The U.S. Political Map is Purple

During the 2010 midterm elections conservative pundits put up maps showing the U.S. voting differentials between Republicans and Democrats. Regions where voters favored Republicans the electoral map turned red and in regions where voters favored Democrats the map turned blue. The map of the U.S. looked completely red except for few blue specks here and there. But Republicans and conservatives should not be fooled by these theatrics because the political landscape in the U.S. is purple (an even mixture of red of blue).

To properly illustrate the political landscape in our country, I have devised a simple formula to calculate the true liberal or conservative nature of each state and or region of the country. The formula consists of giving each a party a point for each House seat they hold, 5 points for each Senate seat, and 10 points for each Governor seat. This means there will be a total of 1435 points awarded (435 for the House, 500 each for the Senate and Governorships). Using this formula we can obtain the following breakdown of conservatism and liberalism in our country:

New England Region: Maine (+18), New Hampshire (-8), Vermont (-21), Connecticut (-25), Rhode Island (-22), and Massachusetts (-20). In 2008, the New England region was dominate by Democrats by a score of 107 to 35 and their dominance continued in 2010 by a score of 110 to 32 (77% to 23%). The numbers in parenthesis after the state name denotes its political affiliation after the 2010 midterms. A positive number indicates a conservative state whereas a negative number illustrates a liberal state. The more positive the number the more conservative the state is and vice versa.

Mid Atlantic Region: New York (-31), New Jersey (-1), Delaware (-21), Maryland (-24), Virginia (+15), and West Virginia (-19). In 2008, this region was dominated by the Democrats by a score of 167 to 20. However, by 2010, the GOP dramatically cut into that lead by a 135 to 52 (72% to 28%) score.

South Region: North Carolina (-11), South Carolina (+24), Georgia (+23), Kentucky (+3), Florida (+23), Alabama (+25), Mississippi (+22), Tennessee (+25), Arkansas (-8), and Louisiana (+15). The Republicans dominated this region in 2008 by a 188 to 105 score and increased on that lead in 2010 to 217 to 76 (74% to 26%).

West Region: California (-35), Oregon (-23), Washington (-21), Hawaii (-22), and Alaska (+11). It may be hard to believe, but this region has swung further left over the past two years. In 2008, the Democrats dominated this region 110 to 60, but in 2010 they won the region by 130 to 40 score (74% to 26%).

Plains Region: Texas (+34), Oklahoma (+23), Kansas (+23), Nebraska (+13), South Dakota (+11), and North Dakota (+11). In 2008, Republicans dominated this region 116 to 50 and in 2010 they increased their stranglehold on the region to 141 to 25 (85% to 15%).

Mountain West Region: New Mexico (-1), Arizona (+22), Colorado (-19), Utah (+21), Nevada (+11), Wyoming (+21), Montana (-19), and Idaho (+22). In 2008, the Democrats won this region 97 to 92, but in 2010 the Republican regained control 122 to 65 (65% to 35%).

Great Lakes Region: Pennsylvania (+17), Ohio (+15), Michigan (+3), Indiana (+23), Illinois (-8), Wisconsin (+12), Minnesota (-20), Iowa (+9), and Missouri (-7). In 2008, the Democrats dominated this region 204 to 85, but 2010 was a much different story with the Republicans winning the region 167 to 122 (58% to 42%).

First of all, it is important to note the U.S. election map generally looks red because Republicans do well in rural areas (less population, but more land mass) and Democrats do well in urban areas (more population, less land mass). And anyone with any commonsense realizes that the people (electorate) control the political landscape. The amount of land one owns does not increase or decrease the value of person’s vote. Unfortunately, this is exactly how a U.S. political map distorts political affiliation.

The Republicans have taken over 2 regions since the 2008 election, and now the Republicans have majorities in four of the seven regions – this is hardly a solid red nation. And the three regions held by the Democrats are solid blue. In fact; the Democrats gained in dominance in both the Northeast and West Regions. This tells me that the people in these regions are happy with the status quo despite the fact that many of liberal states in these regions are in the worse shape in terms of debt and unemployment. Thus, it appears the West and Northeast will be forever blue and never turn red. However, the Great Lakes region is a great example of the electorate finally cluing in to the liberal failures. This union heavy region has been solid blue for decades, but they have finally had enough of liberal policies failing both the electorate and businesses. There seems to be a glimmer of hope in the Mid Atlantic region for Republicans where they gained 2 governorships in 2009 and 12 house seats in 2010 (7 in New York!). The South, Plains, and Mountain West regions are a fairly solid shade of red, but the Great Lakes Region is a leaning red shade of purple.

In terms of states, Pennsylvania is the biggest surprise for Republicans with a plus 17 rating which is fairly solid red. Even union controlled Michigan is leaning red at plus 3. On the other side of the equation both Colorado and Montana, with a minus 19 rating, are both a bit of a surprise in the generally conservative leaning Mountain West region. In the South region North Carolina has become the Democrats best state and it used to be a solid red state merely a few years back.

The Delta column in the above table indicates the gains made in each region by percent. In the New England and West region the Democrats made gains, whereas the Republicans made significant gains in each of the other 5 regions.

In 2008, the Republicans trailed Democrats nationally by a score of 839 to 596 (59% to 41%), but in 2010 Republicans regained the lead nationally 771 to 664 (53% to 47%). And if you mix colors of 53% red and 47% blue, you get a solid purple. Even in 2008, a mixture of 59% blue with 41% red is still a solid purple color. So the nation is not bleeding red after the 2010 midterms, we are still a purple nation and Republicans would be wise to understand this point. After all, it is an arrogance of power that usually leads directly to the decline of a party.