Election Summary of My Model Predictions

I have summarized my midterm election predictions with the actual numbers in parenthesis next to the predicted value. The Gaussian Model worked the best.

Election Polls:

•House Prediction: Republicans gain 48 (63) seats – Total: 227 Republicans 208 Democrats
•Senate Prediction: Republicans gain 8 (6) seats – Total: 49 Republicans 51 Democrats (Including 2 independents)
•Governorships: Republicans gain 8 (8) seats – Total: 32 Republicans 18 Democrats and 1 Independent

Gaussian (Bell Curve) Model:

•House Prediction: Republicans gain 65 (63) seats – Total: 244 Republicans 191 Democrats
•Senate Prediction: Republicans gain 7 (6) seats – Total: 48 Republicans 52 Democrats
•Governorships: Republicans gain 8 (8) seats – Total: 32 Republicans 18 Democrats

Linear Regression Error Model:

•House Prediction: Republicans gain 37 (63) seats – Total: 216 Republicans 219 Democrats
•Senate Prediction: Republicans gain 10 (6) seats – Total: 51 Republicans 49 Democrats
•Governorships: Republicans gain 3 (8) seats – Total: 27 Republicans 23 Democrats
•Incumbent Voter Percent: 44.4% (D) 49.6% (R ) 6% (I) [43.6% (D) 49.9% (R ) 6.5% (I)]
•Election Turnout Percent: 35% (41%)

Average of the Three Models (Final Projections):

•House Prediction: Republicans gain 50 (63) seats – Total: 229 Republicans 206 Democrats

•Senate Prediction: Republicans gain 8 (6) seats – Total: 49 Republicans 51 Democrats

•Governorships: Republicans gain 6 (8) seats – Total: 30 Republicans 20 Democrats

•Incumbent Voter Percent: 44.4% (D) 49.6% (R ) 6% (I)[43.6% (D) 49.9% (R ) 6.5% (I)]

•Election Turnout Percent: 35% (41%) (Modern advances in early voting should render this prediction wrong)