2012 Election Polls and Models (3/1/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 242; Democrats 193;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 232; Democrats 203

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	2	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Arkansas		6	0	2	0.5	2
California	55		0	2	0.5	26.5
Colorado	9		0	2	0.5	3.5
Connecticut	7		0	2	0.5	2.5
DC	3		0	2	0.5	0.5
Florida	29		0	2	0.5	13.5
Georgia		16	0	2	0.5	7
Hawaii	4		0	2	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	2	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	2	0.5	9
Indiana		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Iowa	6		0	2	0.5	2
Kansas		6	0	2	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	2	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	2	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		0	2	0.5	4.5
Maine	4		0	2	0.5	1
Maryland	10		0	2	0.5	4
Michigan	16		0	2	0.5	7
Minnesota	10		0	2	0.5	4
Mississippi		6	0	2	0.5	2
Missouri		10	0	2	0.5	4
Montana		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Nebraska		5	0	2	0.5	1.5
Nevada	6		0	2	0.5	2
New Hampshire	4		0	2	0.5	1
New Jersey	14		0	2	0.5	6
New Mexico	5		0	2	0.5	1.5
New York	29		0	2	0.5	13.5
North Carolina		15	0	2	0.5	6.5
North Dakota		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Ohio	18		0	2	0.5	8
Oklahoma		7	0	2	0.5	2.5
Oregon	7		0	2	0.5	2.5
Pennsylvania	20		0	2	0.5	9
Rhode Island	4		0	2	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	2	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Texas		38	0	2	0.5	18
Utah		6	0	2	0.5	2
Vermont	3		0	2	0.5	0.5
Virginia	13		0	2	0.5	5.5
Washington	12		0	2	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	2	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		0	2	0.5	4
Wyoming		3	6	1	1	1
			0
Total	329	206	0.84853		0.51	0.501149425
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability
Delaware	Markell		0	3	0.5
Indiana		Daniels	0	3	0.5
Kentucky	Beshear		0	3	0.5
Lousiana		Jindal	0	3	0.5
Mississippi		Barbour	0	3	0.5
Missouri	Nixon		-18	14	0.0003178
Montana	Schweitzer		0	3	0.5
New Hampshire	Lynch		0	3	0.5
North Carolina	Bowles	McCrory	2	2	0.6478595	Gain
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	3	0.5
Utah		Herbert	0	3	0.5
Vermont	Shumlin		0	3	0.5
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	1	0.8840689	Gain
West Virgina	Tomblin		0	3	0.5
			0
			5.26943		0.5023033
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	9.3	1	0.9508978
California	Feinstein		0	7	0.5
Connecticut	Lieberman		0	7	0.5
Delaware	Carper		0	7	0.5
Florida	Nelson	Mack	0	7	0.5
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	33	0.0001881
Indiana		Lugar	0	7	0.5
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-0.3	28	0.4787295	Gain
Maine		Snowe	0	7	0.5
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-15	31	0.0038251
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	7	0.5
Mississippi		Wicker	0	7	0.5
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	1	4	0.5705634	Gain
Maryland	Cardin		0	6	0.5
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	1.6	2	0.6119841	Gain
Nebraska	Nelson		0	7	0.5
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	0	7	0.5
New York	Gillibrand		0	7	0.5
New Jersey	Menendez		0	7	0.5
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-5	29	0.1869898
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	7	0.5
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-9.3	30	0.0491022
Pennsylvania	Casey		0	7	0.5
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	7	0.5
Tennessee		Corker	0	7	0.5
Texas		Hutchison	0	7	0.5
Utah		Hatch	0	7	0.5
Vermont	Sanders		0	7	0.5
Virgina	Kaine	Allen	0.2	6	0.5141841	Gain
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	31	0.0038251
West Virgina	Manchin		0	7	0.5
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	5	2	0.8130102	Gain
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	4	0.5705634
			0
			5.62402		0.4622383
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	12	0.9122595
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	10	15	15	9	19	0.9027101
Arkansas 4	Ross		0	8	5	5	5	4.6	60	0.7463307
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	6	0	-5	10	2.2	75	0.6244089
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	0	5	5	57	0.7644341
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	0	-10	-15	-4.4	93	0.2629875
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	0	-5	-2	87	0.3865756
California 3	Garamendi		0	-1	-5	-10	-15	-6.2	106	0.1857701
California 7		Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	77	0.5911889
California 9	McNerney		0	-2	-5	-5	-15	-5.4	96	0.2181991
California 10		Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	62	0.7178651
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	110	0.1430886
California 21			0	3	5	0	15	4.6	60	0.7463307
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9653155
California 24	Capps		0	-3	-10	-5	-15	-6.6	107	0.1707405
California 26			0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	85	0.4088111
California 31		Miller	0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	88	0.3647065
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	35	0.8633229
California 41			0	-3	-5	-5	-15	-5.6	98	0.2098
California 47			0	-5	-10	-5	-15	-7	108	0.1565127
California 52		Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	79	0.5458972
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	10	15	6.8	44	0.8364739
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	3	0.9292331
Colorado 6		Coffman	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	69	0.6776756
Connecticut 5	Murphy		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	110	0.1430886
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	15	15	8.8	23	0.8976589
Florida 9			0	-3	-5	-15	-15	-7.6	112	0.1366771
Florida 8			0	2	15	10	15	8.4	26	0.8869896
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	12	0.9122595
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8502997
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	15	15	9	19	0.9027101
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	0	15	3.2	68	0.6776756
Florida 24		Adams	0	4	15	10	15	8.8	23	0.8976589
Florida 25		Rivera	0	5	15	5	15	8	32	0.8755493
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	10	6	50	0.8064165
Illinois 8		Walsh	0	-5	-10	-5	-5	-5	95	0.2355659
Illinois 10		Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-10	-5.6	98	0.2098
Illinois 11		Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	89	0.3223244
Illinois 12	Costello		0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	84	0.4200448
Illinois 13		Johnson	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	72	0.656731
Illinois 17		Schilling	0	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	92	0.2724777
Indiana 2	Donnelly		0	7	5	5	10	5.4	54	0.7818009
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	5	6.4	47	0.8218446
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	117	0.1244507
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1304649
Iowa 3	Boswell		0	1	0	0	-5	-0.8	82	0.4541028
Iowa 4		King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	65	0.708046
Kentucky 6	Chandler		0	9	-5	-5	-5	-1.2	83	0.4313441
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	112	0.1366771
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9435628
Maryland 6		Bartlett	0	-2	-10	0	-5	-3.4	90	0.3120548
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0747532
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-10	-10	-15	-8.4	120	0.1130104
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	10	10	5	6	50	0.8064165
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	10	15	6.6	46	0.8292595
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	3	0.9292331
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8502997
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	30	0.8813669
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1304649
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8502997
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	10	15	9.4	12	0.9122595
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	5	5	1.4	78	0.5799552
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-10	-10	-15	-6	103	0.1935835
Montana 1		Rehberg	0	7	10	5	5	5.4	54	0.7818009
New Jersey 3		Runyan	0	1	5	5	15	5.2	56	0.7732113
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	12	0.9122595
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	130	0.0632868
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	9	0.9167635
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0564372
New Jersey 9	Rothman		0	-9	-15	-15	-15	-10.8	131	0.0597852
New Jersey 12	Holt		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	122	0.0972899
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-10	-5	-15	-6	103	0.1935835
New York 9		Turner	0	-5	0	15	15	5	57	0.7644341
New York 13		Grimm	0	4	5	15	15	7.8	34	0.8695351
New York 19		Hayworth	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	35	0.8633229
New York 20		Gibson	0	2	10	10	15	7.4	37	0.8569114
New York 22	Hinchey		0	-6	-10	-15	-15	-9.2	124	0.092424
New York 23	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-15	-4.8	94	0.2445273
New York 24		Hanna	0	2	10	10	15	7.4	37	0.8569114
New York 25		Buerkle	0	-3	0	0		-0.6	81	0.4655438
New York 26	Hochul		0	6	-5	-15	-15	-5.8	100	0.2015941
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.907576
New Hampshire 1		Guinta	0	0	10	5	5	4	62	0.7178651
New Hampshire 2		Bass	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	80	0.5229867
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	117	0.1244507
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	6	0.9252468
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	5	5	2	76	0.6134244
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-5	-5.4	96	0.2181991
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	10	15	8.4	26	0.8869896
North Carolina 7	McIntyre		0	11	0	0	5	3.2	68	0.6776756
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	10	6.4	47	0.8218446
North Carolina 11	Shuler		0	13	10	0	5	5.6	53	0.7902
North Carolina 13	Miller		0	10	10	5	10	7	43	0.8434873
North Dakota 1		Berg	0	10	10	10	15	9	19	0.9027101
Ohio 6		Johnson	0	5	5	10	5	5	57	0.7644341
Ohio 7		Gibbs	0	4	10	15	5	6.8	44	0.8364739
Ohio 16		Renacci	0	4	0	5	5	2.8	72	0.656731
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	52	0.7984059
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	122	0.0972899
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-10	-10	-15	-7	108	0.1565127
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	9	0.9167635
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-5	-15	-5.8	100	0.2015941
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	30	0.8813669
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8502997
Pennsylvania 8		Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	72	0.656731
Pennsylvania 12	Altmire		0	6	-5	-5	-5	-1.8	86	0.3976518
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.907576
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	10	15	15	8.4	26	0.8869896
Pennsylvania 16		Pitts	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	3	0.9292331
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1304649
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	16	0.907576
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	10	15	10	6	0.9252468
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0832365
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	-10	-10	-15	-9.6	125	0.0832365
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	10	10	15	8.6	25	0.8924195
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	9	0.9167635
Texas 23		Canseco	0	5	0	5	10	4	62	0.7178651
Texas 27			0	-3	-10	15	15	3.4	67	0.6879452
Texas 35			0	0	-15	0	-15	-6	103	0.1935835
Utah 4	Matheson		0	13	0	0	5	3.6	66	0.6980708
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	10	15	15	9	19	0.9027101
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	120	0.1130104
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	91	0.3019292
Washington 2	Larsen		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0832365
Washington 3		Herrero-Beutler	0	0	15	10	15	8	32	0.8755493
Washington 8		Reichert	0	-3	15	15	15	8.4	26	0.8869896
Washinton 10			0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	117	0.1244507
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	10	15	9.8	8	0.9210915
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	100	0.2015941
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0789085
Wisconsin 7		Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	71	0.6672685
Wisconsin 8		Ribble	0	2	5	10	15	6.4	47	0.8218446
			0							0
			0							6.9382898