2012 Election Polls and Models (8/10/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 56.8% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	22	6	0.8720613	6.104428836
Alaska		3	25	4	0.9016696	0.901669634
Arizona		11	8.7	16	0.6733964	6.060567376
Arkansas		6	24	5	0.8924159	3.569663607
California	55		-17.2	43	0.1871915	9.921150795
Colorado	9		-3	27	0.4384363	3.069054341
Connecticut	7		-10	36	0.3027702	1.513851177
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1508256	0.150825563
DC	3		-70	51	0.0001501	0.000150089
Florida	0	29	-1.4	25	0.4711804	12.72187118
Georgia		16	12	14	0.7322853	10.25199464
Hawaii	4		-27	49	0.0815963	0.163192693
Idaho		4	34	3	0.9604497	1.920899373
Illinois	20		-21	46	0.1390618	2.50311286
Indiana		11	13	13	0.7490122	6.741109456
Iowa	6		-1.3	24	0.4732357	1.892942983
Kansas		6	17	8	0.8100184	3.240073731
Kentucky		8	8	17	0.6602552	3.96153102
Louisiana		8	16	10	0.7956885	4.774130983
Massachusetts	11		-19.2	44	0.1607005	1.446304165
Maine	4		-15.4	41	0.2132101	0.426420231
Maryland	10		-23	47	0.1174494	0.939595345
Michigan	16		-6.3	34	0.3724531	5.214343362
Minnesota	10		-10.5	37	0.2938156	2.35052451
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.8237133	3.294853052
Missouri		10	5.7	22	0.6157648	4.926118316
Montana		3	9	15	0.6789643	0.678964299
Nebraska		5	14	11	0.7651691	2.295507231
Nevada	6		-5.3	31	0.3921506	1.568602291
New Hampshire	4		-3	27	0.4384363	0.876872669
New Jersey	14		-11	39	0.2849854	3.419824823
New Mexico	5		-10.7	38	0.2902683	0.870804974
New York	29		-25.5	48	0.0939283	2.536064283
North Carolina	15	0	1	23	0.5205942	6.767724608
North Dakota		3	14	11	0.7651691	0.765169077
Ohio	18		-4.8	30	0.4021075	6.433720356
Oklahoma		7	35	2	0.9646635	4.823317697
Oregon	7		-6	32	0.37833	1.891650064
Pennsylvania	20		-7	35	0.3588574	6.459432595
Rhode Island	4		-17	42	0.1899816	0.379963134
South Carolina		9	-3	27	0.4384363	3.069054341
South Dakota		3	6	20	0.62167	0.621669987
Tennessee		11	7	18	0.6411426	5.770283703
Texas		38	7	18	0.6411426	23.08113481
Utah		6	42	1	0.984962	3.939848005
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0546892	0.05468917
Virginia	13		-2.8	26	0.442511	4.867621334
Washington	12		-12.2	40	0.2643249	2.643249027
West Virginia		5	17	8	0.8100184	2.430055299
Wisconsin	10		-6	32	0.37833	3.026640103
Wyoming		3	6	20	0.62167	0.621669987
			0
Total	318	220	19.363		0.4963002	0.432077961
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.8777789				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	5	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10	12	0.1853				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	0.3	4	0.5107145				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	6	3	0.7044387	Gain			-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.999137				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	5	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.7	11	0.4750128				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	5	0.5				-1
			0
			11.1688		0.5626985
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	6.7	2	0.7592563			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	31	0.0329887			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-5.5	23	0.2816866			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	11	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	0.7	9	0.529313			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	28	0.1037015			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	6	0.5418365			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-0.1	21	0.4958087	Gain		1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	11	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-11.5	27	0.1134837			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-25	32	0.0043129			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	11	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	4.6	7.5	0.6855526	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	10	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	-1.5	21	0.437389			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	1	0.9293357	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3.7	5	0.6512612			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35	33	0.0001179			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11.3	26	0.1175753			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-5.5	23	0.2816866			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	3	0.7003153			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-7.7	25	0.2092651			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-13.3	29	0.0811589			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	11	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	11	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	11	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	11	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	11	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	0.3	10	0.512572	Gain		-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	30	0.0780471			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	11	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	1	6	0.5418365	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	6	0.5418365			1
			0
			9.51823		0.4130405
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8823958
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9211947
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9125501
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-5	-1.7	85	0.4050736
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9211947
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	13	3	-10	-5	-10	-3.1	89	0.3306651
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3358026
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	110	0.1382693
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	81	0.4774613
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	105	0.2269373
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.714052
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	109	0.1478421
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	46	0.8245077
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9625089
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3054689
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	78	0.5225387
California 31		Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	30	0.8878764
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	38	0.8585879
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3054689
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.1982491
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	76	0.5450054
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7043656
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9252664
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6220593
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-5	-5	-4.7	102	0.2532869
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	5	10	10	5.8	49	0.7937861
Florida 9	Grayson	Buchanan	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3566529
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	15	15	5	7.8	37	0.8648256
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8823958
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	35	0.8767282
Florida 16	Fitzgerald		0	5	10	5	5	5	52	0.7600852
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6220593
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.916957
Florida 22		Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	99	0.285948
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	52	0.7600852
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1612809
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	101	0.2578298
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3255592
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	5	0.6	77	0.5337855
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6538305
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3255592
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	54	0.7329592
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	5	10	15	7.4	40	0.8521579
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	114	0.129128
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	111	0.1351744
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6220593
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7043656
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	97	0.3005335
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.106828
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	3	0.9399637
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	107	0.1754923
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0788053
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	0	-5	-5	-3.4	92	0.3154459
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9211947
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	5	2.6	66	0.6433471
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	35	0.8767282
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.9032168
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	48	0.8095271
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.106828
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8455351
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	27	0.8982846
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9125501
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4105601
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	114	0.129128
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8387191
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	54	0.7329592
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9291757
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0670741
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9125501
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0600363
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.893172
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0788053
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	4	0	-5	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3566529
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0874499
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	15	5	5	10	10	7.5	39	0.855397
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	3	2	0	0	5	1.7	72	0.5949264
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	17	-1	0	0	5	2.5	67	0.6380638
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	46	0.8245077
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-12	1	-5	-5	-5	-4	99	0.285948
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	98	0.2956344
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	104	0.2399148
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	30	0.8878764
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	0	-5	0.4	78	0.5225387
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9252664
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	73	0.5894399
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4105601
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1017154
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9211947
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	75	0.5561896
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	6	-2	-10	-10	-5	-4.8	103	0.2487865
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9079711
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	5	-5	4.1	56	0.7188379
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	0	12	5	5	5	5.4	51	0.7772989
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	30	0.8878764
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.9211947
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.905616
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.714052
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8317099
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	5	1.6	73	0.5894399
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	49	0.7937861
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0788053
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1017154
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9125501
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1351744
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8455351
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8455351
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6538305
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	82	0.4662145
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9252664
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9079711
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.9032168
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1351744
South Carolina 7			0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9252664
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	15	15	15	11.1	2	0.9416294
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0874499
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	93	0.3054689
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9329259
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9125501
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	68	0.6220593
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0874499
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1017154
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-17	13	0	0	-5	-0.1	80	0.4943625
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.714052
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.0920289
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3054689
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1017154
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1017154
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.893172
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0788053
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9365207
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	116	0.1121236
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.083043
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6641974
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.6845541