Thursday, October 4, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (10/5/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 347; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 56.1% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 232; Democrats 206;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 234; Democrats 204

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

18

7

0.8121122

5.684785263

Alaska

3

25

5

0.8906792

0.890679172

Arizona

11

7.3

20

0.6402785

5.762506265

Arkansas

6

21

6

0.8492739

3.397095768

California

55

-20

45

0.1625286

8.614017578

Colorado

9

-2.9

25

0.4432647

3.102852709

Connecticut

7

-13.7

39

0.2501171

1.250585733

Delaware

3

-20

45

0.1625286

0.162528634

DC

3

-75

51

0.0001119

0.000111931

Florida

29

0

-3.2

27

0.4374416

11.81092257

Georgia

16

13.3

15

0.7435854

10.41019591

Hawaii

4

-27

49

0.0919966

0.183993198

Idaho

4

34

2

0.9528365

1.905672979

Illinois

20

-15

40

0.2302302

4.144144121

Indiana

11

12

17

0.7225626

6.503063094

Iowa

6

-3.7

28

0.4277671

1.71106827

Kansas

6

17

9

0.7985634

3.194253432

Kentucky

8

14

13

0.7545515

4.52730917

Louisiana

8

16

10

0.7844453

4.706672017

Massachusetts

11

-24

47

0.1188129

1.069315652

Maine

4

-15

40

0.2302302

0.460460458

Maryland

10

-19

44

0.1749167

1.399333485

Michigan

16

-8.8

36

0.332503

4.655041722

Minnesota

10

-8.4

34

0.3396825

2.717460124

Mississippi

6

18

7

0.8121122

3.248448722

Missouri

10

7.3

20

0.6402785

5.122227791

Montana

3

10.3

18

0.6938598

0.693859794

Nebraska

5

12.5

16

0.7307471

2.192241265

Nevada

6

-3.8

30

0.4258372

1.703348694

New Hampshire

4

-3

26

0.4413222

0.88264443

New Jersey

14

-12.8

38

0.264401

3.172812043

New Mexico

5

-10

37

0.3113387

0.934016204

New York

29

-26.3

48

0.0978127

2.640943297

North Carolina

15

0

-1

24

0.4803776

6.24490874

North Dakota

3

15

11

0.7697698

0.769769771

Ohio

18

-5.6

31

0.3914456

6.263130251

Oklahoma

7

29

4

0.923206

4.616029927

Oregon

7

-8.5

35

0.337882

1.689410218

Pennsylvania

20

-8

33

0.3469207

6.24457251

Rhode Island

4

-17

43

0.2014366

0.402873284

South Carolina

9

10

19

0.6886613

4.820628857

South Dakota

3

6

23

0.616093

0.616093023

Tennessee

11

7

22

0.6347428

5.712685603

Texas

38

15

11

0.7697698

27.71171176

Utah

6

42

1

0.9806164

3.922465479

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0343324

0.034332384

Virginia

13

0

-3.7

28

0.4277671

4.705437744

Washington

12

-15.3

42

0.2257698

2.257698395

West Virginia

5

14

13

0.7545515

2.263654585

Wisconsin

10

-7.8

32

0.350561

2.804488361

Wyoming

3

30

3

0.9300519

0.930051903

0

Total

347

191

20.3228

0.5026017

0.43876909

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

Cragg

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.7639552

1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.6

9

0.2788271

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

-3

7

0.4341012

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

1.4

4

0.5308631

Gain

1

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

12.4

3

0.7536103

Gain

1

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9735657

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

11

0.0300078

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-3

7

0.4341012

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

10

0.1226998

-1

0

18.0786

0.4837938

2

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

3.5

3

0.6144145

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-18.5

29

0.062108

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

-2.4

17

0.420961

-1

Delaware

Carper

Wade

0

7

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-8.8

24

0.2323091

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-12

25

0.1593391

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

0

7

0.5

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-1.8

16

0.4405493

Gain

-1

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

7

0.5

Gain

0

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-13

27

0.1400097

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-23

30

0.0279858

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

7

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-5.3

22

0.3298164

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

-28

30

0.0099893

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

1.7

4

0.5561704

Gain

1

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

17

1

0.9211234

Gain

1

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

2

4

0.5659988

1

New York

Gillibrand

Long

-40

33

0.0004438

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-12.4

26

0.1514072

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-8

23

0.253094

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

2

0.6611086

Gain

1

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-7.9

22

0.2557592

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-7.2

21

0.2748177

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

Hinkley

0

7

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

7

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

0

7

0.5

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

0

7

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

MacGovern

0

7

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-3.6

18

0.3824115

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-13.5

28

0.1309684

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

32

0.0005959

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

-5

19

0.3388914

-1

Wyoming

Chesnut

Barrasso

1

6

0.5331132

1

0

12.034

0.3625268

2

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

25

7

15

15

15

12.9

2

0.9597866

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

13

0.9123239

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

29

8

15

15

15

13.5

1

0.9663397

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

-3

3

0

-5

-5

-1.7

83

0.4088963

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

13

0.9123239

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-5

3

-10

-10

-10

-5.9

105

0.2119797

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

-5

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.5

93

0.3176352

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-10

-10

-7.7

109

0.1483565

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

71

0.5858307

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

101

0.2362989

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

7

5

5

5

10

5.7

51

0.7800811

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

114

0.1274825

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

41

0.8484847

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

3

0.9561409

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

5

-1.6

81

0.4141693

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

81

0.4141693

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

33

0.8780869

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

5

5

10

4.6

55

0.7334873

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.293881

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

107

0.1714009

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

-5

-5

-2.2

86

0.3827962

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

59

0.6967158

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9165616

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

3

1

0

0

5

1.5

74

0.5805422

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-6

2.5

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

89

0.3372012

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

46

0.8216156

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

-14

-3

0

-10

-15

-7

107

0.1714009

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

0

4

0

-5

-5

-1.2

78

0.435407

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

36

0.8725175

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

37

0.8667736

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

10

7

45

0.8285991

Florida 18

Murphy

West

5

1

0

5

5

2.7

68

0.6427822

Florida 7

Kendall

Mica

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

18

0.9079277

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.293881

Georgia 12

Barrow

Anderson

0

10

5

5

5

5

54

0.7509882

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

-14

-5

-10

-10

-10

-8.4

114

0.1274825

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

98

0.2665127

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

91

0.3322656

Illinois 12

Enyart

Plummer

-7

-2

0

0

-5

-2.1

85

0.3879779

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

66

0.6478259

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

13

-6

0

-5

-5

-1.9

84

0.3984007

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

10

5

10

6.4

48

0.8071198

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

52

0.767858

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

111

0.139146

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-5

-5

-15

-5.8

104

0.2159282

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

64

0.6677344

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

4

4

5

5

5

4.2

56

0.7153851

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-9.5

9

-5

-5

-15

-4.15

96

0.2869183

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-15.5

-3

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

133

0.0653874

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

5

0.9319832

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

106

0.1855445

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0876761

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

2.5

-7

0

-5

-5

-3.15

90

0.3347298

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

13

0.9123239

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

-9

3

0

0

-5

-1.3

79

0.4300776

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

8

6

10

10

15

9

28

0.8887078

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

25

0.8937625

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

0

1

10

5

15

6.2

50

0.7996095

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

117

0.1165168

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

43

0.8354053

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

28

0.8887078

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

2

8

10

10

15

8.8

30

0.8834832

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-2

-3

0

0

5

0.2

75

0.5108116

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

111

0.139146

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

5.7

7

10

10

10

7.97

39

0.8599509

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

17

2

5

10

10

7.1

44

0.8320244

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

9

0.9206435

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

131

0.0754276

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

19

0.9033703

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

132

0.0680168

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8834832

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0876761

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-8.7

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.87

99

0.2546317

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0966297

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

12

5

5

5

5

5.2

53

0.7595036

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

11.5

2

0

0

5

2.55

69

0.6351698

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

16.5

-1

0

5

5

3.45

61

0.6799453

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

15

10

15

8.6

33

0.8780869

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-13

1

-5

-5

-10

-5.1

100

0.2447342

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-5.5

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.35

97

0.2777582

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

-10

-5

-10

-10

-10

-8

111

0.139146

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

41

0.8484847

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

2

7

0

0

-5

0.6

74

0.5324032

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

9.5

6

15

15

15

11.15

4

0.9346126

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

5

0

5

1.6

71

0.5858307

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

-5

0

-5

-2.6

88

0.3622866

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

-12

-5

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

134

0.0645286

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

13

0.9123239

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

5

5

2

70

0.6068203

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

8.5

-2

-5

-5

-5

-2.55

87

0.3648302

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

5

0.9319832

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

0

-5

3.1

65

0.6627988

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

-1.5

12

10

5

5

6.25

49

0.8015034

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

33

0.8780869

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

13

0.9123239

North Dakota 1

Gullleson

Cramer

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

24

0.8962268

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.706119

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

46

0.8216156

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

-5

-0.4

77

0.4783846

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

0

14

10

5

10

7.8

40

0.8547579

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0876761

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

118

0.1112922

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

19

0.9033703

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

22

6

-15

-15

-15

-5.6

102

0.2239517

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

19

0.9033703

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

37

0.8667736

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

66

0.6478259

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-7

6

0

-5

-5

-1.5

80

0.4194578

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9165616

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

23

0.8986493

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9165616

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

110

0.1452421

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

25

0.8937625

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

1

10

10

10

15

9.1

27

0.8912563

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0966297

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

-11

-13

0

-5

-5

-5.7

103

0.2199189

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

8

0.9245724

Texas 14

Lampson

Weber

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

19

0.9033703

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

-5

6

0

0

-5

-0.3

76

0.483785

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0966297

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

118

0.1112922

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-1

13

0

0

5

3.5

60

0.6823648

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.706119

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

121

0.1013507

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

91

0.3322656

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

-15

-5

-10

-15

-15

-10.5

130

0.0773731

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

118

0.1112922

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8834832

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0876761

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

7

0.9283513

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

116

0.1219131

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

125

0.0920723

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

4

0

5

5

5

3.4

62

0.6775181

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

62

0.6775181

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