2012 Election Polls and Models (8/24/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 55.3% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 241; Democrats 194;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	22	6	0.8712351	6.098645851
Alaska		3	25	4	0.9008913	0.900891255
Arizona		11	12	14	0.7315773	6.584195738
Arkansas		6	24	5	0.8916184	3.566473514
California	55		-16	42	0.205125	10.87162398
Colorado	9		-1	26	0.4794772	3.356340057
Connecticut	7		-8	37	0.3402698	1.701348986
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1516653	0.151665301
DC	3		-75	51	5.671E-05	5.67075E-05
Florida	0	29	-1	26	0.4794772	12.94588308
Georgia		16	8	17	0.6597302	9.236222839
Hawaii	4		-27	49	0.0823285	0.164656957
Idaho		4	34	2	0.959927	1.919853969
Illinois	20		-21	46	0.1398968	2.518142253
Indiana		11	16	10	0.794875	7.153875174
Iowa	6		-1	26	0.4794772	1.917908604
Kansas		6	17	8	0.8091912	3.236764797
Kentucky		8	8	17	0.6597302	3.958381217
Louisiana		8	16	10	0.794875	4.769250116
Massachusetts	11		-16	42	0.205125	1.846124826
Maine	4		-14	41	0.2356018	0.471203596
Maryland	10		-23	47	0.118263	0.946103782
Michigan	16		-7.7	36	0.3459466	4.843252407
Minnesota	10		-6	33	0.3787387	3.029909323
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.8228772	3.291508709
Missouri		10	6.3	21	0.6271199	5.016959333
Montana		3	9	16	0.6783869	0.678386905
Nebraska		5	14	12	0.7643982	2.293194606
Nevada	6		-5	32	0.3984623	1.593849117
New Hampshire	4		-3.5	30	0.428525	0.857050099
New Jersey	14		-10	39	0.3033958	3.640749461
New Mexico	5		-8	37	0.3402698	1.020809392
New York	29		-25.5	48	0.0946961	2.556793421
North Carolina	15	0	1.8	24	0.5369046	6.979760371
North Dakota		3	14	12	0.7643982	0.764398202
Ohio	18		-1.8	29	0.4630954	7.409525697
Oklahoma		7	29	3	0.9322173	4.661086302
Oregon	7		-6	33	0.3787387	1.893693327
Pennsylvania	20		-6.5	35	0.3689905	6.641829683
Rhode Island	4		-17	44	0.1908088	0.381617601
South Carolina		9	10	15	0.6966042	4.876229481
South Dakota		3	6	22	0.6212613	0.621261335
Tennessee		11	7	19	0.640674	5.766066347
Texas		38	7	19	0.640674	23.06426539
Utah		6	42	1	0.9846742	3.938696758
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0553067	0.055306738
Virginia	13		-0.7	25	0.4856308	5.34193849
Washington	12		-13	40	0.2517298	2.517298021
West Virginia		5	17	8	0.8091912	2.427573598
Wisconsin	10		-3.5	30	0.428525	3.428200394
Wyoming		3	6	22	0.6212613	0.621261335
			0
Total	318	220	19.4304		0.510665	0.447190999
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.8753351				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	5	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11.3	12	0.1583324				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	2	4	0.5703351				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	6	3	0.702527	Gain			-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9990372				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	5	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.7	11	0.4752696				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	5	0.5				-1
			0
			11.2849		0.5650697
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	6.7	2	0.7581489			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	31	0.0336773			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-5.5	23	0.2826717			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	9	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-2.5	22	0.3969196			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	28	0.1048525			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	7	0.5416262			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-0.1	19	0.4958299	Gain		1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	9	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-11.5	27	0.1146602			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-25	32	0.0044838			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	9	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	5	7.5	0.6993936	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	8	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	-1.5	20	0.4377024			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	1	0.9283265	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3.7	6	0.6505354			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35	33	0.0001268			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11.3	26	0.1187606			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-6.8	24	0.2385998			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	3	0.6993936			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-7.3	25	0.222708			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-13.6	30	0.0775672			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	9	0.5			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	9	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	0	9	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	9	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	9	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.5	20	0.4791585			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	29	0.0790966			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	9	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	4	5	0.6620724			-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	7	0.5416262			1
			0
			9.5665		0.4111496
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8819579
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9208059
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9121466
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-5	-1.7	85	0.4052476
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9208059
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	13	3	-10	-5	-10	-3.1	88	0.3309617
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	87	0.3360915
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	110	0.1387185
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	81	0.4775034
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	104	0.2273592
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7136928
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	109	0.1482937
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	46	0.8240573
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9622362
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	92	0.3058022
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	78	0.5224966
California 31		Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	30	0.887443
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	38	0.8581377
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	92	0.3058022
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.1986905
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	75	0.5449217
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.704019
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9248855
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6218385
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-3	-2	-10	-5	-5	-4.7	101	0.2536841
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	0	4	5	10	10	5.8	48	0.7933493
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	0	-3	-10	-5	-10	-5.6	105	0.2147968
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	0	4	15	15	5	7.8	37	0.8643775
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8819579
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	35	0.8762863
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	0	5	10	5	5	5	52	0.7596747
Florida 18	Murphy	West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6218385
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.9165606
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	98	0.2863072
Georgia 12	Barrow	Allen	0	10	5	5	5	5	52	0.7596747
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1617333
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	100	0.2582222
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	89	0.3258635
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	5	0.6	76	0.5337225
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6535578
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	89	0.3258635
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	54	0.7325771
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	10	15	7.4	40	0.8517063
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	114	0.1295733
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	111	0.1356225
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6218385
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.704019
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	96	0.3008735
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.1072564
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	3	0.9396168
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	107	0.1759427
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0791941
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	0	-7	0	-5	-5	-3.4	91	0.315765
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9208059
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	5	2.6	66	0.6430911
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	35	0.8762863
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.9028
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	5	5	15	5.2	51	0.7683631
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1072564
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8450828
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	27	0.8978618
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9121466
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4107243
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	114	0.1295733
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8382667
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	54	0.7325771
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9288029
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0674384
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9121466
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0603832
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8927436
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0791941
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	4	0	-5	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3569089
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0878534
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	15	5	5	10	10	7.5	39	0.854946
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	3	2	0	0	5	1.7	72	0.5947524
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	17	-1	0	0	5	2.5	67	0.6378164
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	46	0.8240573
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-12	1	-5	-5	-5	-4	98	0.2863072
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	97	0.295981
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	103	0.2403253
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	30	0.887443
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	0	-5	0.4	78	0.5224966
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9248855
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	0	0	5	0.6	76	0.5337225
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4107243
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1021382
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9208059
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	74	0.5560853
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	6	-2	-10	-10	-5	-4.8	102	0.2491883
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9075607
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	5	-5	4.1	56	0.7184727
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	0	12	5	5	5	5.4	50	0.7768736
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	30	0.887443
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.9208059
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.9052023
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7136928
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8312581
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	5	1.6	73	0.5892757
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	48	0.7933493
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0791941
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1021382
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9121466
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1356225
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8450828
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8450828
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6535578
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	82	0.4662775
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9248855
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9075607
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.9028
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1356225
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9248855
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	15	15	15	11.1	2	0.941287
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0878534
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	92	0.3058022
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9325616
Texas 14	Lampson	Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9121466
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	68	0.6218385
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0878534
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1021382
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-17	13	0	0	-5	-0.1	80	0.4943731
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7136928
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.0924393
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	92	0.3058022
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1021382
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1021382
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8927436
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0791941
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9361649
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	116	0.112557
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0834394
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6639085
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.684235