Friday, March 16, 2012

2012 Election Models (3/16/22)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 33; Democrats 15 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 232; Democrats 203

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

Alaska

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Arkansas

6

0

2

0.5

2

California

55

0

2

0.5

26.5

Colorado

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

Connecticut

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

DC

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Florida

29

0

2

0.5

13.5

Georgia

16

0

2

0.5

7

Hawaii

4

0

2

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

2

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

2

0.5

9

Indiana

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Iowa

6

0

2

0.5

2

Kansas

6

0

2

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

2

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

2

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Maine

4

0

2

0.5

1

Maryland

10

0

2

0.5

4

Michigan

16

0

2

0.5

7

Minnesota

10

0

2

0.5

4

Mississippi

6

0

2

0.5

2

Missouri

10

0

2

0.5

4

Montana

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Nebraska

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

Nevada

6

0

2

0.5

2

New Hampshire

4

0

2

0.5

1

New Jersey

14

0

2

0.5

6

New Mexico

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

New York

29

0

2

0.5

13.5

North Carolina

15

0

2

0.5

6.5

North Dakota

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Ohio

18

0

2

0.5

8

Oklahoma

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

Oregon

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

Pennsylvania

20

0

2

0.5

9

Rhode Island

4

0

2

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Texas

38

0

2

0.5

18

Utah

6

0

2

0.5

2

Vermont

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Virginia

13

0

2

0.5

5.5

Washington

12

0

2

0.5

5

West Virginia

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

0

2

0.5

4

Wyoming

3

6

1

1

1

0

Total

329

206

0.84853

0.51

0.501149425

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

3

0.5

-1

Indiana

Daniels

0

3

0.5

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

3

0.5

-1

Louisiana

Jindal

0

3

0.5

1

Mississippi

Barbour

0

3

0.5

1

Missouri

Nixon

-18

14

0.000405

-1

Montana

Schweitzer

0

3

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Lynch

0

3

0.5

-1

North Carolina

Bowles

McCrory

4

2

0.7716549

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

3

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

3

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

3

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

6.3

1

0.8794587

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

0

3

0.5

-1

0

5.37412

0.5108228

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

11

2

0.9385421

1

California

Feinstein

0

9

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Lieberman

0

9

0.5

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

9

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

5

4

0.7584123

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

33

0.0025173

-1

Indiana

Lugar

0

9

0.5

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

4

5

0.7125888

1

Maine

Pingree

Summers

-3

27

0.3369788

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-15

30

0.0177061

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

0

9

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Wicker

0

9

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

1

7

0.5557652

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

0

8

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

1.6

5

0.5887713

Gain

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Bruning

16.5

1

0.9896654

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

0

9

0.5

1

New York

Gillibrand

0

9

0.5

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-15

30

0.0177061

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-5

28

0.2415877

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

0

9

0.5

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-9.5

29

0.0913827

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

0

9

0.5

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

9

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

9

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

9

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

9

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

9

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

0

9

0.5

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-15

30

0.0177061

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

0

9

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

5.5

3

0.7797428

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

7

0.5557652

1

0

7.13059

0.4728739

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

13

0.9101278

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

6

0.9232349

Arkansas 4

Ross

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

60

0.7442486

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

10

1.6

76

0.590312

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

5

8

29

0.8732185

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

0

0

-15

-2.4

87

0.3659793

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

0

-5

-2

85

0.3876556

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-5

-10

-15

-6.2

105

0.1881196

California 7

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

76

0.590312

California 9

McNerney

0

-2

-5

-5

-15

-5.4

95

0.2204503

California 10

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

62

0.7159558

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1454595

California 21

0

3

5

0

15

4.6

60

0.7442486

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9639303

California 24

Capps

0

-3

-10

-5

-15

-6.6

106

0.1731132

California 26

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

83

0.409688

California 31

Miller

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

87

0.3659793

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

36

0.8609619

California 41

0

-3

-5

-5

-15

-5.6

97

0.2120824

California 47

0

-5

-10

-5

-15

-7

108

0.1588923

California 52

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

78

0.54545

Colorado 3

Tipton

0

4

5

10

15

6.8

44

0.8340957

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

3

0.9272644

Colorado 6

Coffman

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

68

0.6760549

Connecticut 5

Murphy

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1454595

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

35

0.8671876

Florida 9

0

-3

-5

-10

-15

-6.6

106

0.1731132

Florida 8

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

13

0.9101278

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

24

0.884702

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

27

0.8790561

Florida 16

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

15

8

29

0.8732185

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

0

15

3.2

67

0.6760549

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

10

15

8.8

23

0.895426

Florida 22

0

-5

0

-15

-15

-7

108

0.1588923

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

10

6

51

0.804085

Illinois 8

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-5

-6

101

0.195915

Illinois 10

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-10

-5.6

97

0.2120824

Illinois 11

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

89

0.3239451

Illinois 12

Costello

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

82

0.4208169

Illinois 13

Johnson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

72

0.6552775

Illinois 17

Schilling

0

-6

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

92

0.2744489

Indiana 2

Donnelly

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

55

0.7795497

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

5

6.4

48

0.8194814

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1267815

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1328124

Iowa 3

Boswell

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

81

0.45455

Iowa 4

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

65

0.7062029

Kentucky 6

Chandler

0

9

-5

-10

-5

-2.2

86

0.3767689

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

113

0.1390381

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9417796

Maryland 6

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

0

-5

-3.4

90

0.3137535

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

127

0.0767651

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-10

-10

-15

-8.4

121

0.115298

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

10

5

7

43

0.8411077

Michigan 1

Benishek

0

3

5

5

15

5.6

54

0.7879176

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

3

0.9272644

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8479226

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

15

10

15

8.2

27

0.8790561

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1328124

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8479226

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

10

15

8

29

0.8732185

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

7

15

10

15

9.4

13

0.9101278

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

79

0.522762

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-10

-10

-15

-6

101

0.195915

Montana 1

Rehberg

0

7

10

5

5

5.4

55

0.7795497

New Jersey 3

Runyan

0

1

5

5

15

5.2

58

0.7709956

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

13

0.9101278

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

131

0.0651649

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

10

0.9146699

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

133

0.0582204

New Jersey 9

Rothman

0

-9

-15

-15

-15

-10.8

132

0.0616163

New Jersey 12

Holt

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

127

0.0767651

New York 1

Bishop

0

0

-10

-5

-15

-6

101

0.195915

New York 9

Turner

0

-5

0

15

15

5

59

0.7622585

New York 13

Grimm

0

4

5

10

15

6.8

44

0.8340957

New York 19

Hayworth

0

3

5

10

15

6.6

46

0.8268868

New York 20

Gibson

0

2

5

10

15

6.4

48

0.8194814

New York 22

Hinchey

0

-6

-15

-15

-15

-10.2

130

0.0727356

New York 23

Owens

0

1

-5

-5

-15

-4.8

94

0.2466584

New York 24

Hanna

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

38

0.8545405

New York 25

Buerkle

0

-3

-5

0

-15

-4.6

93

0.2557514

New York 29

Reed

0

5

10

15

15

9

21

0.9005087

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

18

0.9054083

New Hampshire 1

Guinta

0

0

10

5

5

4

62

0.7159558

New Hampshire 2

Bass

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

79

0.522762

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1267815

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

6

0.9232349

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

0

5

5

2

74

0.6123444

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-5

-5.4

95

0.2204503

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

13

0.9101278

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

0

11

0

0

5

3.2

67

0.6760549

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

10

6.4

48

0.8194814

North Carolina 11

Shuler

0

13

10

10

5

7.6

36

0.8609619

North Carolina 13

Miller

0

10

10

10

10

8

29

0.8732185

North Dakota 1

Berg

0

10

10

10

15

9

21

0.9005087

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

62

0.7159558

Ohio 7

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

5

5.8

52

0.7960968

Ohio 16

Renacci

0

4

0

0

5

1.8

75

0.6013686

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

52

0.7960968

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

127

0.0767651

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-7

108

0.1588923

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

10

0.9146699

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

114

0.1328124

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8479226

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8479226

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

72

0.6552775

Pennsylvania 12

Altmire

0

6

-5

-5

-5

-1.8

84

0.3986314

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

18

0.9054083

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

10

15

15

8.4

24

0.884702

Pennsylvania 16

Pitts

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

3

0.9272644

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

114

0.1328124

South Carolina 7

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

18

0.9054083

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

10

15

10

6

0.9232349

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0853301

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-15

-5.6

97

0.2120824

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

0

10

15

6.6

46

0.8268868

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

10

0.9146699

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

10

3.2

67

0.6760549

Texas 34

0

-3

-10

-15

-15

-8.6

123

0.1098421

Texas 35

0

0

-15

0

-15

-6

101

0.195915

Utah 4

Matheson

0

13

0

0

5

3.6

66

0.6962978

Virginia 2

Rigell

0

5

10

10

15

8

29

0.8732185

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

121

0.115298

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

91

0.3037022

Washington 6

Dicks

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

124

0.0945917

Washington 3

Beutler

0

0

15

10

15

8

29

0.8732185

Washington 8

Reichert

0

-3

15

15

15

8.4

24

0.884702

Washington 10

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1267815

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

10

15

9.8

9

0.9190379

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

100

0.2039032

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

126

0.0809621

Wisconsin 7

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

71

0.6657297

Wisconsin 8

Ribble

0

2

5

5

15

5.4

55

0.7795497

0

0

0

7.0068612

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