What Impact will the 2010 Midterm Elections have on 2012?

It is impossible to predict what impact the 2010 midterm elections will have on the 2012 elections, but we can certainly make some educated guesses.

Both liberals and conservatives alike feel the 2010 midterm outcome favors them. For instance, liberals are convinced that Republicans are now vulnerable since they have control over the House of Representatives. Thus, they too will be held accountable and receive the brunt of public criticism if the economy does not improve. And Democrats also argue that many conservative new comers may be vulnerable in the 2012 elections because they are in moderate districts. This all may be true, but in my opinion, the 2010 midterm results should favor Republicans in the 2012 election cycle for the following reasons.

First, unlike previous elections when over 10% of the house seats changed party affiliation, the Senate majority remained with the Democrats. Yes, the Republicans missed a golden opportunity to gain control of the Senate, but this may work to their advantage in 2012. If, for instance, economic conditions do not improve, it will be hard to solely blame conservatives since they do not have complete control of the legislative branch. And if this is the case, Republicans cannot be solely to blame for bipartisan bickering. Since bills originate in the House, Republicans can pass popular spending cuts and repeal the unpopular healthcare legislation and therefore; force Senate Democrats to block the bills. This will paint Democrats as being the unreasonable bipartisan party.

Secondly, in 2012, there will only be 11 governorships up for reelection and 8 of those seats are currently held by Democrats and only 3 are held by Republicans. The 3 Republican seats are in solid red states: North Dakota (Jack Dalrymple), Utah (Gary Herbert), and Indiana (Mitch Daniels – term limited). Of the 8 Democratic seats up for reelection several are in red to moderate states: Missouri (Jay Nixon), North Carolina (Beverly Perdue), and Montana (Brian Schwetzer). These governorships could be vulnerable in 2012. In 2012, of the 33 Senate seats up for reelection, 24 are held by Democrats. And many of the Democratic seats up for reelection are in red leaning states: Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Virginia (Jim Webb), Nebraska (Ben Nelson), Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Montana (Jon Tester), North Dakota (Kent Conrad), and even West Virginia (newly elected Joe Manchin). Heck, even independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut could be the target of a strong Republican challenge. Republicans will also have to defend a few seats in blue territory such as Scott Brown in Massachusetts and scandal plagued John Ensign in Nevada. These two candidates will surely be contested vigorously by Democrats.

Thirdly, elections have consequences, and the fact that Republicans now control 30 governorships; this is the key to Republicans keeping control of the House of Representatives for the next decade. This is true because Governors and state legislations control redrawing congressional districts following the 2010 census. And we should not lose sight of the fact in the 2010 midterm elections Republican won a total of 680 seats in state houses (an average of nearly 14 seats gained per state!). This will enable Republicans to redraw favorable districts to defend their majorities in the next election cycle.

Thus, it is easy to surmise that Republicans have the upper hand in 2012 Governor (only 3 of 11 candidates up for reelection are Republicans), Senate (only 9 of 33 candidates up for reelection are Republicans), and House (favorable redistricting) reelections. However, there are other extenuating circumstances that can change election outcomes such as the Tea Party. If the Tea Party succeeds in ousting moderate Republicans during the primaries – it could cost Republicans elections. For instance, if Republicans are successful in ousting Olympia Snowe (Maine) or Scott Brown (Massachusetts) with more conservative candidates – they will most certainly lose their reelection bids in these left leaning states.