Tuesday, September 30, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (10/2/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

4.4

15

0.6189146

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

-19

35

0.0956373

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

5

14

0.634539

1

Rep Gain

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

1.8

19

0.5492647

1

Rep Gain

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

1

21

0.5274176

1

Rep Gain

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

0.3

23

0.5082312

1

Rep Gain

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-14

31

0.1677943

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-1.6

25

0.4561857

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-10

28

0.2457898

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-13

30

0.1856239

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-26

36

0.0368657

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-10

28

0.2457898

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Raimondo

Fung

-18

33

0.107851

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-18

33

0.107851

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Ducey

4

16

0.6083878

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

27

3

0.9683484

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Walker

Parnell

-2.5

27

0.4317385

-1

Dem Gain

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

0

24

0.5

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

0.4

22

0.5109743

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

18

6

0.892149

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

11

11

0.7753488

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

2.8

17

0.5763575

1

Rep Hold

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-1.7

26

0.4534594

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

2.4

18

0.5655562

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

10

13

0.7542102

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

23

5

0.943168

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

11

11

0.7753488

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

15

9

0.8488932

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

16

8

0.864438

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-16

32

0.135562

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

17

7

0.8788501

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

29

1

0.9769576

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

26

4

0.9631343

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

14

10

0.8322057

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

1.2

20

0.5328897

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

28

2

0.9729376

1

Rep Hold

1

0

14.5391

0.5608502

10

1

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9939595

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

4.7

18

0.5932521

1

Rep Gain

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

3.6

19

0.5716999

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

Wade

-19

33

0.1701144

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

3.4

20

0.5677562

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-34

36

0.043944

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-13

29

0.2570262

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Herr

-25

35

0.1047601

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

33

3

0.9511846

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-4.7

25

0.4067479

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-10.5

27

0.2990787

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

13.5

14

0.7509995

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

5.2

30

0.60296

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

30

3

0.9339489

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Orman

Roberts

-5

25

0.4009159

-1

Dem Gain

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

22

7

0.8652684

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

0.8

21

0.5160158

1

Rep Gain

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

5

17

0.5990841

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-12

28

0.2734721

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-15

32

0.2257455

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

27

6

0.9123353

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

29

5

0.9272578

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

17

9

0.8032598

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-23

34

0.1241486

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

16

11

0.7890494

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

17

9

0.8032598

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

18

8

0.8168745

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

15

13

0.7742545

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-14

30

0.2411101

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-14

30

0.2411101

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

17

9

0.8032598

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-4.5

24

0.4106476

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

36

2

0.9646217

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

13.5

14

0.7509995

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-3.5

23

0.4302711

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

2.2

21

0.5439658

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

19.9221

0.5678522

8

7

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

14

8

5

5

5

6

30

0.8191611

Arkansas 4

Witt

Westerman

16

15

10

10

15

11.6

2

0.9610948

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Tobin

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

44

0.4878717

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-8

3

0

0

-5

-1.2

47

0.4276209

Arizona 9

Sinema

Rogers

0

1

-5

-10

-10

-4.8

63

0.2327751

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

72

0.1062655

California 7

Bera

Ose

-4

0

0

-5

-5

-2.4

53

0.3576046

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0809567

California 10

Eggman

Denham

10

1

10

10

15

8.2

16

0.8937345

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.076492

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

19

-2

10

10

15

8.5

14

0.9018638

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

22

0.8760405

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-15

-5

15

-1.8

51

0.3921761

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

59

0.2817302

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

60

0.2715555

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-10

-5

-2.8

55

0.3351703

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

3.5

-2

0

0

5

0.95

39

0.5574185

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

5

5

1.8

38

0.6078239

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

68

0.1239595

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

-2

6

5

5

5

4

33

0.7284445

Florida 26

Garcia

Cubelo

4

1

0

0

5

1.6

38

0.5960926

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

16

0.8937345

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

8

0.9190433

Florida 18

Murphy

Domino

-22

3

-5

-10

-10

-6.6

67

0.1578364

Hawaii 1

Takai

Djou

4

-15

-10

-10

-15

-9.6

79

0.072217

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

44

0.4878717

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

68

0.1239595

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

1

-8

0

-5

5

-1.5

49

0.4098063

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

74

0.0955304

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

0

-5

-2

52

0.380542

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

19

0

5

10

10

6.9

27

0.8529106

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-10

-5

-5.4

65

0.2058358

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

10

10

10

7.2

25

0.8631556

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

-2.5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8.25

73

0.1048778

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

-5

0

0

0

-5

-1.5

49

0.4098063

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

11

5

10

10

15

9.1

9

0.9167384

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

40

0.5484012

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

2

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

56

0.3133091

Massachusetts 6

Moulton

Tisei

-1

-4

-5

-10

-10

-5.9

66

0.1848675

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

10

15

5

6.4

29

0.8347194

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

33

0.7284445

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

10

0.9095279

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

15

5

10

6.6

28

0.8421636

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

10

0.9095279

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

71

0.1178458

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

22

2

15

10

15

10.6

4

0.9464652

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

47

0.4276209

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

-4.5

6

-10

-5

-5

-3.25

57

0.31062

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

15

0.8992063

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

3

1

0

5

-5

0.5

42

0.5302962

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

10

0.9095279

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

-10

2

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

58

0.2920851

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

0

-5

5

0.4

43

0.5242453

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

-1

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.1

61

0.2665378

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

24

-1

10

5

15

8.2

16

0.8937345

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

13

0

5

5

10

5.3

32

0.7898072

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-7

-5

-10

-5

-15

-7.7

70

0.1208754

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

31

0.8027156

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

22

0.8760405

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

-1

4

5

0

5

2.7

36

0.6592722

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

46

0.4515988

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Garcia

-10

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

62

0.2421721

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

19

0.8880514

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

6

0.9357807

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

19

0.8880514

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-15

-5

-4.8

63

0.2327751

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

0

15

10

15

15

11

3

0.9527691

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

5

0.9430724

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

13

0.9044696

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

21

0.8821542

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

76

0.0856155

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

24

0.8664596

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

15

15

5

7.2

25

0.8631556

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

53

0.3576046

Utah 4

Owens

Love

11

16

10

15

15

12.3

1

0.9692549

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

35

0.6973863

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

75

0.0904721

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

12

11

5

15

10

9.4

7

0.923508

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

0

-5

0.6

41

0.53634

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 252; Democrats 186

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 30 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 3 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 199

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