2012 Election Polls and Models (8/3/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 57% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	15	10	0.7853793	5.497654982
Alaska		3	25	4	0.9061618	0.906161776
Arizona		11	6.8	19	0.6399614	5.759652679
Arkansas		6	24	5	0.8970257	3.588102908
California	55		-17.2	43	0.1823544	9.664784276
Colorado	9		-2.9	27	0.4392669	3.074868316
Connecticut	7		-12	40	0.2635653	1.317826394
DC	3		-70	50	0.0001126	0.000112588
Florida	0	29	-0.6	24	0.4873877	13.1594679
Georgia		16	10	13	0.700901	9.812613731
Hawaii	4		-27	48	0.0773851	0.154770163
Idaho		4	34	3	0.9634157	1.9268315
Illinois	20		-21	45	0.1342147	2.41586528
Indiana		11	9	14	0.6823549	6.141194534
Iowa	6		-1.3	26	0.4726902	1.890760646
Kansas		6	17	7	0.814844	3.259376014
Kentucky		8	8	15	0.6633396	3.980037754
Louisiana		8	16	9	0.8004388	4.802633005
Massachusetts	11		-19.2	44	0.1558102	1.402292002
Maine	4		-15.4	41	0.2085192	0.417038336
Maryland	10		-23	46	0.1127399	0.90191898
Michigan	16		-4.2	29	0.4124149	5.773808615
Minnesota	10		-10.5	38	0.2900142	2.320113504
Mississippi		6	18	6	0.828585	3.314340081
Missouri		10	5.7	22	0.6180588	4.944470095
Montana		3	7	16	0.6438972	0.643897197
Nebraska		5	13	12	0.753357	2.260070885
Nevada	6		-4.6	30	0.4042285	1.616914045
New Hampshire	4		-5.3	32	0.3900048	0.780009539
New Jersey	14		-9.5	36	0.3083109	3.699730512
New Mexico	5		-10.7	39	0.2864168	0.859250494
New York	29		-25.5	47	0.0895011	2.416529463
North Carolina	15	0	0.4	23	0.508409	6.609316717
North Dakota		3	14	11	0.7696793	0.769679277
Ohio	18		-5	31	0.3960838	6.337341542
Oklahoma		7	35	2	0.9674432	4.837216071
Oregon	7		-6	34	0.3759268	1.879634065
Pennsylvania	20		-5.8	33	0.3799332	6.838797258
Rhode Island	4		-17	42	0.185156	0.370311993
South Carolina		9	-3	28	0.4371898	3.060328304
South Dakota		3	6	20	0.6240732	0.624073187
Tennessee		11	7	16	0.6438972	5.795074769
Texas		38	7	16	0.6438972	23.18029907
Utah		6	40	1	0.9824834	3.929933587
Vermont	3		-31	49	0.051163	0.051163016
Virginia	13		-1.2	25	0.474788	5.22266803
Washington	12		-10.2	37	0.2954496	2.954495881
West Virginia		5	17	7	0.814844	2.444532011
Wisconsin	10		-6	34	0.3759268	3.007414504
Wyoming		3	6	20	0.6240732	0.624073187
			0
Total	315	220	18.9756		0.4992615	0.430435519
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	6	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.878762				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	6	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10	12	0.1843016				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	6	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	0.3	4	0.5107593				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	5	3	0.6734812	Gain			-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9991747				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	6	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	6	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	0.3	4	0.5107593	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	6	0.5				-1
			0
			11.1223		0.5631032
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	7.4	4	0.7560753			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	31	0.0504417			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-5.5	24	0.3030625			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	11	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-1.4	22	0.44779			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	28	0.1303002			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.9755064			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-0.1	21	0.4962601	Gain		1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	11	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-10.7	27	0.157906			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-25	32	0.0095469			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	11	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	6.7	7.5	0.7350341	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	10	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	-1.5	22	0.4440844			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.905319	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3.7	7	0.6356543			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35	33	0.0005169			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	10.3	3	0.8328783			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-5.5	24	0.3030625			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	6	0.6803718			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-9	26	0.1994102			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-14.6	30	0.0855438			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	11	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	11	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	11	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	11	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	11	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	0.3	10	0.5112185	Gain		-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	29	0.1028291			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	11	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	1	8	0.5373452	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5373452			1
			0
			10.6669		0.4496213
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.88302
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9217481
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9131248
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4213778
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9217481
Arizona 2	Barber		0	3	-10	-5	-5	-3.4	92	0.3149897
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3353897
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	0	-1	-10	-10	-10	-6.2	108	0.1898374
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	79	0.4774012
California 9	McNerney	Gill	0	-2	-5	-5	-5	-3.4	92	0.3149897
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7145653
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1471979
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	46	0.8251504
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9628961
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3049927
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	76	0.5225988
California 31		Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	30	0.8884941
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	38	0.8592299
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3049927
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	107	0.1976189
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	75	0.5451252
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7048609
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9258086
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.622375
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.7	104	0.2096462
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	5	10	5	4.8	53	0.7517876
Florida 9	Grayson	Buchanan	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.356287
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	15	15	5	7.8	37	0.8654645
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.88302
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	35	0.8773582
Florida 16	Fitzgerald		0	5	10	5	10	6	50	0.8023811
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	67	0.622375
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.9175213
Florida 22		Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	100	0.2854347
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	52	0.7606715
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	110	0.1606353
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	101	0.2572692
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3251242
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	82	0.4213778
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6542204
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3251242
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	54	0.7335051
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	5	10	15	7.4	40	0.8528021
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	115	0.1284932
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	112	0.1345355
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	67	0.622375
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7048609
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	98	0.3000476
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.1062176
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.940457
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	109	0.1822472
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0782519
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-5	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2220937
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9217481
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	5	2.6	66	0.643713
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	35	0.8773582
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.9038106
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	49	0.8101626
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1062176
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8461805
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	27	0.8988871
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9131248
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4103252
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	115	0.1284932
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8393647
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	54	0.7335051
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9297061
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0665557
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9131248
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.059543
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8937824
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0782519
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3353897
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0868752
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	15	5	5	10	10	7.5	39	0.8560402
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	73	0.5786222
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	0	-1	0	0	-5	-1.2	81	0.4324927
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	46	0.8251504
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	87	0.3457796
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	99	0.2951391
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	102	0.2393285
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	30	0.8884941
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	0	-5	0.4	76	0.5225988
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9258086
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	71	0.5896748
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4103252
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1011129
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9217481
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	74	0.5563387
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	6	-2	-10	-10	-10	-5.8	105	0.2055901
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9085556
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	0	11	0	5	5	4.2	56	0.724115
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	0	12	5	5	10	6.4	48	0.8177528
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	30	0.8884941
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.9217481
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.9062053
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7145653
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8323545
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-3	4	0	0	5	1.5	72	0.5841568
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	51	0.7944099
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0782519
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1011129
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9131248
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	112	0.1345355
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8461805
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8461805
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6542204
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	80	0.4661244
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9258086
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9085556
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.9038106
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	112	0.1345355
South Carolina 7			0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9258086
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.940457
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0868752
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	94	0.3049927
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9334443
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9131248
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	67	0.622375
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0868752
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1011129
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-15	13	0	0	-5	0.1	78	0.5056525
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7145653
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.0914444
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3049927
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1011129
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1011129
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8937824
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0782519
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9370266
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	105	0.2055901
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0824787
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6646103
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.6850103