2012 Election Polls and Models (8/31/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 54.3% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 239; Democrats 196;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 200

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	18	7	0.813278	5.692945861
Alaska		3	25	5	0.8918019	0.891801868
Arizona		11	12	16	0.72353	6.511770242
Arkansas		6	24	6	0.8823311	3.529324555
California	55		-16	42	0.214429	11.36473842
Colorado	9		-1.6	30	0.4684707	3.279294792
Connecticut	7		-7.6	36	0.3535347	1.767673344
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1613477	0.161347694
DC	3		-75	51	0.0001042	0.000104244
Florida	0	29	-1	27	0.4802817	12.96760467
Georgia		16	8	19	0.6537902	9.153062887
Hawaii	4		-27	49	0.0909282	0.181856373
Idaho		4	34	2	0.9536368	1.907273589
Illinois	20		-21	46	0.1495464	2.691835238
Indiana		11	16	12	0.785571	7.070138759
Iowa	6		-0.2	25	0.4960548	1.984219152
Kansas		6	17	9	0.7997123	3.198849137
Kentucky		8	8	19	0.6537902	3.922741237
Louisiana		8	16	12	0.785571	4.713425839
Massachusetts	11		-18.7	44	0.1775731	1.598158066
Maine	4		-14	40	0.244389	0.488777916
Maryland	10		-23	47	0.1277118	1.021694689
Michigan	16		-2	31	0.4606115	6.448560311
Minnesota	10		-6	34	0.3833553	3.066842612
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.813278	3.253111921
Missouri		10	4.3	23	0.5841886	4.67350911
Montana		3	17	9	0.7997123	0.799712284
Nebraska		5	14	14	0.755611	2.266833127
Nevada	6		-4.2	33	0.4177409	1.670963666
New Hampshire	4		-3.5	32	0.4313008	0.862601541
New Jersey	14		-10	38	0.3104882	3.725858235
New Mexico	5		-14	40	0.244389	0.733166873
New York	29		-26	48	0.0992888	2.68079888
North Carolina	15	0	0.7	24	0.5138057	6.679474232
North Dakota		3	14	14	0.755611	0.755611042
Ohio	18		-1.4	28	0.4724051	7.558481727
Oklahoma		7	29	4	0.9242074	4.621036838
Oregon	7		-6	34	0.3833553	1.916776632
Pennsylvania	20		-8	37	0.3462098	6.231776288
Rhode Island	4		-17	43	0.2002877	0.400575431
South Carolina		9	10	18	0.6895118	4.826582696
South Dakota		3	6	22	0.6166447	0.616644674
Tennessee		11	7	21	0.6353763	5.718387047
Texas		38	12	16	0.72353	26.04708097
Utah		6	42	1	0.9810882	3.924352864
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0336603	0.033660269
Virginia	13		-0.6	26	0.4881659	5.369824981
Washington	12		-13	39	0.2601746	2.601746175
West Virginia		5	17	9	0.7997123	2.399136853
Wisconsin	10		-1.4	28	0.4724051	3.779240864
Wyoming		3	30	3	0.9310161	0.931016068
			0
Total	318	220	20.2238		0.5183238	0.456763225
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.7969567				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	5	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	11	0.2490692				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	2	4	0.5508525				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	6	3	0.6493055	Gain			-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9873493				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	12	0.0148954				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.7	10	0.4821591				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	5	0.5				-1
			0
			15.6476		0.5192156
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	6.7	3	0.7498796			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	31	0.0391414			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-0.6	20	0.4759312			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6	24	0.2730277			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	28	0.1136462			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	7	0.5400714			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.7	9	0.5280741			1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	10	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-4.8	23	0.3145673			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-25	32	0.0059459			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-6	27	0.2730277			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2.5	5	0.5992993			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	1	0.9205218	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	5.7	4	0.716846			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-38	33	6.583E-05			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11.3	27	0.1277831			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-7.5	26	0.225244			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	5	0.6925417			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-3.6	22	0.358598			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-14.5	30	0.0722968			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	0	10	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.6	20	0.4759312			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	29	0.0871869			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	7.8	2	0.7837104			-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	7	0.5400714			1
			0
			9.93902		0.4216185
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.881027
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.919978
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.9112877
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-5	-1.7	86	0.405616
Arizona 5	Morgan	Adams	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.919978
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-5	3	-10	-5	-10	-4.9	102	0.2455965
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3367033
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	110	0.1396726
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	80	0.4775925
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	104	0.2282539
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7129316
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	109	0.1492527
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	46	0.8231016
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9616534
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	91	0.3065081
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4110722
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	30	0.8865215
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	38	0.8571816
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	96	0.2870684
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.199627
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	76	0.5447445
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7032846
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9240743
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	70	0.6213709
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-3	-2	-10	-5	-5	-4.7	100	0.2545261
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	0	4	5	10	10	5.8	48	0.7924226
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	0	-3	-10	-5	-10	-5.6	105	0.215712
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	0	4	15	15	5	7.8	37	0.8634257
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.881027
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	35	0.8753472
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	0	5	10	5	5	5	51	0.7588044
Florida 18	Murphy	West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6213709
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	17	0.9157169
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	96	0.2870684
Georgia 12	Barrow	Allen	0	10	5	5	5	5	51	0.7588044
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1626938
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	99	0.2590539
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	89	0.3265082
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	5	0.6	77	0.5335892
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6529801
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	5	-1.2	82	0.4330592
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	54	0.7317672
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	10	15	7.4	40	0.8507473
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	114	0.1305194
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	111	0.1365743
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6213709
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7032846
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	94	0.3015939
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.1081674
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	3	0.9388772
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	107	0.1768984
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.080022
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	0	-7	0	-5	-5	-3.4	90	0.3164411
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.919978
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	5	2.6	66	0.6425489
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	35	0.8753472
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.9019132
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	5	5	15	5.2	50	0.7674762
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1081674
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8441222
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	27	0.8969624
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.9112877
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4110722
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	114	0.1305194
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8373062
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	54	0.7317672
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	8	0.9280089
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0682148
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	18	0.9112877
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0611228
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8918326
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.080022
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	4	0	-5	-5	-5	-2.6	87	0.3574511
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0887123
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	15	5	5	10	10	7.5	39	0.8539882
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	3	2	0	0	5	1.7	73	0.594384
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	17	-1	0	0	5	2.5	67	0.6372925
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	46	0.8231016
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-12	1	-5	-5	-5	-4	96	0.2870684
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	95	0.2967154
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	103	0.2411956
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	30	0.8865215
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	0	5	2.4	68	0.63201
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	6	6	15	15	15	10.8	5	0.9354068
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	0	0	5	0.6	77	0.5335892
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4110722
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1030376
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.919978
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	75	0.5558645
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	6	-2	-10	-10	-5	-4.8	101	0.2500401
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	3	0.9388772
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	5	-5	4.1	56	0.7176988
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	-4	12	5	5	5	5	51	0.7588044
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	30	0.8865215
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	12	0.919978
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.9043222
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7129316
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8302992
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	5	1.6	74	0.5889278
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	48	0.7924226
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.080022
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1030376
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	18	0.9112877
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1365743
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8441222
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8441222
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6529801
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	81	0.4664108
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9240743
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	23	0.9066874
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.9019132
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1365743
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9240743
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	15	15	15	11.1	2	0.9405569
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0887123
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	91	0.3065081
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	7	0.9317852
Texas 14	Lampson	Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.9112877
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	69	0.6213709
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0887123
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1030376
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-17	13	0	0	-5	-0.1	79	0.4943953
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7129316
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.0933126
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	91	0.3065081
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1030376
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1030376
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8918326
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.080022
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	5	0.9354068
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	116	0.1134785
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0842831
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6632967
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.6835589