2012 Election Polls and Models (8/17/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 56.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 241; Democrats 194;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	22	6	0.871916	6.103411798
Alaska		3	25	4	0.9015328	0.901532816
Arizona		11	12	14	0.7321607	6.589445861
Arkansas		6	24	5	0.8922757	3.56910277
California	55		-17.2	43	0.1873375	9.928887071
Colorado	9		-1.2	25	0.4753069	3.327148072
Connecticut	7		-10	37	0.3028804	1.514402054
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1509733	0.150973293
DC	3		-70	51	0.0001514	0.000151374
Florida	0	29	-1.4	26	0.471198	12.72234578
Georgia		16	8	16	0.6601627	9.242277768
Hawaii	4		-27	49	0.081725	0.163449969
Idaho		4	34	3	0.960358	1.920715991
Illinois	20		-21	46	0.1392087	2.505756472
Indiana		11	16	10	0.7955453	7.159907779
Iowa	6		-1	24	0.4794184	1.917673484
Kansas		6	17	8	0.8098728	3.239491366
Kentucky		8	8	16	0.6601627	3.960976186
Louisiana		8	16	10	0.7955453	4.773271853
Massachusetts	11		-19.2	44	0.1608483	1.447635027
Maine	4		-15.4	41	0.2133514	0.426702878
Maryland	10		-23	47	0.1175925	0.94073977
Michigan	16		-6.3	34	0.3725283	5.215396442
Minnesota	10		-8	36	0.3398373	2.718698418
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.8235661	3.294264533
Missouri		10	6.3	20	0.6274717	5.019773462
Montana		3	9	15	0.6788626	0.678862599
Nebraska		5	14	12	0.7650334	2.295100069
Nevada	6		-5.3	31	0.3922148	1.568859356
New Hampshire	4		-2.6	27	0.4466243	0.893248506
New Jersey	14		-11	39	0.2851032	3.421238997
New Mexico	5		-10.7	38	0.290384	0.871151872
New York	29		-25.5	48	0.0940632	2.539707554
North Carolina	15	0	1	23	0.5205816	6.767561179
North Dakota		3	14	12	0.7650334	0.765033356
Ohio	18		-4	30	0.4182183	6.691492841
Oklahoma		7	35	2	0.9645774	4.822887222
Oregon	7		-6	33	0.378402	1.892010021
Pennsylvania	20		-7	35	0.3589399	6.460918443
Rhode Island	4		-17	42	0.1901272	0.380254317
South Carolina		9	-3	28	0.4384736	3.069315543
South Dakota		3	6	21	0.621598	0.621597996
Tennessee		11	7	18	0.6410601	5.769540778
Texas		38	7	18	0.6410601	23.07816311
Utah		6	42	1	0.9849116	3.939646524
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0547976	0.054797583
Virginia	13		-3.2	29	0.4344079	4.778486795
Washington	12		-12.2	40	0.2644508	2.644508458
West Virginia		5	17	8	0.8098728	2.429618524
Wisconsin	10		-5.4	32	0.3902328	3.121862302
Wyoming		3	6	21	0.621598	0.621597996
			0
Total	318	220	19.3748		0.4994815	0.434325504
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.8746343				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	5	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11.3	12	0.1590485				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	0.3	4	0.510573				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	6	3	0.7019826	Gain			-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.999007				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	5	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.7	11	0.4753426				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	5	0.5				-1
			0
			11.3184		0.560049
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	6.7	2	0.7592789			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	31	0.0329748			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-5.5	23	0.2816665			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	9	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	0.7	8	0.529316			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	28	0.1036782			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	6	0.5418408			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-0.1	19	0.4958083	Gain		1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	9	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-11.5	27	0.1134598			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-25	32	0.0043095			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	9	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	5	7.5	0.7003341	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	8	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	-1.5	21	0.4373826			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	1	0.9293562	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3.7	5	0.651276			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35	33	0.0001178			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11.3	26	0.1175512			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-5.5	23	0.2816665			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	3	0.7003341			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-8.7	25	0.1803244			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-13.3	29	0.0811373			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	9	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	9	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	9	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	9	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	9	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.5	21	0.4790507			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	30	0.0780258			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	9	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-0.3	20	0.4874267			-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	6	0.5418408			1
			0
			9.51725		0.4099442
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8821636
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9209886
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9123362
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-5	-1.7	85	0.4051659
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9209886
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	13	3	-10	-5	-10	-3.1	89	0.3308224
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3359558
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	110	0.1385075
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	81	0.4774837
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	104	0.227161
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7138614
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	109	0.1480815
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	46	0.8242689
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9623644
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3056457
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	78	0.5225163
California 31		Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	30	0.8876466
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	38	0.8583492
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3056457
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.1984832
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	76	0.544961
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7041817
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9250646
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6219422
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.7	105	0.2104967
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	5	10	10	5.8	49	0.7935545
Florida 9	Grayson	Buchanan	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3567887
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	15	15	5	7.8	37	0.864588
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8821636
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	35	0.8764939
Florida 16	Fitzgerald		0	5	10	5	5	5	52	0.7598675
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6219422
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.9167469
Florida 22		Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	99	0.2861386
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	52	0.7598675
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1615208
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	101	0.2580379
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3257206
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	5	0.6	77	0.5337521
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6536858
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3257206
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	54	0.7327565
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	5	10	15	7.4	40	0.8519185
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	114	0.1293641
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	111	0.135412
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6219422
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7041817
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	97	0.3007139
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.1070551
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	3	0.9397798
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	107	0.1757311
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0790114
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	0	-5	-5	-3.4	92	0.3156152
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9209886
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	5	2.6	66	0.6432113
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	35	0.8764939
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.9029959
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	48	0.809291
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1070551
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8452953
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	27	0.8980605
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9123362
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4106472
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	114	0.1293641
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8384792
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	54	0.7327565
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9289781
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0672672
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9123362
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0602202
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8929449
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0790114
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	4	0	-5	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3567887
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0876638
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	15	5	5	10	10	7.5	39	0.8551579
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	3	2	0	0	5	1.7	72	0.5948341
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	17	-1	0	0	5	2.5	67	0.6379326
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	46	0.8242689
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-12	1	-5	-5	-5	-4	99	0.2861386
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	98	0.2958183
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	103	0.2401325
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	30	0.8876466
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	0	-5	0.4	78	0.5225163
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9250646
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	73	0.5893528
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.4106472
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1019395
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9209886
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	75	0.5561343
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	6	-2	-10	-10	-5	-4.8	102	0.2489996
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9077535
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	5	-5	4.1	56	0.7186442
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	0	12	5	5	5	5.4	51	0.7770734
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	30	0.8876466
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.9209886
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.9053967
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7138614
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8314703
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	5	1.6	73	0.5893528
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	49	0.7935545
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0790114
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1019395
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9123362
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.135412
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8452953
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8452953
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6536858
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	82	0.4662479
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9250646
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9077535
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.9029959
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.135412
South Carolina 7			0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9250646
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	15	15	15	11.1	2	0.941448
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0876638
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	93	0.3056457
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9327328
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9123362
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	68	0.6219422
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0876638
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1019395
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-17	13	0	0	-5	-0.1	80	0.4943681
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7138614
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.0922465
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3056457
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1019395
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1019395
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8929449
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0790114
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9363321
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	116	0.1123534
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0832531
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6640442
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.6843848