Romney Wins Popular Vote but Loses the Electoral College

Here is how the past few election cycles voted based on exit polls in terms of political ideology:

Year	Democrat %	Republican %	Independent %	Notes
2000	39	35	27	Gore Wins by 0.1% Popular Vote
2002	38	40	22	Republicans pick up a few House seats
2004	37	37	26	Bush by 3%
2006	38	36	26	Democrats make big gains in the House
2008	39	32	29	Obama by over 7%
2010	35	35	29	Republicans make big gains in the House
Average	37.6666667	35.83333333	26.5	Democrats by 1.88%

The difficult thing to measure is what is going to be the breakdown in political ideology in the 2012 Election. Here are some poll figures and some simple manipulations to better understand the data and to break it down by voting ideology, ethnicity, and gender (those results are in bold font):

All Numbers are in %
Poll	D	R	I	O		RR	MA		Date
IPOS/Reuters	46	38	19	46		46		D 8		20-Oct
Gallup	38	33	29	46		51		D 5		Daily
Rasmussen	37	36	33	47		49		D 1		Daily
NBC	32	26	40	47		47		D 6		21-Oct
FOX	38	32	30	45		46		D 6		10-Oct
PEW	34	34	29	47		47		D 2		29-Oct
National Journal	36	29	30	47		47		D 7		3-Oct
NPR	38	30	32	51		44		D 8		3-Oct
CNN	40	32	28	47		48		D 8		25-Oct
CBS	34	34	32	48		46		0		22-Oct
TIPP	40	32	28	45		44		D 8		Daily
Quinnipiac	36	33	29	49		45		D 3		2-Oct
Battleground	43	41	15	49		49		D 2		29-Oct
Survey USA	36	33	31	45		48		D 3		22-Oct
AP/GfK	31	25	27	45		47		D 6		25-Oct
WA Times	37	35	28	50		47		D 2		22-Oct
YouGov	45	36	20	48		46		D 9		25-Oct
ABC	34	29	33	49		49		D 5		Daily
American Research	40	34	26	49		47		D 4		21-Sep
PPP	35	29	29	49		48		D 6		22-Oct
UCONN	44	38	18	48		45		D 6		19-Oct
Poll Average	38	33	28	47		47		5		0.524
2012 Model	38	34	28	1		1		1
Poll Scale				48		49		-0.9
Poll	DO	RO	IO	DR	RR	IR	MO	FO	MR	FR	WO	NOW	WR	NWR	M	F	W	NW
IPOS/Reuters	87	4	38	7	92	52
Gallup	91	6	43	6	92	43	42	48	52	45	38	78	56	17	48	52	76	24
Rasmussen	90	6	41	8	92	49
NBC	90	7	40	9	92	50	43	51	53	43	36	80	56	17	48	52	74	26
FOX	89	6	32	5	90	44	41	49	51	41	35	79	56	14	47	53	78	22
PEW	94	6	40	5	92	48	44	50	51	44	37	81	57	17	49	51	76	24
National Journal	91	5	41	6	92	49	42	51	52	44	38	81	55	19	47	53	74	26
NPR	91	4	45	4	91	46	45	55	47	40	40	81	53	17	47	53	74	26
CNN	93	4	41	6	96	49	47	53	50	44	41	73	56	22	47	53	74	26
CBS	92	7	46	6	89	42	47	50	47	45	40		54		47	53	78	22
TIPP	87	7	38	7	85	44	46	50	45	40	39	83	51	8	47	53	78	22
Quinnipiac	94	7	45	5	91	47	42	56	52	38	42	80	53	16	47	53	78	22
Battleground	92	7	46	7	92	52					40	84	55	14			77	23
Survey USA	91	6	33	6	90	52	40	49	51	45	38	78	57	17	47	53	78	22
AP/GfK	93	7	43	7	93	57	47	50	51	48	37	71	58	21	50	50	65	28
WA Times	93	8	42	6	90	49	49	50	47	47	40	80	58	17	47	53	74	26
YouGov															48	52	73	27
ABC	93	5	45	7	95	55	43	52	51	44	40	77	55	22	47	53	76	24
American Research	90	6	43	5	92	50	45	52	51	43	41	84	55	16	48	52	77	23
PPP	88	5	40	8	94	53	40	49	53	45	39	78	57	18	46	54	72	28
UCONN	88	6	37	9	90	38	41	55	53	38	36	83	56	14	48	52	74	26
Averages	91	6	41	6	92	48	44	51.2	50	43.18	39	79.5	55	17	48	53	75	25
2008 Averages	39	32	29				21	27.1	24	22.884	30	17.9	43	3.79	46	54	76	24
2008 Averages	93	7	51	7	93	49	50	57	50	43	45	86	55	14	46	54	76	24
2010 Averages	35	35	29												47	53	78	22
2012 Model	38	34	28	38	34	28
															47	53	78	23
	35	2	11	2.5	31	14									1	1	1	0.9
2012 Model Results	48		47	1			48		46	1.615	46		47	-0.5
	O	RR
Poll Ave	47	47
Poll Scaled	48	49
Poll Affiliation	48	47
Poll Gender	48	46
Poll Ethnicity	46	47
Average	48	47
Key
All Numbers are in %
D - Democrat
R - Republican
I - Independent
O - Obama
RR - Romney
MA - Margin
DO = Democrats for Obama
RO - Republicans for Obama
IO - Independents for Obama
DR - Democrats for Romney
RR - Republicans for Romney
IR - Independents for Romney
MO - Males for Obama
FO - Females for Obama
MR - Males for Romney
FR - Females for Romney
WO - Whites for Obama
NWO - Non Whites for Obama
WR - Whites for Romney
NWR - Non Whites for Romney
F - Female
M - Male
W - Whites
NW - Non Whites

No matter how you crunch the national numbers, the state poll numbers continue to look challenging for Romney. Despite moving to the lead in the national poll averages (My poll averages go back a month so Obama has a slight lead but the trend is to Romney), Obama still has a big lead in the Electoral College. Romney has to win Florida, Virginia, and Ohio and those state polls are a statistical tie – and Ohio still seems to favor Obama. In fact, other than North Carolina (Romney 4 points), Florida (Romney 1 point), Colorado (Tie) and Virginia (Tie) Romney is down in all swing states including – Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. And if Romney loses Virginia and or Ohio, he is going to have to win some combination of NV, NH, MI, WI, and IA to win the election. Right now the electoral count is 294 to 244. Good news for Romney is that polls are tightening in Pennsylvania and Minnesota, but Obama still has a 4 to 5 point lead. This may give Romney more options to get to 270 but time is running out as the Romney camp tries to expand their electoral map chances. My internal polling methods have Romney ahead in Florida by 1.2% and Obama ahead in Ohio by 1.1%. If Romney does not win Ohio, his path to the Presidency is going to be hard. I project the final Electoral College count at this time to be 294 to 244 in favor of Obama.

There is still reason for hope. Republicans have become more excited about Romney as the conservative choice for President and polls indicate they are more energized than Democrats because they do not want another 4 years of Obama (look at Gallup Poll demographics and which groups of people are definitely going to vote http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/US-Presidential-Election-Center.aspx - this says a lot about who is excited about the election). The generic congressional ballot between Democrats and Republicans is even and that is good news for Republicans because they historically trail in this poll. Also, for the first time in the campaign Romney’s favorability ratings are higher than Obama’s. It is all about turnout and maybe Romney can pull off a few state upsets. Are the poll models listed above correct? The average of the last polls by 17 firms has Obama ahead by nearly 0.2% points (47 – 47). However, many of these polls still seem to be oversampling Democrats by large margins when compared to historical trends outlined above. My best guess at an ideological breakdown in 2012 election is 38-D/34-R/29-I (the polls listed above have an average breakdown of 38-D/33-R/28-I). If that is the case when this election modeled using these numbers we get the following:

Obama – 48% / Romney 49% (Romney by 1%)

Also, using the above data in the polls when broken out by party, gender, and race (not all polls give this data) then my models show the following (I am expecting 53% / 47% margin for women and a 77.5% / 22.5% margin for white versus non-white voters in 2012).

By Party: Obama 48% / Romney 47% (0.5% advantage for Obama)

By Gender: Obama 48% / Romney 46% (1.3% advantage for Obama)

By Ethnicity: Obama 47% / Romney 47% (0.5% average for Romney)

There you have it. I have modeled the polls 5 ways and Obama comes out on top in 3. If I average all 5 methods then we are in a dead heat: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (actual spread is less than 0.1%). If Democrats only have a 3% advantage on Election Day, well Romney can win the popular vote hands down. If voter turnout favors Republicans as both Gallup and Rasmussen polls suggest then Romney will win the popular vote easily. But the Electoral College is another story – but if voter turnout favors Republicans Romney should win the Electoral College. At this point I see Romney winning the popular vote 48.9% to 48.8% with 2.3% voting for another candidate.

2012 Election Polls and Models (10/29/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 290; Republican 248 (R +75), Obama at 51.8% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 237; Democrats 201;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	19	8	0.8126885	5.688819387
Alaska		3	25	6	0.8786409	0.878640942
Arizona		11	5.3	23	0.5978023	5.380220369
Arkansas		6	27	4	0.8964676	3.585870202
California	55		-16	43	0.2273324	12.04861878
Colorado	0	9	0	27	0.5	3.5
Connecticut	7		-11.7	39	0.2922832	1.461415986
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1750035	0.175003468
DC	3		-75	51	0.0002286	0.000228596
Florida	0	29	1.8	25	0.5335162	14.40493844
Georgia		16	13	16	0.7282319	10.19524662
Hawaii	4		-29.5	49	0.0840246	0.168049165
Idaho		4	38	3	0.9621083	1.924216648
Illinois	20		-15	42	0.2416728	4.35010976
Indiana		11	13	16	0.7282319	6.554087115
Iowa	6		-2.3	29	0.4572056	1.828822377
Kansas		6	18	9	0.7998592	3.19943662
Kentucky		8	15	14	0.7583272	4.549963413
Louisiana		8	18	9	0.7998592	4.799154931
Massachusetts	11		-16.3	44	0.2231257	2.008131426
Maine	4		-13	41	0.2717681	0.543536197
Maryland	10		-21	46	0.1632213	1.305770161
Michigan	16		-4	34	0.4258636	5.962090027
Minnesota	10		-7.3	35	0.3665066	2.932052437
Mississippi		6	20	7	0.8249965	3.299986128
Missouri		10	10.3	20	0.6848507	5.478805449
Montana		3	10	21	0.6798531	0.679853051
Nebraska		5	14	15	0.7435095	2.23052854
Nevada	6		-2.5	32	0.4535006	1.814002251
New Hampshire	4	0	-1.1	28	0.4795027	0.959005453
New Jersey	14		-10	38	0.3201469	3.841763392
New Mexico	5		-9.3	37	0.3319345	0.995803406
New York	29		-26	48	0.1121929	3.029206951
North Carolina	0	15	3.8	24	0.5704694	7.416102521
North Dakota		3	17.7	11	0.7959097	0.795909699
Ohio	18		-2.3	29	0.4572056	7.315289509
Oklahoma		7	27	4	0.8964676	4.482337752
Oregon	7		-7.5	36	0.3629945	1.814972619
Pennsylvania	20		-3.8	33	0.4295306	7.731550355
Rhode Island	4		-25	47	0.1213591	0.242718117
South Carolina		9	12	18	0.7125145	4.987601351
South Dakota		3	9	22	0.6629615	0.662961477
Tennessee		11	12	18	0.7125145	6.412630308
Texas		38	17	12	0.7865156	28.31456274
Utah		6	52	1	0.9924484	3.969793786
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0419077	0.041907653
Virginia	0	13	1.2	26	0.5223588	5.745946701
Washington	12		-12.3	40	0.2827254	2.82725411
West Virginia		5	16	13	0.7726676	2.318002711
Wisconsin	10		-2.3	29	0.4572056	3.657644755
Wyoming		3	40	2	0.9691991	0.969199142
			0
Total	281	257	21.4001		0.5314002	0.481562674	0.511715563	0.495
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	3	0.7128569				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	9	0.3234609				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	-1	8	0.4827664				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	12.7	4	0.7084241	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	25	2	0.8599933				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	53	1	0.9889955				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0708902				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.8	7	0.4862116				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1820863				-1
			0
			23.142		0.5286987		1
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	0.7	8	0.5166831			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-20.6	28	0.109159			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-3.1	17	0.4265167			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-5.5	20	0.3712031			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-17.5	27	0.1478351			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	5	4	0.6174497			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-5.7	21	0.3666948	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	10	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-13	24	0.2186228			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-26.5	29	0.0566441			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-5	20	0.3825503			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	-31	30	0.0319774			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	0.3	8	0.5071516	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	3	0.8451578	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3.7	4.8	0.5874944			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-41.4	33	0.0066809			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-17.3	26	0.1506121			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-9	23	0.2953502			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	4	0.6174497			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-5.4	19	0.373464			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-5.8	22	0.3644475			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	-27.5	30	0.050156			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	26	2	0.9398727			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	41	1	0.9928587			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-1	15	0.4761742			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-17	25	0.1548422			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	32	0.0098883			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-2.4	16	0.4429796			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	7	0.5238258			1
			0
			16.7342		0.396477		1
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	25	7	15	15	15	12.9	2	0.9576801
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.909344
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	29	8	15	15	15	13.5	1	0.9644298
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	1	3	0	-5	-5	-1.3	80	0.4310214
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.909344
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-6.1	3	-10	-10	-10	-6.01	104	0.2108797
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-2.5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.25	91	0.3319859
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-15	-10	-8.7	115	0.1224245
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	72	0.5846782
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	101	0.2393283
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	4.5	5	0	0	10	3.45	63	0.6776619
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1044632
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	4	3	10	15	10	8	42	0.857551
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	3	0.9539358
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	1	-3	-5	-5	5	-1.5	81	0.4205413
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	88	0.3640895
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	37	0.8748425
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	5	5	5	3.6	62	0.6848205
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	96	0.2964319
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1747117
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	2	-1	0	-5	5	0	75	0.5
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.6942579
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9136313
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	0	5	1.5	74	0.5794587
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3.1	90	0.339296
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	-1	4	10	10	10	6.7	50	0.8147686
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	-13	-3	0	-15	-15	-7.9	110	0.1454809
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	3	4	-5	-5	-5	-1.9	83	0.3997563
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	6	7	5	5	15	7	47	0.8252883
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	9	1	15	15	15	10.1	13	0.911507
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	17	5	10	10	10	8.7	36	0.8775755
Florida 18	Murphy	West	6	1	0	0	5	1.8	71	0.5950716
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	20	0.9049007
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	-6	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6.6	105	0.1888237
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	-3	10	5	5	5	4.7	56	0.7350836
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	-9.5	-5	-10	-10	-5	-6.95	107	0.1764381
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	3	-8	-5	-5	5	-2.3	86	0.3792516
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	-1	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.3	92	0.3295632
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-5	-2	0	0	-5	-1.9	83	0.3997563
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	-9	-1	0	0	5	-0.1	77	0.4946674
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	-1	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.3	92	0.3295632
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	10	10	7.4	46	0.8387119
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	10	5.4	51	0.7648012
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	111	0.142449
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-5	-5	-15	-5.8	102	0.2190808
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6655843
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	4	4	5	5	5	4.2	58	0.7127461
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-7.3	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.93	95	0.2996757
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	133	0.068053
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	4	0.9292731
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	105	0.1888237
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.090656
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	3.7	-7	0	0	5	-0.03	76	0.4984002
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.909344
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	-9	3	0	-5	-5	-2.3	86	0.3792516
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	9	6	10	10	15	9.1	31	0.8880877
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	28	0.8906118
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	8	1	10	10	10	7	47	0.8252883
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	116	0.1197337
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	8	1	10	10	15	8	42	0.857551
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	33	0.8855222
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	5.5	8	5	10	15	8.15	40	0.8620183
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-4	-3	0	0	-5	-2	85	0.3946017
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	111	0.142449
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	7	7	10	10	10	8.1	41	0.8605399
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	13.5	2	5	10	10	6.75	49	0.8165487
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	9	0.9177652
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0782517
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.900299
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0707269
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	34	0.8802663
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.090656
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-6	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3151795
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.099701
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	12	5	5	5	5	5.2	54	0.756503
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	7.5	2	0	0	5	2.15	70	0.6130955
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	11	-1	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6508627
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.900299
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-13	1	-5	-5	-10	-5.1	99	0.2477047
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-4	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	97	0.2872539
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	-11	-5	-10	-10	-10	-8.1	113	0.1394601
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	5	3	15	10	15	9.1	31	0.8880877
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	1	7	0	0	-5	0.5	74	0.526644
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	7	6	15	15	15	10.9	6	0.9274462
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	2	0	5	0	5	2.2	69	0.6156515
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	-2	-3	-5	0	-5	-2.8	89	0.3540967
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-13	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.3	134	0.0654578
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.909344
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	8	0	0	5	10	3.8	60	0.6942579
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	9	-2	-5	-5	5	-0.5	79	0.473356
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	4	0.9292731
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	0	-5	3.1	65	0.660704
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	2	12	10	10	10	8.6	37	0.8748425
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	37	0.8748425
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	14	0.909344
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	5	10	10	10	15	9.5	25	0.8979381
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.7035681
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	15	10	7.8	44	0.851444
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	-5	-0.4	78	0.4786791
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	10	5	10	7.8	44	0.851444
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.090656
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1144778
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.900299
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	19.5	6	-15	-15	-15	-5.85	103	0.2171117
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	21	0.900299
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	28	0.8906118
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	2	-1	5	5	5	3	66	0.6557965
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-7	6	0	-5	-5	-1.5	81	0.4205413
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9136313
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	26	0.8955368
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9136313
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	109	0.148556
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	28	0.8906118
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	4	10	10	10	15	9.4	26	0.8955368
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.099701
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	4	-13	0	-5	-10	-5.2	100	0.243497
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	8	0.9217483
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	3	8	10	15	15	9.9	19	0.907142
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	2.5	6	0	0	5	2.45	68	0.6283544
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.099701
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1144778
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	2.5	13	0	5	5	4.85	55	0.7416085
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	13	5	5	5	5	5.3	53	0.7606717
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1044632
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	1	-3	-5	-10	-5	-4.5	98	0.2737446
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	-15	-5	-10	-15	-15	-10.5	130	0.0802246
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1144778
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	34	0.8802663
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.090656
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	7	0.9255833
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	114	0.1251575
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0950993
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	3.5	0	5	5	10	4.35	57	0.7195401
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	10	10	5.4	51	0.7648012