

In 2012 the state poll model I did was correct and the pollster average was wrong.

Most states do not break down the early vote by political affiliation or demographics. Below are the swing states that provide some of this information:

State 2012 Early Voting 2016 Early Voting

AZ R+10 (R+10.1) R+5.9

CO R+1.8 (O+4.7) D+1.9

FL D+3.1 (O+0.9) R+0.4

IA D+11 (O+5.6) D+12.5

OH D+6 (O+1.9) D+?

NV D+6.8 (O+6.6) D+5.4

NC D+16 (R+2.2) D+11.7

NC AA 29% (R+2.2) AA 22.1%

GA AA 32% (R+8.0) AA 28.0%

ME D+14 (O+15.1) D+17

D+2 means the early vote had 2% more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. AA 29% means the portion of the African American vote was 29%. The number in () Represents how the state voted in 2012 – R+8.0 means Romney won the state by 8 points and O+1.9 means Obama won the state by 1.9 points.

So what does this all mean? It is hard to say because this election is a little harder to prognosticate than others for 2 reasons: 1. Third Party candidates will surely get a large portion of the vote (up to 10%) and 2. Since both candidates are highly unpopular, they both will more than likely get a lower portion of their party vote than most presidential candidates. If we simply look at the trends and ignore the above two complications then we can make some educated guesses based on the early voting:

1. Trump should hold both Arizona and Georgia. Republican support in AZ is down, but it should be enough to push him over the top. Also, with African American vote down substantially in Georgia, it seems hard pressed that Clinton will make up 8 points from 2012.

2. Trump should do better in North Carolina than the polls indicate with Democrat and African-American turnout much lower. The state will be decided on an increasing number of independents. The average of the polls has shifted dramatically today with Trump moving ahead. The early voting showed this.

3. Trump may win very close decisions in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. In both Iowa and Ohio the early vote turnout is down (early voting generally favors democrats and their get out to vote machine). Republican turnout is above schedule in Florida and rumor is that the African-American turnout is considerably lower.

4. If 1, 2, and 3 are true then Early Voting does not track the state and national polls outlined at the beginning of this blog.

5. Clinton should win Nevada, Colorado, and Maine (probably congressional district 2). However, Republicans have been gaining share in the early vote in recent days.

6. If Trump wins the Electoral Vote, it seems as if it is highly probable he may not win the popular vote.

Without any further information, it looks like Clinton will win the Electoral Vote: 279 to 259 and the popular vote by 1.5 to 2.5%. Even if the trend (favoring Trump overall) of the early vote takes place in other battleground states such as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, it probably will not be enough for Trump to win in these states. There must be a greater move in the polls towards Trump to suggest this is possible.

Right now I have the Democrats winning 19 seats in the House and the Senate at 51 to 49 in favor of Republicans (That is a gain of 3 seats for the Democrats).

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