Thursday, October 18, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (10/19/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 294; Republican 244 (R +71), Obama at 53.5% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 235; Democrats 203;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

18

7

0.811192

5.678344253

Alaska

3

25

5

0.8897902

0.889790221

Arizona

11

5.3

22

0.6024862

5.422375755

Arkansas

6

21

6

0.8483417

3.39336683

California

55

-17.4

43

0.1968608

10.43362313

Colorado

0

9

0.6

26

0.5117312

3.58211818

Connecticut

7

-13

38

0.2619924

1.309962203

Delaware

3

-20

44

0.1634615

0.163461478

DC

3

-75

51

0.0001183

0.000118349

Florida

0

29

2

25

0.539047

14.55426843

Georgia

16

12.7

15

0.7331967

10.26475368

Hawaii

4

-29.5

49

0.0740903

0.148180671

Idaho

4

34

2

0.9521992

1.904398473

Illinois

20

-15

40

0.2310943

4.159696522

Indiana

11

12

18

0.7218004

6.496203784

Iowa

6

-2.7

32

0.4473559

1.789423415

Kansas

6

17

9

0.7976569

3.19062747

Kentucky

8

14

12

0.7537164

4.522298435

Louisiana

8

16

11

0.7835575

4.701345186

Massachusetts

11

-20.4

45

0.1586704

1.428034031

Maine

4

-15

40

0.2310943

0.462188502

Maryland

10

-21

46

0.1516583

1.21326634

Michigan

16

-4.4

33

0.4146214

5.804700007

Minnesota

10

-9.3

36

0.3242476

2.593980662

Mississippi

6

18

7

0.811192

3.244768145

Missouri

10

5.2

23

0.6005944

4.804755264

Montana

3

12.4

17

0.7283416

0.728341584

Nebraska

5

12.5

16

0.7299648

2.189894487

Nevada

6

-1.6

29

0.4687444

1.874977672

New Hampshire

4

-0.7

27

0.4863143

0.972628698

New Jersey

14

-14.3

39

0.2416714

2.900056327

New Mexico

5

-9.3

36

0.3242476

0.972742748

New York

29

-26.3

48

0.0986756

2.664241867

North Carolina

0

15

4.7

24

0.5911009

7.68431108

North Dakota

3

14

12

0.7537164

0.753716406

Ohio

18

-1.7

30

0.4667953

7.468725254

Oklahoma

7

29

4

0.9224113

4.61205638

Oregon

7

-8.5

35

0.3384707

1.692353446

Pennsylvania

20

-4.4

33

0.4146214

7.463185723

Rhode Island

4

-25

47

0.1102098

0.220419558

South Carolina

9

10

19

0.6879915

4.815940731

South Dakota

3

6

21

0.6156589

0.615658941

Tennessee

11

7

20

0.6342443

5.708198639

Texas

38

17

9

0.7976569

28.71564723

Utah

6

42

1

0.9802382

3.920952926

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0348688

0.034868771

Virginia

13

0

-0.8

28

0.4843602

5.327962148

Washington

12

-16.3

42

0.2121541

2.12154067

West Virginia

5

14

12

0.7537164

2.261149217

Wisconsin

10

-2.3

31

0.4551191

3.640953035

Wyoming

3

30

3

0.9292863

0.929286252

0

Total

294

244

20.4013

0.5151441

0.46539278

0.515631539

0.489

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

Cragg

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

3

0.762357

1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.6

9

0.2802473

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

2.7

4

0.5589361

Gain

1

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

14

2

0.7790001

Gain

1

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9727003

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

11

0.0309413

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-3.3

8

0.4280967

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

10

0.1244078

-1

0

18.2097

0.4942442

2

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

1.3

6

0.5368593

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-19

28

0.088143

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

-3.4

19

0.4043952

-1

Delaware

Carper

Wade

0

8

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-6.7

22

0.3167322

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-17.5

27

0.1064702

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

5

3

0.6390284

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-2.5

17

0.4293884

Gain

-1

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

8

0.5

Gain

0

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-13

24

0.1774195

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-25.3

29

0.0358777

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

8

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-2.3

17

0.4349848

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

-28

30

0.0231399

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

1.7

5

0.5481519

Gain

1

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

17

2

0.8868479

Gain

1

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

3

4

0.5845384

1

New York

Gillibrand

Long

-40

33

0.0022073

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-14.3

25

0.1543941

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-9

23

0.2609064

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

0

8

0.5

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-5

20

0.3609716

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-5.4

21

0.3503662

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

Hinkley

-27.5

30

0.0251592

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

8

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

26

1

0.9678784

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

0

8

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

MacGovern

0

8

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-2.2

15

0.437788

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-17

26

0.1131521

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

32

0.0027539

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

-3

18

0.4154616

-1

Wyoming

Chesnut

Barrasso

1

7

0.5283698

1

0

14.0504

0.3736783

1

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

25

7

15

15

15

12.9

2

0.9589206

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9110929

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

29

8

15

15

15

13.5

1

0.9655554

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

1

3

0

-5

-5

-1.3

80

0.4304703

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9110929

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-6.1

3

-10

-10

-10

-6.01

105

0.2090112

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

-5

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.5

93

0.3185953

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-10

-10

-7.7

109

0.1497311

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

73

0.5853512

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

101

0.2375569

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

4.5

5

0

5

10

4.45

56

0.7256284

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

120

0.1026376

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

44

0.8471088

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

3

0.9552338

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

1

-3

-5

-5

5

-1.5

82

0.4199086

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4146488

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

34

0.8767441

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

62

0.6861993

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

95

0.2949412

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.1727737

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

-5

-5

-2.2

87

0.3834419

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.6956941

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9153515

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

3

1

0

0

5

1.5

75

0.5800914

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-6

2.5

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

91

0.3380723

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

-1

4

10

10

10

6.7

48

0.8166934

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

-9

-3

0

-10

-15

-6.5

106

0.1905462

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

2

4

-5

-5

-5

-2

86

0.3937713

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

11

7

5

10

15

8.5

39

0.8739759

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

9

1

15

15

15

10.1

13

0.9132417

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

17

5

10

10

10

8.7

33

0.8794695

Florida 18

Murphy

West

4.5

1

0

0

5

1.65

72

0.5879754

Florida 7

Kendall

Mica

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

19

0.9066769

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

1

-5

-10

-5

-10

-5.9

104

0.2132968

Georgia 12

Barrow

Anderson

0

10

5

5

5

5

54

0.7497674

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

-9

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7.9

111

0.1435426

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

5

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.1

96

0.2903093

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

2

-6

0

-5

-5

-3

90

0.3430127

Illinois 12

Enyart

Plummer

-5

-2

0

0

-5

-1.9

85

0.3989646

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

0

5

5

1.8

71

0.5958241

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

3

-6

0

-5

-5

-2.9

89

0.3479801

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

10

5

10

6.4

49

0.8057691

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

52

0.7665887

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

112

0.1405141

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-5

-5

-15

-5.8

103

0.2172368

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

64

0.6668404

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

4

4

5

5

5

4.2

58

0.7142884

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-7.3

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.93

94

0.2982038

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-15.5

-3

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

133

0.0664866

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

5

0.9308654

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

107

0.1869047

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0889071

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

3.7

-7

0

-5

5

-1.03

79

0.4448064

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9110929

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

-9

3

0

0

-5

-1.3

80

0.4304703

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

8

6

10

10

15

9

29

0.88739

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

26

0.8924595

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

0

1

10

10

10

6.2

50

0.7982706

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

116

0.1178479

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

45

0.8340294

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

29

0.88739

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

2

8

5

10

15

7.8

42

0.853385

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-1

-3

0

0

5

0.3

76

0.516123

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

112

0.1405141

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

7

7

10

10

10

8.1

41

0.8624709

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

13.5

2

5

10

10

6.75

47

0.8184762

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

9

0.9194552

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

131

0.0765932

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

20

0.9021008

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

132

0.0691346

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

31

0.8821521

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0889071

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-8.7

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.87

98

0.2558348

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0978992

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

12

5

5

5

5

5.2

53

0.7582574

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

7.5

2

0

0

5

2.15

69

0.6139832

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

11

-1

0

5

5

2.9

67

0.6520199

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

15

10

15

8.6

34

0.8767441

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-13

1

-5

-5

-10

-5.1

99

0.2459679

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-5.5

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.35

97

0.2788809

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

-10

-5

-10

-10

-10

-8

112

0.1405141

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

0

3

15

10

15

8.6

34

0.8767441

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

1

7

0

0

-5

0.5

75

0.5268587

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

9.5

6

15

15

15

11.15

4

0.9335134

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

1

0

5

0

5

2.1

70

0.6114033

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

-2

-3

-5

0

-5

-2.8

88

0.3529737

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

-12

-5

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

134

0.0656216

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9110929

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

7

0

0

5

10

3.7

61

0.6909626

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

8

-2

-5

-5

5

-0.6

78

0.4677802

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

5

0.9308654

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

0

-5

3.1

65

0.6619277

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

2

12

10

10

10

8.6

34

0.8767441

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

34

0.8767441

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

14

0.9110929

North Dakota 1

Gullleson

Cramer

5

10

10

10

15

9.5

24

0.8997521

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

59

0.7050588

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

46

0.820248

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

-5

-0.4

77

0.4785072

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

0

14

10

5

10

7.8

42

0.853385

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0889071

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.11261

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

20

0.9021008

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

22

6

-15

-15

-15

-5.6

102

0.2252419

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

20

0.9021008

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

40

0.8654122

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

2

-1

5

5

5

3

66

0.6569873

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-7

6

0

-5

-5

-1.5

82

0.4199086

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9153515

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

25

0.8973624

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9153515

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

110

0.146615

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

26

0.8924595

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

1

10

10

10

15

9.1

28

0.8899457

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0978992

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

4

-13

0

-5

-10

-5.2

100

0.2417426

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

8

0.9234068

Texas 14

Lampson

Weber

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

20

0.9021008

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

2.5

6

0

0

5

2.45

68

0.6293534

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0978992

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.11261

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

3.5

13

0

5

5

4.95

55

0.7476204

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

15

5

5

5

5

5.5

51

0.7706938

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

120

0.1026376

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

92

0.3331596

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

-15

-5

-10

-15

-15

-10.5

130

0.0785501

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.11261

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

31

0.8821521

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0889071

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

7

0.9272092

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

115

0.1232559

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

125

0.0933231

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

3.5

0

5

5

5

3.35

63

0.6741558

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

10

4.4

57

0.7233783

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